Reflections on 2018: Traffic Lab No Gift

The Seattle Times December 23^rd full-page “Reflections on 2018” claimed to be a "holiday gift for you" for their success in 2018 as "part of a local free press system that ensures popular governance and opportunity for all”.   That success was “made possible by support for our public service journalism projects, Education Lab, Traffic Lab, and Project Homeless”.  

However their education lab apparently didn’t believe a teachers competency rather than their color should determine their ability to teach area students.  That Project Homeless didn’t recognize even compassion has its limits as demonstrated by the fact Seattle homelessness now ranks behind only New York and Los Angeles despite the hundreds of millions spent attempting to reduce it.     

However the most blatant example of the dubious value of the Times “Gift for you” was their “Traffic Lab.” A project “that digs into the region’s thorny transportation issues and spotlights promising approaches to easing gridlock”.   Instead it continued the Times decade-long failure to recognize “the region’s thorniest transportation issue” is Sound Transit’s 2008 decision to route their Prop 1 light rail extensions through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT). 

An August 2004 Puget Sound Regional Council Technical Workbook, “Central Puget Sound Region High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment” concluded the DSTT limited its capacity, to 8880 riders per hour in each direction. (Unfortunately the PSRC has also decided to abet Sound Transit since the 2004 report is no longer available on Internet.) Previous posts have detailed how Sound Transit Board CEO Peter Rogoff’s 2019 Budget demonstrate he plans to spend $96 billion between 2017 and 2041 continuing Sound Transit's decade-long failure to recognize that “issue”.   

Rogoff's claims light rail ridership will increase to 162 million in 2041 demonstrate either blatant mendacity or monumentally incompetence regarding transit capacity.  His 2019 budget increases ST3 cost from the $54 billion voters approved in 2016 to $96 billion in 2018 raising questions about his ability to control light rail construction costs.  Yet the Sound Transit board recently granted him a new three-year contract that included a 11% raise and a $16,000 bonus, raising his 2019 salary $364,000.   It doesn’t take much “digging” to recognize the Sound Transit Board and CEO Rogoff are a “thorny transportation issue”.

The other dubious Traffic Lab “gift” is their approach to “spotlighting promising approaches to easing gridlock” consists of imposing tolls on the area’s roadways.   They apparently don’t recognize, unless commuters have a viable alternative, tolls only increase their cost of commuting.  That the only viable alternative is to allow more commuters to use public transit.

Instead the Traffic Lab ignores Sound Transit’s decade long failure to increase transit ridership.  All the parking with access to transit has been full for years and Sound Transits total bus revenue miles haven’t significantly increased since 2008.  Yet Rogoff’s 2019 Budget ST3 plans for added parking consist of waiting until 2024 to begin adding 8560 parking stalls over the next 17 years.  He demonstrates contempt for increased bus ridership by failing to increase anticipated ridership between 2017 and 2041.    

The Traffic Lab’s dubious “Gift” extends beyond apparent concurrence with Sound Transit plans for I-5 and I-90 to failure to recognize the “thorny transportation issue” with WSDOT plans for 2 HOT lanes on I-405.   The WSDOT apparently based their decision to implement 2 HOT lanes on the I-405 project director’s “dubious” claim, “toll lanes often carry 35 percent more cars per hour than general lanes. That’s because rising prices prevent toll lanes from being clogged.” 

The WSDOT ignores the failure of the 2 HOT lanes between Bothell and Bellevue to meet the 45 mph for 90% of the peak commute, despite the fact they assume peak commute begins at 5:00 am.  Only about 50% of current HOT commuters likely average the 45 mph.  They problem being maintaining 45 mph requires limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour. 

Limiting GP to only 3 lanes between Bothell and Bellevue increases congestion to the point where more than 2000 drivers per hour are willing to pay the current HOT tolls.  WSDOT plans to limit GP traffic to only 2 lanes on the rest of the route will surely exacerbate the problem there.  The increased congestion on HOT lanes also increases bus commute times reducing the incentive to use public transit if Sound Transit ever decides to increase capacity.

