IPCC Monumental Blunders

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is proceeding with its 6^th Assessment Report (6^th AR).   Their Working Group 1, consisting of three groups of ten environmental scientists, is responsible for the Physical Science Basis for the 6^th AR.  The group’s first draft underwent an expert review in 2019. The second draft review by “governments and experts” opened on 2 March 2020 and will close on 5 June.  It’s due to be finalized in April 2021 for AR6. The entire 6^th AR will be released in 2022.

When it is released it will undoubtedly reassert the claim, “Human influence on the climate system is clear”.  All the other concerns about climate change stem from concern about affects of anthropogenic emissions on global temperatures.  The basis for the “human influence” claim on temperatures was detailed in an August 2007, Scientific American article “The Physical Science behind Climate Change”. 

It described how attempts to use computer simulations to replicate measured temperatures led to the conclusion, “models using only natural forcing (i.e. without fossil emission) do not reflect the actual increases in temperature”.  They concluded the anthropogenic CO2 emissions in their computer models had to have 10 times the effect of the Sun to match measured data (The ~1.7 CO2 “forcing” was 10 times ~0.17 for Sun).

The IPCC AR5 concluded the CO2 “forcing” was 1.68 but reduced the Sun median “forcing” to 0.05.  It’s not clear why they reduced the Sun’s “forcing” to where CO2 emission had more than 30 times the affect on global temperatures as the Sun.

Measurements of CO2 show fossil emissions have had very little effect on atmospheric levels.  The IPPC AR5 reported CO2 emission increased from 5.3 Gigatons carbon (GtC) in 1990 to 9.9 GtC in 2011.  The 85% CO2 increase raised atmospheric CO2 from 354 parts per million (ppm) to 390 ppm in 2011, a 10% increase.  The 9.9 GtC in 2011 added 2 ppm to atmospheric CO2 levels compared to the 1.5 ppm added by 5.3 GtC in 1990.  Clearly nearly all of the CO2 emissions were offset by increased dissolution into ocean, belying any IPCC contention they had 30 times the affect of the Sun.   

The IPCC decision to minimize Sun’s impact on temperatures also ignores 800,000 years of ice core data.  They showed global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels for the four prior Interglacial periods and the current warming out of the last ice age.  The four prior periods show CO2 level was the result of increased out gassing from ocean when temperatures were warming and increased dissolution when temperatures were cooling.  Both warming and cooling and CO2 increasing and decreasing were driven by the Sun. 

The clearest example was the Sun warmed global temperatures during the Eemian Interglacial Period some 126,000 years ago to 4 deg C higher than current levels.  Yet CO2 levels never exceeded 290 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in atmosphere. 

The entire developed world has already paid heavily for climatologists’ conclusion “models using only natural forcing do not reflect the actual increases in temperature”.   (It’s the ultimate example of problem with all computer models, “Garbage in, Garbage out”).  The IPCC made two monumental blunders.  The first was their failure to recognize ice core data showed the dominant affect of the Sun on both temperatures and CO2 levels. 

The second was their failure to recognize most of the increase in CO2 from fossil emission has been offset by increased dissolution of CO2 to ocean. Again, an 85% increase in emissions only increased the rate CO2 increased from 1.5 ppm to 2.0 ppm per year.  One could anticipate doubling the emissions would increase annual rate to 2.5-2.6 ppm.

  

However even if the added emissions doubled the annual increase to 4 ppm, the 50 years of increase would raise CO2 by 200 ppm, raising CO2 from 410 to 610 ppm, or from 0.041 to 0.061%, a tiny fraction of the 96.5% currently warming Venus.  The idea that increase constitutes an existential threat to our climate is absurd.  (The other option is to believe the IPCC claim current global warming is due to 96% of radiation is currently reflected back to earth, leaving only 4% more no matter how much additional fossil emissions add.)

It's only a question of when not whether, if not the IPCC, other scientists recognize that reality.  Again the sooner the better.