Seattle Should Protest Lynnwood Link Grant

The Nov 20^th front-page Seattle Times Traffic Lab article, “Feds OK $1.2B for light rail heading to Lynnwood” heralding Sound Transit’s success should be cause for concern rather than a reason to cheer.  First, Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s claim the Lynnwood Link would attract 68,500 indicates he’s either incompetent or mendacious.  Second, it indicates the Times Traffic Lab, still abides Rogoff’s inept leadership.

The FTA approved the Lynnwood Link grant because they believed Rogoff's claim it would add 68,500 daily riders.   Yet Sound Transit’s 2018, 3rd quarter ridership reported express bus routes between Everett and Seattle, 510, 511, & 513, combined averaged 9270 daily riders.  Similar reports from earlier years showed riders from route 511, which started in Ashway P&R, made up about half the total.  Thus current transit ridership from Lynnwood is probably less than 5000, a tiny fraction of projected Lynnwood Link ridership. 

That raises the question,  “Where are all the “new” Lynnwood Link riders coming from?’” All the P&R lots with access to Lynnwood Link are full and Sound Transit ST3 only adds 1500 new parking stalls at the stations.  They will likely use the link to replace all the current Everett-to-Seattle bus routes.   (Switching current commuters from buses to light rail does little to reduce HOV lane congestion and nothing to reduce GP congestion.)    The Traffic Lab abiding Rogoff’s ridership claim ignores the reality that even with the former bus commuters, it’s unlikely more than a fraction of the commuters needed to live within walking distance of stations will choose to do so. 

Of even more concern the article indicates the Traffic Lab doesn’t recognize any riders added by Lynnwood Link will reduce access for current riders.   Sound Transit’s decision to make it an extension of Central Link routed through the DSTT limits its ability to accommodate them.    A 2004 PSRC concluded station lengths limited trains to four cars, that safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains, and that 148 passengers could ride in their 74-seat cars.  Thus light rail capacity in Seattle is limited to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.

Some of that capacity is already in use.   Sound Transit’s 3^rd quarter 2018 ridership reported nearly 18,000 daily rode the University Link into and out of downtown Seattle.   Sound Transit could have used a T/C at the UW as an interface with 520 BRT that would’ve added thousand of riders from both sides of Lake Washington without spending a dime on light rail extensions.   Instead they’re spending over $2 billion on a Northgate extension they’ve anticipated will add 15,000 daily riders.   Thus, when Northgate Link begins operation in 2021 it will take more than 3½ hours for the DSTT capacity to accommodate riders into and out of downtown Seattle.   Whatever riders Lynnwood Link adds will, at least during peak commute, severely restrict if not end access at Northgate and University Link stations.

What should really be of concern is the Nov 20^th article heralding the Lynnwood Link grant implies the Traffic Lab is willing to abide Rogoff’s October 2019 proposed budget.    In it he describes 2019 as “a year of record ridership, heavy construction, and intense planning work as we continue building the most ambitious transit system expansion plan in the country”.   The reality is it’s another year of spending more billions expanding a transit system that will, not only do nothing to reduce congestion, it will reduce access for current riders.  That the operating costs of the expanded transportation system will be a perpetual drain on the area's transportation funds.  

When Sound Transit’s East Link begins operation commuters south of Seattle will loose half their current Central Link capacity.    Thus the Lynnwood Link is not the first of Sound Transit’s ST3 spine extensions that will reduce access for current riders.   The Traffic Lab article also abides their Long Range 2017 to 2041 Financial Plan that increased the cost of implementing ST3 from $54 billion in 2016 to $96 billion in 2018.   That most of the increase will come from estimated tax revenue that increased from $33 billion in 2016 to $64 billion in 2018.

Rogoff’s claim for Lynnwood Link ridership pales in comparison to his 2019 long-term budget claim light rail ridership will increase from 22 million in 2017 to 162 million in 2041: ~ 500,000 each week day.  It would take 28 hours each “day” for light rail limited by the DSTT to 8880 riders per hour in each direction to accommodate that number of riders.  Rogoff clearly has his own way of calculating capacity. 

Meanwhile his long-term budget extends a decade long failure to increase bus transit capacity for the next 23 years.  The Times Traffic Lab, apparently no longer believes an April 2016 Times editorial advocating more bus transit.

The bottom line is the Nov 20^th Traffic Lab article heralding the $1.2 billion Lynnwood Link grant indicates they abide not only Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s Lynnwood Link claims, but his plans for the next 23 years.  Both need to be “persuaded” the only way to reduce congestion is to add tens of thousands of parking spaces with access to express bus routes along restricted highway lanes to an elongated T/C on 4^th Ave.  That doing so could be done for a fraction of Rogoff's ST3 costs and time.

The irony is there would be no ST3 if not for the 70% approval from Seattle area voters.  Earlier posts have urged Seattle residents to oppose East Link because its operation will halve Central Link capacity south of International District.   Riders added by extensions beyond SeaTac will exacerbate the problem.  University Link riders will loose some access when Northgate begins operation.   Even a fraction of the 68,500 daily riders the FTA grant helps will end peak commute access for University link riders.  Rogoff's ST3 plan for extensions to Everett only exacerbate the problem. 

Seattle needs to protest. Urge the Seattle Times to recognize Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s incompetent (or mendacious) leadership and end the Traffic Lab’s willingness to abide that incompetence.  Urge your legislators to demand Sound Transit be audited.  Also contact Senators Murray and Cantwell urging they reject the FTA grant sending a signal to both Sound Transit and Times. 

Sooner or later "everyone" will recognize the debacle of Rogoff's ST3.  Obviously the sooner the better.