The Traffic Lab “gift” of “spotlighting promising approaches to easing gridlock” didn’t include limiting I-405 HOT to one lane.  Tolls could be set to whatever was required to reduce traffic to 2000 vph.  The additional GP lane would reduce congestion for those vehicles, potentially reducing the need for raise HOT fees.  The assured 45 mph HOT velocities would make BRT attractive to thousands more commuters than Sound Transit currently envisions.

The bottom line is if the Seattle Times wants to call their Traffic Lab a “gift” to the area they need to recognize Sound Transit and WSDOT failure to deal with the area’s congestion.   Sooner or later everyone will recognize that reality.  Unfortunately every year the Times doesn’t is another year of billions wasted and increased congestion.

Seattle Times Abides Sound Transit Board Incompetence

Previous posts on this blog have opined Sound Transit CEO Peter Rogoff”s 2019 Budget Long-Term plan for 2017 should have been a “wake-up” call for those concerned about the area’s congestion.  That his past three years as CEO were just the precursor for his plans for the next 23.   That the Seattle Times Traffic Lab refused to acknowledge Rogoff’s plan for “building the most ambitious transit system expansion plan in the country” will do absolutely nothing to reduce the area’s congestion.  That the Sound Transit Board should recognize that failure and terminate Rogoff. 

Instead, the Dec 15^th Seattle Times B1 page article announced the Sound Transit executive committee had “unanimously approved” a three-year contract that includes a $16,000 bonus in addition to an 11% increase raising his salary to $364,000.   Apparently the entire 18-member Sound Transit Board will approve the $16,000 bonus this week.  Board Vice-Chair John Marchioni said of Rogoff, “Peter has done a great job in building relationships with other governments” for “the most ambitious transit project in the United States right now”. 

The Sound Transit Board’s decision to give Peter Rogoff a new three-year contact continues their decade-long failure to effectively direct Sound Transit. The dictionary defines a board as “a group of persons who manage or control a business”.   Board members are normally selected because they have demonstrated the level of competence required to direct the business.  Those owning the company (e.g. stock holders) can vote to replace them if not satisfied with their direction.

However, residents (owners) in this area have no say in who serves on the board, despite having to pay for funding Sound Transit.  While most members have been elected to some position, there is no requirement they have the competence needed to effectively direct transit policy.  

Instead the Sound Transit Board’s response to CEO Rogoff’s 2019 Budget long-term plan for 2017 to 2041 shows they fail to understand what’s required to reduce the area’s congestion.   That Rogoff clearly doesn’t understand the fundamentals of effective public transit.  It appears more and more likely he was hired as a reward for the initial FHA Lynnwood grant rather than for any level of public transit competence. 

During his nearly 3 years heading up Sound Transit he’s played a major role in getting voter approval of ST3 "Prop 1 and Beyond” funding.  However much of that support was predicated on his claims for anticipated extension ridership that were sheer fantasy.  The irony is whatever ridership they do attract will reduce access for Seattle residents whose 70% approval enabled ST3.

Rogoff has apparently never recognized the PSRC concluded in 2004 that light rail routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) will always be limited to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.  (His 2019 Budget claim for ~500,000 weekday riders in 2041 ignores that reality)  That even this capacity will be of limited value without access from additional parking or adequate platform space at DSTT stations.  (His approach to adding access is limited to waiting until 2024 to begin adding 8560 parking spots over the next 17 years.) 

Rogoff’s tenure as CEO has not only resulted in Sound Transit continuing to waste billions on light rail extensions to Northgate, Angel Lake, and Bellevue, he has continued their decade-long failure to increase transit bus capacity.  The 2019 budget he presented to the board in October continues his failure to increase bus ridership until at least 2041. 

Rogoff’s current contract expiring next month could have provided the board with an opportunity to replace him.  Again, his October 2019 Budget’s long-term plan for 2017-2041 should have exemplified his incompetence to board members.  During his tenure, ST3, which was enabled by the legislature to provide $15 billion over 15 years has evolved into plans to use $64 billion in taxes to implement a $96 billion transit system expansion. 

