Northgate Link Debuts Prop 1 Failure

 The Northgate Link debut will be the first demonstration of the failure of Sound Transit's Prop 1 light rail extensions to reduce area roadway congestion.  Reducing congestion requires reducing the number of vehicles on roadway lanes.   For example, studies have shown limiting access to 2000 vehicles per hour assures 45 mph and maximizes lane vehicle capacity.  

A limited access lane can reduce traffic and congestion on an entire roadway by providing drivers with access to public transit. Adding a hundred high-capacity buses an hour can accommodate 10,000 riders, the equivalent of adding 5 lanes of freeway.  The only limit is the need to provide access to the added capacity.

Instead Sound Transit has spent a decade of refusing to increase bus transit ridership by failing to increase bus routes or parking.  Their long range plans in recent budgets show they intend to continue to do so with projected 2041 ridership, 15 million, less than the 20 million in 2017.

The Northgate Link debut will demonstrate the folly of Sound Transit's Prop 1 approach of extending light rail trains routed through Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel. (DSTT).  Sound Transit claims their 74-seat light rail car can accommodate 148 riders.  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT stations limited light rail trains to four cars and safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains.  The resultant 60 cars per hour and 148 capacity per car equates to 8880 rider per hour capacity in each direction. 

Extending light rail beyond UW station does nothing to increase that capacity into Seattle.  Yet Sound Transit's long range plans project the extensions will increase annual light rail ridership from ~32 million in 2021 to ~162 million in 2041.  The combination of the failure to increase bus transit ridership and delusional light rail capacity expectations portend a long term transportation debacle for the area.

Over the short term the Northgate Link debut will be the first to demonstrate Prop 1 failure.  Sound Transit could have used the  capacity to increase I-5 transit ridership, reducing congestion into Seattle.  However, they neglected to add the parking needed to access the capacity. Instead choosing to use the Link to replace bus routes.   ST 511, 512, and 513 and KCM41, reducing transit capacity into Seattle.  Reducing the number of buses on I-5 does nothing to reduce congestion.  Former bus riders added by the Link will limit access for current University Link riders.

The bottom line is Sound Transit has spent a decade of refusing to increase public transit ridership into Seattle with buses.  The Northgate Link debut will demonstrate the $1.9B they spent on the extension reduces transit capacity into Seattle, does nothing to reduce I-5 congestion into the city, and reduces access for current Central Link riders.   A precursor to similar results from the other Prop 1 extensions to Lynnwood and Federal Way on I-5 and from East Link across I-90.