ST CEO Rogoff”s Real 2020 Budget Debacle.

The previous post detailed how Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s 2020 “budget” for public transit operation was limited to one page with how much each of the transit modes will receive but nothing as to how they will spend it.   This post details why the real 2020 budget debacle is that the more than $2 billion spent on system expansion is just the latest installment of Rogoff’s plan to spend  $96 billion on his 2019 budget for light rail extensions that do nothing to increase their capacity into Seattle.  That he compounds that problem by choosing to use light rail to replace bus routes reducing total transit capacity into the city.

The 2020 budget adds another year to Sound Transit’s decade of failure to recognize Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limitation on light rail capacity into Seattle.  The billions spent on Prop 1 extensions beyond UW, across I-90 Bridge to Bellevue, or beyond SeaTac to Federal Way will do nothing to increase that capacity.

Sound Transit compounds that problem by continuing its decade-long refusal to fund added parking or local bus routes needed for access to the light rail extensions.  (Their disdain for added bus routes is exemplified by annual bus revenue vehicle miles increasing from 11,627,380 in 2011 to 11,884,230 in 2018.)  

The lack of added access to even light rail’s limited capacity has forced Sound Transit to use it to replace existing bus routes into Seattle.  The result being Sound Transit is spending billions on Prop 1 extensions whose operation will reduce total transit capacity into the city, do little to reduce HOV lane congestion, and inevitably increase GP lane congestion. 

For example the budget includes $126 million funding for the Northgate extension.  When completed in 2021, operation of the $2.1 billion extension will result in Northgate bus riders forced to use light rail routed through the UW and Capital Hill into Seattle.  They’ll be joined by bus riders from beyond Northgate, forced to endure the hassle of transferring to the light rail route rather than commute directly into Seattle.  Worse, any light rail riders added by the extension will reduce access for current UW Link riders. 

Their exit at one of the two DSTT stations will “likely” be further from their desired destination than the stops along the bus routes they previously used.  Their return commute will require they endure the inevitable chaos resulting from thousands of riders attempting to find access at one of the two DSTT stations and the hassle of those transferring back to buses at Northgate.  Clearly Northgate operation would seem to be a disincentive to use public transit. 

The 2020 budget also includes $505 million for the $3.2-billion Lynnwood extension whose operation adds to that disincentive.  When completed in 2024, operation will simply move where many  commuters transfer to and from light rail the 8.5 miles north to Lynnwood.  The only difference being the longer route will require more light rail cars and will double its operating cost.

The $756 million spent on the East Link extension to Overlake and beyond to Redmond is even less “productive” congestion wise.  The reason being Sound Transit again insists on using the $3.6 billion project to replace I-90 buses.  However Mercer Island objections to using the island station as the terminus have resulted in Sound Transit and King County Metro halving their current I-90 corridor bus routes.  East Link operation will still result in Mercer Island being inundated with hundreds of transferees every morning and afternoon and thousands of I-90 corridor commuters will loose access to public transit.

The bottom line is the 2020 “budget” continues a decade of failure to recognize the benefits of increased bus service.  A 70-ft articulated bus can accommodate 119 sitting and standing riders.  Adding 100 such buses an hour could accommodate more than 10,000 riders, the equivalent of 5 lanes of freeway, without spending a dime on light rail extensions.  Yet Rogoff's 2019 long term budget continues Sound Transit's refusal to increase bus transit capacity until 2041.

The added bus capacity is also more than the 8880 riders per hour a 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded for light rail routed through the DSTT.  The billions spent on East Link and Central Link south will share that limited capacity.  While additional bus routes can be added to increase transit capacity, light rail capacity on the Prop 1 extensions will always be limited.  The 2020 budget is only the next installment of Rogoff’s 2019 budget plan to spend most of $96 billion on this debacle.  

This year's Sound Transit Board "likely" budget approval exemplifies their continued failure to understand the basics of effective public transit.  It's way past time for the Seattle Times to end its decade of abetting Sound Transit's incompetence and urge the board to reject the 2020 budget. That at least could be the "beginning of the end" for this debacle.