The board should have recognized the billions he plans to spend on light rail won’t increase transit capacity into the city but will reduce access for current riders.  That operating costs with the extensions will either require an increase in fares or a large subsidy to cover the fare-box revenue shortfall.  Clearly the Sound Transit board’s decision to continue Rogoff as CEO reflects a lack of competence regarding public transit.

However the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, purportedly created to “dig into the region’s thorny transportation issues,” should have recognized CEO Rogoff’s ST3 plans for 2017-2041 were not “a promising approach to easing gridlock”.   The Times lack of concern in the December 15^th article continues their years of abiding Sound Transit incompetence.  The entire area will pay a heavy price for as long as they continue to do so.

Sound Transit Board Fires CEO Peter Rogoff

(I submitted the below post to Seattle Times in response to their request for headlines readers would like to see in 2019.  I posted it since they will likely ignore it.)

Sound Transit Board Fires CEO Peter Rogoff

Today the Sound Transit Board of Directors announced their decision to terminate CEO Peter Rogoff.    While he was successful in garnering public support for extending light rail with ST3 he has failed to recognize the limitations on light rail capacity with the decision to route the Prop 1 extensions through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT).   

While he’s apparently managed to effectively direct the construction of the light rail extensions he’s failed to recognize their capacity is limited by the number of train cars per hour times the number of riders in each car.   That in 2004 the PSRC concluded DSTT station lengths limited Central Link trains to 4 cars, that safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains, and that each 74-seat car could accommodate 148 riders.

The resultant 8880 riders per hour in each direction clearly belies Rogoff’s claim the Lynnwood Link would attract 68,500 riders daily.  The fact the ridership claim was the principle reason the FTA recently granted Sound Transit $1.2 billion for funding casts a cloud over future federal support for the entire area’s transit system funding.

Rogoff also apparently doesn’t recognize the need to provide riders with access to light rail for the commutes both into and out of Seattle.   All the P&R’s with access to light rail stations have been full for years yet rather than add parking Sound Transit has decided to reserve 50% of stalls in existing P&Rs for late arrivals; essentially ending access to transit for half those arriving earlier.  Meanwhile only a total of 1500 stalls will be added at the Lynnwood Link stations.  Instead he plans to use the Lynnwood Link to replace bus routes; adding light rail riders but doing little to reduce HOV congestion and nothing to reduce GP congestion.

Central Link’s limited capacity also means any riders the Lynnwood Link attracts will reduce access for those currently riding University Link and soon to be riding Northgate extension.  (When East Link begins operation south end commuters will also loose half their current capacity.) 

Those able to ride the Central Link extensions into Seattle will likely have problems finding access for the return trip.  Presumably most will attempt to do so at the two stations in the DSTT.   However it’s questionable whether stations that limit trains to 4-cars will have the platform space, approximately 7 sq ft per rider, needed for even the PSRC’s limited ridership.

Rogoff’s failure to recognize Central Link “limitations” is particularly evident in Sound Transit’s 2019 Budget long-term plan for 2017 to 2041.  His Lynnwood Link claim for 68,500 daily riders is dwarfed by the budget 2041 claim for 162 million riders or ~ 500,000 weekday riders; the vast majority of whom will use Central Link extensions.  Even a fraction of that ridership would end access for many light rail riders.

Rogoff’s matches his failure to recognize the limitations of light rail with his apparent disdain for the benefits of increased bus transit capacity.  While he promises BRT along I-405 in 2024 his 2019 budget long term plan continues the decade long refusal to increase bus transit capacity until at least 2041.  Sound Transit only adds 400 parking stalls along I-405 yet plans to spend $300 million on a Kirkland T/C without any parking for access.  They refused to include BRT on SR520 as part of ST3, instead intend to study it for later.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board should fire Rogoff.  He not only fails to recognize the DSTT limitations on light rail capacity, he refuses to implement the transit capacity available with added bus service.  He also refuses to add the parking needed for access to either transit mode. That riders added by the light rail extensions will reduce or potentially end access for current riders.

