About this blog

My name is Bill Hirt and I'm a candidate to be a Representative from the 48th district in the Washington State legislature. My candidacy stems from concern the legislature is not properly overseeing the WSDOT and Sound Transit East Link light rail program. I believe East Link will be a disaster for the entire eastside. ST will spend 5-6 billion on a transportation project that will increase, not decrease cross-lake congestion, violates federal environmental laws, devastates a beautiful part of residential Bellevue, creates havoc in Bellevue's central business district, and does absolutely nothing to alleviate congestion on 1-90 and 405. The only winners with East Link are the Associated Builders and Contractors of Western Washington and their labor unions.

This blog is an attempt to get more public awareness of these concerns. Many of the articles are from 3 years of failed efforts to persuade the Bellevue City Council, King County Council, east side legislators, media, and other organizations to stop this debacle. I have no illusions about being elected. My hope is voters from throughout the east side will read of my candidacy and visit this Web site. If they don't find them persuasive I know at least I tried.

Saturday, July 28, 2018

Times Traffic Lab Incompetence Continues


The July 27th Seattle Times, Traffic Lab article,  “Cost of extending light rail to Federal Way leaps to $2.55B” is just the latest example of their incompetence.  It details how costs for the extension have escalated and the potential loss of federal grants threatens funding, but ignores the real problem.

The Traffic Lab fails to recognize the Federal Way extension, like the Lynnwood extension, will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  Even if the find the necessary funding for the extensions, they will do nothing to reduce I-5 corridor congestion.

A 2004 PSRC Technical Workbook,  “Central Puget Sound Region High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment” concluded the Downtown Seattle  Transit Tunnel (DSTT) station length limited trains to four cars and that safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains, or 60 light rail cars per hour.  The PSRC Technical Workbook also concluded the capacity of the 74-seat light rail cars was limited to 148 riders for a total capacity through the tunnel of 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction.

The extensions to Lynnwood and Federal Way do nothing to increase that capacity.  The Federal Way extension, having to share the tunnel capacity with East Link, will be limited to 4440 rph.  Since neither extension adds capacity, whatever riders they attract, will, at least during peak commute, displace those currently riding. 

For example, the article’s claim the Federal Way extension would add 36,500 daily riders will end access for current riders for more than 8 hours a day.  Sound Transit’s claim the extension to Tacoma will add up to 37,000 daily riders would double the lost access hours.  While the extension to Lynnwood and beyond to Everett will have double the Federal Way capacity, Sound Transit’s projected total ridership of up to 102,750 will end access for more than 11 hours.

The Traffic Lab needs to recognize that cost is not the problem for either extension.


Sunday, July 22, 2018

My “Unexpected General Election Candidacy's” Goal


This year, I again “unexpectedly” find myself as a “possible” candidate on the ballot for this fall's general election.  Last year I was on the general election ballot because the two other candidates to replace Dow Constantine as King County Executive were even less viable.  The Seattle Times didn’t bother to interview me, yet, without spending a dime campaigning, my candidacy as a Republican attracted over 110,000 votes last fall. 

This year, as with my previous 6 candidacies for public office, I intended to use the primary election Voters’ Pamphlet” to attract attention to this blog.  Its 450 posts detail the failure of those responsible to effectively deal with the area’s transportation problem.  I filed as an Independent to avoid taking votes from my preferred choice, Rodney Tom, whom I assumed would be the Republican candidate on the general election ballot. 

Thus I was surprised when Tom filed as a Democrat.  I was even more surprised when the two Republicans, who had initially filed for the office withdrew, leaving me as the only non-Democrat on the ballot.  Apparently Tom’s position on social issues made him more comfortable filing as a Democrat.  I have no idea what prompted the two Republicans to withdraw. 

Once again the Times neglected to interview me.   However, even they agreed Tom was the better choice this fall.  Patty Kruderer’s support for a state bank apparently dissuaded them.  As a conservative I disagreed with several of her positions, but especially objected to her rationale for a capital gains tax.   Claiming, at a recent forum, that income from the sale of stocks should be taxable while the income a lawyer gets by selling (not giving) advice, or anyone who sells his labor to his employer shouldn’t.

