WSDOT HOT Lanes Will Increase Revenue and Congestion

The Seattle Times, July 1^st B1 Traffic Lab article “Fueled by express tolls, state draws big plans for Lynnwood-to-Puyallup corridor” typifies the WSDOT approach to dealing with the area’s congestion problem. They herald the fact, “In their first 27 months, the I-405 HOT lanes from Lynnwood to Bellevue have collected $34 million over costs”. 

They neglect to mention they’d spent $484 million implementing the 2-year “pilot program”, that it increased GP lane congestion, and that it failed to provide the 45 mph on the HOT lanes during 90% of the peak commute.  (Despite the fact they defined peak commute as beginning at 5:00 A.M).

They’re currently planning to spend $1.2 billion in gas-tax revenue on HOT lanes between Bellevue and Renton assuming, “net income will quadruple to $68 million in 2026 after the network is done”.   Their long-term plan is to use the tolls to fund extending HOT lanes from Lynnwood to Puyallup. 

The WSDOT rationale for implementing HOT lanes is rather “unique”.  HOT fees are normally set to limit the number of vehicles on the HOV lane to what’s required to maintain the desired velocity, typically limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour for 45 mph.  However the WSDOT project director said, “toll lanes often carry 35 percent more cars per hour than general lanes. That’s because rising prices prevent toll lanes from being clogged.”  They apparently used the anticipated increased HOT lane capacity to justify implementing 2 HOT lanes between Bothell and Bellevue.

However, as mentioned earlier, the 2 HOT lanes between the two didn’t work that well; failing to reduce GP congestion or meet the 45 mph for 90% of the commute.  Implementing HOT on 2 HOV lanes restricts GP traffic to 3 lanes and increases congestion to where more commuters are willing to pay the maximum $10.00 tolls than the HOT lanes can accommodate and still achieve the 45 mph; most likely 2000 vph despite WSDOT claims for increased HOT capacity.   

The WSDOT could eliminate the HOT congestion by raising the fees to whatever is required to reduce traffic volume to achieve the 45 mph.  However, those unable to use HOT lanes would increase GP lane congestion. They could reduce congestion on both HOT and GP lanes by limiting HOT fees to one lane and allow GP use of 2^nd HOV lane.   Doing so would allow those willing to pay for assured 45 mph commutes as well as provide reliable travel times for bus routes.  The added lane would reduce GP congestion. 

Instead the WSDOT plans to implement HOT on two of 4 lanes between Bellevue to Renton and also between Highways 522 and 527.   The congestion resulting from restricting GP traffic to only 2 lanes will “likely” be even more inducement to pay the HOT fees.  The WSDOT choice with 2 HOT lanes will be either far higher tolls or far lower HOT lane velocities. 

Again, they could implement whatever fees are required to achieve the 45 mph on HOT on one lane and use 2^nd lane for GP.   The assured velocity on the HOT lane would also enable reliable bus routes.  The additional lane would reduce GP congestion and the inducement to pay the tolls.

Clearly, implementing HOT on an HOV lane will never increase its capacity by 35% over regular lanes.  Implementing HOT on one HOV lane rather than two could allow tolls sufficient to assure 45 mph throughout the commute and reduce GP congestion from an additional lane.

However, having only one HOT lane, with lower tolls from reduced congestion on GP lanes, will substantially reduce WSDOT revenue.  They need to be “persuaded” reducing congestion takes precedence over increasing revenue.