Company boards are responsible for directing company policies.  Members serve on boards because they’ve demonstrated the level of competence needed to help direct company policies.  Anyone with a modicum of transit competence would recognize CEO Rogoff’s long-range plan demonstrates his inability to effectively head Sound Transit.  His 2019 Budget spends billions more and another year on fatally flawed light rail extensions.  The Sound Transit Board has an obligation to make it his last.

Mayor Durkan Needs New Transit Advisors

The Wednesday Seattle B1 Times Traffic Lab headline, “Durkan associate gets $720K to steer light-rail planning” could have been welcome news for the entire area.  It could have heralded Mayor Durkan’s recognition Sound Transit needed new “direction”.  That ST3 light rail extensions routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) will be a disaster for the entire area.   

CEO Rogoff’s 2019 budget long-range includes plans to spend $96 billion and 25 years implementing “the most ambitious transit system expansion plan in the country”.  However. it will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  East Link operation will halve transit capacity into Seattle from SeaTac.  Any riders added by ST3 funding will further reduce that access as well as access for those currently using University Link.  Residents throughout the area will be forced to perpetually subsidize the added operating costs with Rogoff’s “transit system expansion plan.” 

Durkan’s previous support for increased Metro service for Seattle shows she recognizes the benefits of public transit.  However her decision to have Sound Transit pay Anne Fennessy, someone she’s know for years, $720K to “steer light rail planning” will do nothing to increase public transit into the city. 

Since 2010, Sound Transit has already paid her firm, Cocker Fennessy, $409,308 for advice.  Any consultant with a modicum of transit competence would’ve recognized light rail routed through the DSTT would never add the transit capacity needed.  Sound Transit’s decision to pay her an additional $720K “suggests” they anticipate continued “favorable” treatment.

Mayor Durkan’s deputy Mayor Shefari Ranganathan is the mayor’s designee to handle Fennessy’s monthly billings.  A November 17, 2017 editorial described her selection with the following:

It was surprising that one of the first people Durkan hired (Ranganathan) to help lead the city, as deputy mayor, is an activist with no significant management experience.

The editorial also included Ranganathan’s biography, presumably Durkan’s reason for hiring her:

Shefari Ranganathan, Executive director of Seattle-based Transportation Choices Coalition, is an effective political organizer and policy influencer. TCC led campaigns, including Sound Transit 3 that garnered tens of billions of tax dollars for transit projects.

While she had been an “effective organizer and policy influencer” there was no mention as to what qualified her to “influence” public transit planning.  Again, anyone with a modicum of transit competence would’ve recognized ST3 light rail capacity problems.

Clearly neither Fennessy nor Ranganathan have shown an ability to do so.   It’s not clear why Mayor Durkan chose her associate to receive $270K, beginning in 2018, to “steer” light rail planning for a Ballard Link that won’t begin service until 2035.  The area faces far more imminent transit problems.  If she really wants to demonstrate concern for those who’d like to ride transit as well as those who will pay for it, she needs to hire new transit advisors. 

Competent advisors would warn her Seattle light rail commuters will loose access with Rogoff's ST3 extensions; that the billions Sound Transit collects from residents throughout the area will be spent implementing extensions that do nothing to reduce congestion into the city but whose longer route operating costs will increase the subsidies the entire area will have to pay. 

Legislators Should Demand Sound Transit Audit

The previous post detailed why Seattle should protest $1.2 Lynnwood Link FTA grant.   That Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s claims it would attract 68,500 daily riders demonstrated he’s either totally incompetent or blatantly mendacious.  That extending Central Link routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) severely limited capacity to where, at least during peak commute, any riders added by the extension will reduce access for future Northgate riders and current University Link riders.

The post also opined the Seattle Times Traffic Lab article had, if not cheered, abided Rogoff’s claim.  That it showed a similar lack of concern about Rogoff’s 2019 Budget even more absurd claim light rail ridership would increase to 162 million by 2041.  That Rogoff’s ST3, “the most ambitious transit system expansion plan in the country,” would do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  That any riders added by the “expansion” beyond Lynnwood to Everett or beyond Angel Lake to Federal Way and Tacoma will further reduce access for riders on current routes in Seattle.   