I assumed Tom thought his support from Democrats and Republicans would enable him to win this fall.  However, a recent Kruderer campaign flier showed a large number of organizations in the Democratic establishment supported her.  Meanwhile, Tom’s fiscal conservatism may not be sufficient to persuade Republicans to vote for a Democrat during the primary.


Thus, while I had no expectation of being a candidate this fall and have no expectation of winning, I thought I’d detail how I intend to use my general election candidacy if on the ballot.   First I would try to convince 48th District residents to demand the Redmond city council demand Microsoft severely restrict the size of underground parking for their recently announced campus expansion.  

All the north/south roads in the area are currently clogged for much of the day from the 48,000 who currently work there.  Microsoft’s plans for an additional 8000 will certainly exacerbate the problem.  They should be required to greatly expand the Connector program, initially with large numbers of vans, Connector bus routes to existing P&R’s and eventually to Microsoft P&Rs, which likely will cost less than planned underground campus parking.

Second, I would try to persuade 48th District voters and the entire east side urge the legislature use its DOT oversight to require they limit HOT on the entire I-405 corridor to a single lane.  Their plans for two HOT lanes are apparently based on the absurd claim,  “HOT lanes can accommodate 35% more vehicles than GP lanes because tolls can be raised to prevent clogging.” 

The reality is restricting GP to three lanes between Bothell and Bellevue has increased congestion to where more commuters are willing to pay the tolls than the HOT lanes can accommodate and still achieve the promised 45 mph.   The DOT is considering raising the $10 current maximum to further limit HOT use.  While raising rates will limit HOT use, the DOT should be limited to doing so on a single lane, raising them to whatever is required to maintain the 45 mph and use the additional lane to reduce GP congestion.

The DOT plan to limit GP use to two lanes on the rest of the route will surely increase GP congestion there even more.  Even higher tolls won’t achieve the 45 mph on HOT lanes during much of the commute.  Again, tolls could be set on a single lane to assure 45 mph and the additional lane would reduce GP congestion.  The assured 45 mph on HOT lanes would also provide reliable bus transit routes, increasing public transit if Sound Transit could ever be persuaded to add parking and bus service. 

Third, it’s too late to stop Sound Transit from devastating the route into the into Bellevue for an East Link extension that will increase I-90 Bridge congestion.   However, 48th District residents and the entire east side should not be required to have the vast majority of their ST3 taxes spent on light rail extensions they’ll rarely use.  I would use my candidacy to urge voters demand Attorney General Ferguson require Sound Transit comply with the Revised Code of Washington (RCW).

RCW 81.104.100 requires high capacity transportation system planning consider “A do-nothing option and a low capital option that maximizes the current system”.   Yet, Sound Transit made no attempt to consider two-way bus only lanes on I-90 Bridge center roadway, or limiting an HOV lane along I-5 to buses during peak commute.  Both would have had 10 times light rail capacity at a fraction of the cost, 10 years sooner.  Thus it’s highly unlikely Sound Transit planning for extensions beyond UW or SeaTac would comply. 

While nothing can be done about the Northgate or Angle Lake extensions, Sound Transit’s should be required to comply with RCW before proceeding with ST3 extensions to Lynnwood and Federal Way.  As the "presumptive candidate" for governor Ferguson would likely feel compelled to respond.  Sound Transit’s “likely” failure to comply with the order would keep billions of ST3 funds from being wasted on light rail extensions that will do nothing to reduce congestion and also eliminate the huge operating cost deficits with the longer routes. 

Funds that would have been wasted extending light rail could be used to add the tens of thousands of parking stalls and bus routes needed to provide the increased public transit capacity.  The only way to reduce congestion on all the major roadways; something Sound Transit has refused to do for years.  

As with my previous 6 candidacies, my candidacy is my way to make a difference.  Being on the ballot this fall enhances my ability to do so.

