Repairing Sound Transit’s “Lost Public Trust”

The Seattle Times December 15^th editorial “Derailment Report Shows How Much Sound Transit Must Improve”, while justified, exemplifies the papers failure to recognize Sound Transit’s decade-long failure to deal with the area’s congestion problems.  The editorial critique the “trip proved catastrophic ruinous mismanagement by an agency whose operation are a massive regional concern” was well deserved. 

However the paper continues to ignore Sound Transit’s need to “repair its lost public trust” goes way beyond the need for “structural safety reforms”.   Sound Transit has spent a decade refusing to recognize the limited capacity of light rail routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT).  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the tunnel limited light rail capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction. 

Yet Sound Transit decided to use the billions from 2008 Prop 1 approval extending light rail routed through the tunnel, doing nothing to increase that capacity.  Worse, they've chosen to use Prop 1 extensions’ limited capacity, not to add transit capacity into the city, but to replace existing bus routes, reducing total capacity into the city.  Thus, Sound Transit plans to spend billions on light rail extensions from UW to Northgate and beyond and across I-90 to Bellevue and beyond that will increase congestion into the city.

Sound Transit’s use of University Link to replace local bus routes in Seattle was effective because it not only provided light rail access into Seattle, it provided Seattleites with light rail access to the UW. They could have also used it to replace 520 bus routes into Seattle with a T/C at the UW station. The T/C would have provided an interface between bus routes and light rail, benefiting east side commutes into Seattle, and Seattleites with BRT commute to eastside. 

The costs would have been minimal and while the T/C would do nothing to increase transit capacity it would allow existing capacity to reduce congestion into the city center.   Both sides of the lake could have begun benefitting when the University Link opened in 2016.

Instead Sound Transit has spent the last five years on the extension to Northgate.  When the $2.1 billion extension begins operation in 2021 they intend to use it to replace I-5 bus routes from Northgate into Seattle. Their website is claiming it will add 41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022.  (It’s not clear where all the riders will come from since bus ridership is far less and very little parking has been added to increase access)   

Also, very few of the riders will choose to go to Northgate in the morning or to Seattle in the evening.  Northgate ridership would have to average more than 6500 rph if 80% of the 49,000 riders chose to use the extension to commute into and out of Seattle during the two 3-hour peak commutes. Clearly Northgate operation will limit access to Central Links 8880-rph capacity into Seattle for University Link riders.

Yet Sound Transit also intends to use the $3.2 billion Lynnwood extension to replace bus routes between Lynnwood and Northgate.  They predict the 8.5-mile extension will add 47,000 to 55,000 riders by 2026.  Again with very few  “reverse commuters", light rail ridership would have to average more than 7000 rph to accommodate 80% of the 55,000 riders.  That ridership would severely limit access to light rail at the Northgate station.  Spending $3 billion on the 16.3-mile extension to Everett to add 37,000 to 45,000 more light rail riders is even more absurd.

Clearly attempting to use light rail to replace I-5 buses is not the answer. While its too late to do anything about the Northgate extension, its use should be limited to providing I-5 commuters with access to UW. Sound Transit should divert the Lynnwood extension funds towards implementing bus routes to Northgate and adding buses directly into Seattle.  

An additional 100 high capacity buses an hour could accommodate more than 10,000 riders, adding the equivalent of 5 highway lanes to I-5 capacity.  The only limitation being the need for access with added parking or local bus routes to stations. HOT could be implemented on an HOV lane with rates raised to assure 45 mph for commute.  4^th Ave could be converted into an elongated T/C with dedicated drop off and pick up locations for each routes egress and access. 

South of Seattle, Sound Transit claims the $1 billion, 5.3-mile extension to Federal Way will add 38,000 to 58,000 daily riders.   It’s not clear where they’ll come from since fewer than 4000 rode buses into Seattle during 2019 2^nd Quarter.  However doing so will require light rail trains average more than 7700 rph to accommodate 80% of the 58,000 riders during the peak 3-hour morning and afternoon commute. 

That’s nearly twice South Link's 4400 rph share of the DSTT capacity, clearly ending any access for Central Link riders.  Sound Transit's proposal to spend $2 billion, on the 9.7 mile extension Tacoma to add 27,000 to 37,000 more riders only adds to the absurdity.

The only way to begin accommodating the numbers of commuters Sound Transit claims for light rail is to add the 100 bus routes and their 10,000-rph capacity.  Again, doing so along an I-5 HOT lane to the 4^th Ave T/C.

Along I-90, Sound Transit should have never been allowed to divert half the DSTT capacity across the Lake Washington bridge center roadway to Bellevue.  It didn’t have the transit capacity needed to reduce congestion on the bridge and it precluded 2-way bridge center roadway bus routes that would. 

Sound Transit’s failure to even consider additional center roadway bus routes as a "low-cost option" violated RCW requirements.  They ignored FHWA concerns 4^th lanes added to bridge outer roadways would not make up for the loss of the two center roadway lanes.  The East Link funds would have been far better spent on a West Link extension.

Unfortunately, like the Northgate extension, Sound Transit plans for using East Link to replace cross-lake buses will increase, not decrease congestion.  The problem being Sound Transit doesn’t merely replace current I-90 bus routes, they and King County have agreed to halve corridor bus routes when East Link begins operation. They did so in order to use Mercer Island light rail station to terminate I-90 corridor bus routes.  Thus East Link operation will result in thousands of commuters loosing access to transit, adding to the I-90 Bridge outer roadway congestion from loss of center roadway.

Again, the only solution for I-90 congestion, like along I-5, is to add something like a 100 buses an hour across I-90 Bridge into Seattle.  While some would include a stop on Mercer Island most would go directly into Seattle an I-90 HOT lane to a 4^th Ave T/C. Seattleites could use the return routes to commute to Bellevue T/C,

Clearly reducing congestion on I-5, I-90, or SR520 requires adding not only hundreds of additional bus routes into Seattle but thousands of additional parking stalls or local bus routes to T/C with access to buses into Seattle.  Instead Sound Transit has spent a decade refusing to increase ST Express revenue vehicle hours. CEO Rogoff’s 2019 Budget continues Sound Transit's  failure to increase bus ridership until 2041.  

The Seattle Times needs to recognize that if Sound Transit is to “repair its lost public trust” they need to do so with proposals to divert money from light rail extensions to added parking and local bus routes to T/Cs with added bus routes into Seattle. Every year the Times continues abiding Sound Transit's failure to increase bus transit capacity adds to the waste and increases congestion.