The budget also showed Sound Transit intended to continue their decade long refusal to increase bus transit capacity until at least 2041.  Yet the Seattle Times, who earlier advocated for increased bus transit, continues to ignore concerns.  Senators Murray and Cantwell have, as yet, declined to respond to emails urging they oppose FTA grant. 

However the legislatures transportation committee, whose members have previously ignored concerns should be more receptive.   What began as Sound Transit Board members asking legislators to enable voters approve $15 billion to “fully fund light rail” has morphed into Sound Transit 2019 budget plans to spend $96 billion between 2017 and 2041.   That Sound Transit’s 2019 budget projects the legislation enabling 15 years of car tab fees, property and sales taxes that was supposed to provide $15 billion is now expected to generate $64 billion between 2017 and 2041.  

Legislators should be particularly concerned both ST3 costs and tax revenue are “substantially” higher than the $54 billion and $33 billion voters were told prior to the 2016 vote.  Sound Transit may have been treated “favorably” because contractors “benefitted” Republicans and their unions “benefitted” Democrats.   However they have an obligation to assure their constituents will “benefit” from the taxes they’ve already paid and will continue to do so for as long as the Sound Transit Board decrees they’re needed.    

They could do that with an audit.  The Seattle Times for years has refused to make auditing Sound Transit a legislative priority.  Their lack of concern about Sound Transit 2017-to-2041 plans indicates they will continue to do so.  It's particularly "unfortunate" for Seattle residents whose 70% approval enabled ST3 and who will loose access as a result.  

The legislature In 2008 funded an Independent Review Team because of concerns about I-90 Bridge’s ability to withstand loads from light rail trains.   They can surely fund an outside audit forcing Sound Transit to justify the huge increase in costs and taxes from what they told residents prior to the ST3 vote.  

Even more important the audit could assess the ability of Sound Transit’s 2019 Budget long-range pan to effectively deal with the area’s congestion.  Sooner or later "everyone" will recognize Sound Transit's "probable" failure to do so  Until they're audited the 2019 budget proposal is just the first of years and billions wasted on Rogoff's "most ambitious  transit system plan in the country".  Like the Seattle Times Traffic Lab the legislature's transit committees need to be "persuaded".

Seattle Should Protest Lynnwood Link Grant

The Nov 20^th front-page Seattle Times Traffic Lab article, “Feds OK $1.2B for light rail heading to Lynnwood” heralding Sound Transit’s success should be cause for concern rather than a reason to cheer.  First, Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s claim the Lynnwood Link would attract 68,500 indicates he’s either incompetent or mendacious.  Second, it indicates the Times Traffic Lab, still abides Rogoff’s inept leadership.

The FTA approved the Lynnwood Link grant because they believed Rogoff's claim it would add 68,500 daily riders.   Yet Sound Transit’s 2018, 3rd quarter ridership reported express bus routes between Everett and Seattle, 510, 511, & 513, combined averaged 9270 daily riders.  Similar reports from earlier years showed riders from route 511, which started in Ashway P&R, made up about half the total.  Thus current transit ridership from Lynnwood is probably less than 5000, a tiny fraction of projected Lynnwood Link ridership. 

That raises the question,  “Where are all the “new” Lynnwood Link riders coming from?’” All the P&R lots with access to Lynnwood Link are full and Sound Transit ST3 only adds 1500 new parking stalls at the stations.  They will likely use the link to replace all the current Everett-to-Seattle bus routes.   (Switching current commuters from buses to light rail does little to reduce HOV lane congestion and nothing to reduce GP congestion.)    The Traffic Lab abiding Rogoff’s ridership claim ignores the reality that even with the former bus commuters, it’s unlikely more than a fraction of the commuters needed to live within walking distance of stations will choose to do so. 

Of even more concern the article indicates the Traffic Lab doesn’t recognize any riders added by Lynnwood Link will reduce access for current riders.   Sound Transit’s decision to make it an extension of Central Link routed through the DSTT limits its ability to accommodate them.    A 2004 PSRC concluded station lengths limited trains to four cars, that safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains, and that 148 passengers could ride in their 74-seat cars.  Thus light rail capacity in Seattle is limited to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.