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Kate Riley Should Go,



A newspaper whose banner includes the “Winner of 10 Pulitzer Prizes” should not have Kate Riley as its editorial page-editor.   She simply refuses to accept the reality that one of the biggest problem facing the entire area is the failure of Sound Transit and WSDOT to effectively deal with the area’s transportation problems. 

My first experience with Ms. Riley was a 2012 interview when I first ran for public office as a candidate for the 48th District Representative.  I was asked to leave early because I persisted in my concern that the biggest problem facing the 48th District was Sound Transit’s plan to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway for an East Link light rail extension that would never have the transit capacity for future cross-lake commuters.  She was far more interested in satisfying the McCleary school funding decision.

During the next several years I referred Ms. Riley as well as several on the Seattle Times staff to hundreds of posts on this blog concerning Sound Transit’s decision to spend billions on light rail routed through a Seattle transit tunnel that severely limited its capacity.  Funds that should have been spent increasing public transit capacity with adding parking and bus routes.   She declined to even interview me when I was the King County Executive candidate in 2017.

Thus, I was somewhat surprised when asked 3 weeks ago to come to the Seattle Times on July 16th for a 10:00 am candidate evaluation interview for the 48th District Senate seat.  That ended around 8:15 am that morning when Ms. Riley called to inform me I was no longer going to be interviewed that morning but with a 4:00 pm phone call.  They never called and the other two candidates later told me Ms. Riley had told them I was unable to appear because of a scheduling conflict. 

However, Ms. Riley’s personal animus or mendacity  is not the issue.  It’s her failure to use the Times Opinion page to effectively influence transportation policies that affect the area.  It took until November, 2016 for the Seattle Times Traffic Lab to publicly concede the ST3 extensions would not reduce congestion.  Yet, even then, her opinion page failed to make auditing Sound Transit one of the 10 priorities for the legislature in 2017.  

The audit would have surely limited the damage, ending Sound Transit extensions beyond Northgate and Angle Lake.   They would have been forced to divert those funds to increased parking and bus service, something they’ve refused to do for years. 

Instead Sound Transit will be allowed to spend most of $54 billion on light rail extensions that do nothing to increase transit capacity into the city. That any riders the extensions add will simply displace current riders into the city.  That the increased operating costs for the extensions will either require huge increase in tolls or create a financial black hole for the area’s transportation funds.

For that she should be fired.

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

The DSTT Station Debacle


Countless posts on this blog have referenced an August 2004 Puget Sound Regional Council Technical Workbook, “Central Puget Sound Region, High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment”.   It concluded routing light rail through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limited capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.  They based that capacity on the conclusion DSTT station lengths limited light rail trains to 4 cars, that safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains, and that each 74-seat car could accommodate 148 riders.  

Unfortunately that document is no longer available on the Internet and Sound Transit has decreed the DSTT can accommodate 16,000 riders per hour (rph) in each direction.   Even with the 16,000 rph capacity, it will take 7 hours to accommodate the up to 112,000 riders Sound Transit claimed the ST3 extensions beyond Northgate to Everett will add; ending access for current riders and those anticipated from Northgate extension for much of the day. 

The extension beyond Angel Lake to Tacoma will presumably be limited to half the DSTT capacity.  If so, it will take nearly 11 hours to accommodate Sound Transit claims for up to 95,000 riders from those extensions, again ending access for current commuters.  Even Sound Transits earlier promises for 50,000 riders for East Link will take more than 6 hours.

Clearly Sound Transit’s promises for ST3 ridership exceed any rational capacity for light rail routed through the DSTT.  Even more “problematic” is their apparent assumption the two light rail stations in the tunnel can accommodate the return trips.  Presumably half of the up to 257,000 additional daily rides will be return trips.  Thus,  ~125,000 additional commuters will have to do so at one of the two DSTT light rail stations.

Two years ago I spent several days riding New York City subways. Subway lines there typically provide commuters with multiple stations for access.  Most stations are sized to provide commuters with access to more than 10 train cars.  Commuters pay fares to get access to the station not to ride, facilitating rapid access. Subways there provide New Yorkers with fast, reliable, high capacity transit.

