Traffic Lab Continues to Enable Sound Transit Fantasy

The previous post opined the October, Sound Transit 2019 budget for 2017 to 2041 should have been a “wake-up” call for those concerned with the area’s congestion problem.  It also concluded the Seattle Times had played a major role in enabling Sound Transit since Prop 1 passed,  spending billions on light rail extensions that have done nothing to ease that congestion.  The Nov. 10^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab B1 page article, “Snohomish County bus drivers get I-5 shoulder lane access” exemplifies the Traffic Lab continuing to ignore that reality.   

The article describes the shoulder lanes as, “The first Sound Transit 3 project completed since voters approved the massive rail and bus expansion program in 2016”.  The Traffic Lab is apparently unaware Sound Transit’s 2019 budget shows they continue their decade long failure to increase bus revenue hours by refusing to increase bus ridership between 2017 and 2041.

They abet Sound Transit CEO Rogoff claim the shoulder lanes are “one way we’re able to reduce travel time for I-5 bus commuters”.   A 2015 PSRC report showed 2014 HOV travel times during morning commute averaged 75 minutes between Everett and Seattle.   Since travel times have presumably increased it’s unlikely any purported 4-5 minutes faster will make much difference.

The abide Rogoff's blatantly absurd claim the shoulder lane will “make a difference for people who travel our congested roads every day”. The Traffic Lab apparently doesn’t recognize reducing commute times only reduces congestion if they attract more transit riders.  All the P&R lots with access to I-5 have been full for years.  Yet Sound Transit has refused to add any parking, waiting until 2024 to begin adding a measly 8560 stalls over the next 17 years.   Again, they’ve also refused to increase the number of bus routes for ten years and their 2019 budget continues doing so until 2041.

The Traffic Lab article calls the shoulder lanes “an early deliverable that will ease commuting pain until rail expansion completion ends years and decades of congestion”.   Again it’s bad enough they concur with Rogoff claim shoulder lanes will “ease commuting pain”.  Their claim “rail expansion completion” will “end years and decades of congestion” is presumably based on Sound Transit’s 2019 budget.   It showed they intend to spend $96 billion implementing Rogoff’s new mission statement: “Connecting more people to more places".  That annual light rail ridership will increase from 20 million in 2017 to 162 million in 2041;  ~60,000 weekday average in 2017 to ~500,000 weekday average in 2041.

The previous post detailed how a 2004 PSRC study concluded Sound Transit decision to route Central Link through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limited its total capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction, or 17760 rph total capacity.  Whatever part of the $96 billion is spent extending light rail will do nothing to increase the DSTT capacity.  It will take 28 hours for light rail to accommodate the 500,000 “daily" riders through the DSTT with PSRC estimate.  

Clearly Sound Transit, apparently with Traffic Lab concurrence, has a “unique” way to calculate transit system capacity.  Sound Transit plans and Traffic Lab’s apparent concurrence with plans to limit additional parking also “suggests” they have their own way of providing access to this capacity.  That only a fraction of light rail riders will attempt to use the two limited-size stations in the DSTT for egress from, and access to, light rail. 

The bottom line is Sound Transit has been allowed to spend billions and years on light rail extensions that will do nothing to increase transit capacity.   Their budget summary for 2019 calls it “a year of record ridership, heavy construction, and intense planning work as we continue building the most ambitious transit system expansion plan in the nation”.  The reality is the $2.1 billion they intend to spend in 2019 reflects more billions and another year of failure to reduce the area’s congestion. Sound Transit’s plans to spend $96 billion may be the most “ambitious transit system expansion” in the country.   It’s way past time to recognize the "expansion" will do nothing to reduce congestion.

I's "possible" the Traffic Lab was not aware of Sound Transit's October 2019 budget plans for 2017 to 2041 when they wrote the Nov. 10th article.  That potential "delinquency" doesn't change the conclusion the article's support for shoulder lanes indicates they are going to continue enabling Sound Transit's ST3 funded fantasy.

 Unfortunately they’re not alone.  More on that later.