Some of that capacity is already in use.   Sound Transit’s 3^rd quarter 2018 ridership reported nearly 18,000 daily rode the University Link into and out of downtown Seattle.   Sound Transit could have used a T/C at the UW as an interface with 520 BRT that would’ve added thousand of riders from both sides of Lake Washington without spending a dime on light rail extensions.   Instead they’re spending over $2 billion on a Northgate extension they’ve anticipated will add 15,000 daily riders.   Thus, when Northgate Link begins operation in 2021 it will take more than 3½ hours for the DSTT capacity to accommodate riders into and out of downtown Seattle.   Whatever riders Lynnwood Link adds will, at least during peak commute, severely restrict if not end access at Northgate and University Link stations.

What should really be of concern is the Nov 20^th article heralding the Lynnwood Link grant implies the Traffic Lab is willing to abide Rogoff’s October 2019 proposed budget.    In it he describes 2019 as “a year of record ridership, heavy construction, and intense planning work as we continue building the most ambitious transit system expansion plan in the country”.   The reality is it’s another year of spending more billions expanding a transit system that will, not only do nothing to reduce congestion, it will reduce access for current riders.  That the operating costs of the expanded transportation system will be a perpetual drain on the area's transportation funds.  

When Sound Transit’s East Link begins operation commuters south of Seattle will loose half their current Central Link capacity.    Thus the Lynnwood Link is not the first of Sound Transit’s ST3 spine extensions that will reduce access for current riders.   The Traffic Lab article also abides their Long Range 2017 to 2041 Financial Plan that increased the cost of implementing ST3 from $54 billion in 2016 to $96 billion in 2018.   That most of the increase will come from estimated tax revenue that increased from $33 billion in 2016 to $64 billion in 2018.

Rogoff’s claim for Lynnwood Link ridership pales in comparison to his 2019 long-term budget claim light rail ridership will increase from 22 million in 2017 to 162 million in 2041: ~ 500,000 each week day.  It would take 28 hours each “day” for light rail limited by the DSTT to 8880 riders per hour in each direction to accommodate that number of riders.  Rogoff clearly has his own way of calculating capacity. 

Meanwhile his long-term budget extends a decade long failure to increase bus transit capacity for the next 23 years.  The Times Traffic Lab, apparently no longer believes an April 2016 Times editorial advocating more bus transit.

The bottom line is the Nov 20^th Traffic Lab article heralding the $1.2 billion Lynnwood Link grant indicates they abide not only Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s Lynnwood Link claims, but his plans for the next 23 years.  Both need to be “persuaded” the only way to reduce congestion is to add tens of thousands of parking spaces with access to express bus routes along restricted highway lanes to an elongated T/C on 4^th Ave.  That doing so could be done for a fraction of Rogoff's ST3 costs and time.

The irony is there would be no ST3 if not for the 70% approval from Seattle area voters.  Earlier posts have urged Seattle residents to oppose East Link because its operation will halve Central Link capacity south of International District.   Riders added by extensions beyond SeaTac will exacerbate the problem.  University Link riders will loose some access when Northgate begins operation.   Even a fraction of the 68,500 daily riders the FTA grant helps will end peak commute access for University link riders.  Rogoff's ST3 plan for extensions to Everett only exacerbate the problem. 

Seattle needs to protest. Urge the Seattle Times to recognize Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s incompetent (or mendacious) leadership and end the Traffic Lab’s willingness to abide that incompetence.  Urge your legislators to demand Sound Transit be audited.  Also contact Senators Murray and Cantwell urging they reject the FTA grant sending a signal to both Sound Transit and Times. 

Sooner or later "everyone" will recognize the debacle of Rogoff's ST3.  Obviously the sooner the better.  