The DSTT station limits on the number of light rail cars also limits the number of commuters the station can accommodate.  The idea the two stations in the DSTT can accommodate up to 125,000 additional riders during an afternoon commute goes beyond “problematic” to absurd.  The need to pay fares on the train will likely increase station times reducing train frequency, adding to the absurdity. 

Thus, the DSTT not only limits light rail capacity to a fraction of what’s required to meet Sound Transit ridership claims, the stations will never be able to accommodate the capacity it does have. It’s way past time they acknowledge both realities.

Monday, July 2, 2018

WSDOT HOT Lanes Will Increase Revenue and Congestion


The Seattle Times, July 1st B1 Traffic Lab article “Fueled by express tolls, state draws big plans for Lynnwood-to-Puyallup corridor” typifies the WSDOT approach to dealing with the area’s congestion problem. They herald the fact, “In their first 27 months, the I-405 HOT lanes from Lynnwood to Bellevue have collected $34 million over costs”. 

They neglect to mention they’d spent $484 million implementing the 2-year “pilot program”, that it increased GP lane congestion, and that it failed to provide the 45 mph on the HOT lanes during 90% of the peak commute.  (Despite the fact they defined peak commute as beginning at 5:00 A.M).

They’re currently planning to spend $1.2 billion in gas-tax revenue on HOT lanes between Bellevue and Renton assuming, “net income will quadruple to $68 million in 2026 after the network is done”.   Their long-term plan is to use the tolls to fund extending HOT lanes from Lynnwood to Puyallup. 

The WSDOT rationale for implementing HOT lanes is rather “unique”.  HOT fees are normally set to limit the number of vehicles on the HOV lane to what’s required to maintain the desired velocity, typically limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour for 45 mph.  However the WSDOT project director said, “toll lanes often carry 35 percent more cars per hour than general lanes. That’s because rising prices prevent toll lanes from being clogged.”  They apparently used the anticipated increased HOT lane capacity to justify implementing 2 HOT lanes between Bothell and Bellevue.

However, as mentioned earlier, the 2 HOT lanes between the two didn’t work that well; failing to reduce GP congestion or meet the 45 mph for 90% of the commute.  Implementing HOT on 2 HOV lanes restricts GP traffic to 3 lanes and increases congestion to where more commuters are willing to pay the maximum $10.00 tolls than the HOT lanes can accommodate and still achieve the 45 mph; most likely 2000 vph despite WSDOT claims for increased HOT capacity.   

The WSDOT could eliminate the HOT congestion by raising the fees to whatever is required to reduce traffic volume to achieve the 45 mph.  However, those unable to use HOT lanes would increase GP lane congestion. They could reduce congestion on both HOT and GP lanes by limiting HOT fees to one lane and allow GP use of 2nd HOV lane.   Doing so would allow those willing to pay for assured 45 mph commutes as well as provide reliable travel times for bus routes.  The added lane would reduce GP congestion. 

Instead the WSDOT plans to implement HOT on two of 4 lanes between Bellevue to Renton and also between Highways 522 and 527.   The congestion resulting from restricting GP traffic to only 2 lanes will “likely” be even more inducement to pay the HOT fees.  The WSDOT choice with 2 HOT lanes will be either far higher tolls or far lower HOT lane velocities. 

Again, they could implement whatever fees are required to achieve the 45 mph on HOT on one lane and use 2nd lane for GP.   The assured velocity on the HOT lane would also enable reliable bus routes.  The additional lane would reduce GP congestion and the inducement to pay the tolls.

Clearly, implementing HOT on an HOV lane will never increase its capacity by 35% over regular lanes.  Implementing HOT on one HOV lane rather than two could allow tolls sufficient to assure 45 mph throughout the commute and reduce GP congestion from an additional lane.

However, having only one HOT lane, with lower tolls from reduced congestion on GP lanes, will substantially reduce WSDOT revenue.  They need to be “persuaded” reducing congestion takes precedence over increasing revenue.