Traffic Lab Abides Sound Transit Financial Plan

The previous post detailed how the Seattle Times Traffic Lab Nov 10^th “Shoulder Lane” article continued their decade long willingness to, if not actively support, abet Sound Transit’s failure to deal with the area’s congestion.   That Sound Transit not only ignored “conventional” methods for calculating transit capacity, they failed to add parking for access to light rail for commutes into the city and platform space in stations for their return.

This post opines the Traffic Lab also continues to abide Sound Transit's claims the extensions will now cost and how they will be funded. The initial estimates for funding were included in an April 4^th 2015 Seattle Times “Special to the Times” editorial by Sound Transit Board members, Strickland, Roberts, and Marchione,  “How to get Puget Sound Traffic moving:  Allow a vote on a package to fully fund light rail”. 

It included the following excerpts

The case for expanding our region’s mass-transit infrastructure cannot be overstated. 

The public vote can’t happen without action by the legislature.

We urge lawmakers grant full taxing authority of $15 billion so Sound Transit can put a measure before voters in November 2016.

The title “suggested” the board did not intend to include increased bus transit as part of “expanding our regions mass-transit infrastructure”. That’s consistent with their refusal to increase bus transit capacity since Prop 1 passed.

The Seattle Times urged legislators in 2015 to enact legislation enabling ST3 vote.  Their support and Sound Transit’s agreement to contribute $518 million to the state’s general fund undoubtedly played a major role in persuading legislatures to allow the vote  

However, the Sound Transit Board quickly concluded an additional $15 billion wasn’t sufficient.  They used the legislation to extend proposed taxes to where Sound Transit 3 evolved into plans to spend $54 billion and 25 years extending light rail 62 miles.  The Sound Transit 3 budget included estimates $36 billion would come from taxes. 

The Sound Transit ballot resolution left it to the discretion of future boards as to whether the ST3 taxes would be extended beyond the 25 years. This prompted a Times Oct 28 ^th, 2016 editorial urging voters reject ST3, forcing Sound Transit return with a measure specifying which taxes would be terminated and when.  Yet Sound Transit Board retained discretion to extend taxes. 

A Nov 4^th 2016 front-page Traffic Lab article concluded ST3 “would not reduce congestion”.  The best they could say was it “offers an escape from traffic misery for people who can reach the stations”.  (They neglected to mention any riders added by the extensions would reduce access for current riders.)   Despite these concerns the Times neglected to include auditing Sound Transit finances in their list of 10 priorities for the legislature. 

The Seattle Times apparent lack of concern about Sound Transit finances is exemplified by a lack of response to their October 2019 Proposed Budget.  What Sound Transit told voters in 2016 would cost $54 billion over 25 years will now cost $96 billion.  That most of the increase will come from estimated tax revenue that increased from $36 billion for ST3 in 2016 to $64 billion in 2018.  (Traffic Lab concern over extending taxes apparently doesn’t apply to increased taxes before 2041.)

An additional $6 billion will come from Sound Transit claim estimated 25-year fare revenue will increase from $1.5 billion in 2016 ST3 budget to $7.5 billion in 2019 budget.  Projected bus ridership and fare revenue didn’t increase, and light rail fares for the 2016 revenue were presumably similar to those in the 2019 budget.  The only rationale for the five-fold increase in revenue is a similar increase in projected ridership between 2016 and 2018.

The Seattle Times Traffic Lab, whose purported objective is to “dig into problems,” needs to query Sound Transit as to why the ST3 proposal voters approved in 2016 to fund the $54 billion, 25-year plan for “Prop 1 and beyond” light rail extensions, should cost $96 billion in 2018.  Why tax revenue needed has increased from $15 billion in 2015 to $36 billion in 2016 and $64 billion in 2018.  And why projected fare revenue increased so dramatically between the two years.

Instead they'll likely continue to abide Sound Transit fantasy.