Traffic Lab Abides Sound Transit Financial Plan

The previous post detailed how the Seattle Times Traffic Lab Nov 10^th “Shoulder Lane” article continued their decade long willingness to, if not actively support, abet Sound Transit’s failure to deal with the area’s congestion.   That Sound Transit not only ignored “conventional” methods for calculating transit capacity, they failed to add parking for access to light rail for commutes into the city and platform space in stations for their return.

This post opines the Traffic Lab also continues to abide Sound Transit's claims the extensions will now cost and how they will be funded. The initial estimates for funding were included in an April 4^th 2015 Seattle Times “Special to the Times” editorial by Sound Transit Board members, Strickland, Roberts, and Marchione,  “How to get Puget Sound Traffic moving:  Allow a vote on a package to fully fund light rail”. 

It included the following excerpts

The case for expanding our region’s mass-transit infrastructure cannot be overstated. 

The public vote can’t happen without action by the legislature.

We urge lawmakers grant full taxing authority of $15 billion so Sound Transit can put a measure before voters in November 2016.

The title “suggested” the board did not intend to include increased bus transit as part of “expanding our regions mass-transit infrastructure”. That’s consistent with their refusal to increase bus transit capacity since Prop 1 passed.

The Seattle Times urged legislators in 2015 to enact legislation enabling ST3 vote.  Their support and Sound Transit’s agreement to contribute $518 million to the state’s general fund undoubtedly played a major role in persuading legislatures to allow the vote  

However, the Sound Transit Board quickly concluded an additional $15 billion wasn’t sufficient.  They used the legislation to extend proposed taxes to where Sound Transit 3 evolved into plans to spend $54 billion and 25 years extending light rail 62 miles.  The Sound Transit 3 budget included estimates $36 billion would come from taxes. 

The Sound Transit ballot resolution left it to the discretion of future boards as to whether the ST3 taxes would be extended beyond the 25 years. This prompted a Times Oct 28 ^th, 2016 editorial urging voters reject ST3, forcing Sound Transit return with a measure specifying which taxes would be terminated and when.  Yet Sound Transit Board retained discretion to extend taxes. 

A Nov 4^th 2016 front-page Traffic Lab article concluded ST3 “would not reduce congestion”.  The best they could say was it “offers an escape from traffic misery for people who can reach the stations”.  (They neglected to mention any riders added by the extensions would reduce access for current riders.)   Despite these concerns the Times neglected to include auditing Sound Transit finances in their list of 10 priorities for the legislature. 

The Seattle Times apparent lack of concern about Sound Transit finances is exemplified by a lack of response to their October 2019 Proposed Budget.  What Sound Transit told voters in 2016 would cost $54 billion over 25 years will now cost $96 billion.  That most of the increase will come from estimated tax revenue that increased from $36 billion for ST3 in 2016 to $64 billion in 2018.  (Traffic Lab concern over extending taxes apparently doesn’t apply to increased taxes before 2041.)

An additional $6 billion will come from Sound Transit claim estimated 25-year fare revenue will increase from $1.5 billion in 2016 ST3 budget to $7.5 billion in 2019 budget.  Projected bus ridership and fare revenue didn’t increase, and light rail fares for the 2016 revenue were presumably similar to those in the 2019 budget.  The only rationale for the five-fold increase in revenue is a similar increase in projected ridership between 2016 and 2018.

The Seattle Times Traffic Lab, whose purported objective is to “dig into problems,” needs to query Sound Transit as to why the ST3 proposal voters approved in 2016 to fund the $54 billion, 25-year plan for “Prop 1 and beyond” light rail extensions, should cost $96 billion in 2018.  Why tax revenue needed has increased from $15 billion in 2015 to $36 billion in 2016 and $64 billion in 2018.  And why projected fare revenue increased so dramatically between the two years.

Instead they'll likely continue to abide Sound Transit fantasy.

Traffic Lab Continues to Enable Sound Transit Fantasy

The previous post opined the October, Sound Transit 2019 budget for 2017 to 2041 should have been a “wake-up” call for those concerned with the area’s congestion problem.  It also concluded the Seattle Times had played a major role in enabling Sound Transit since Prop 1 passed,  spending billions on light rail extensions that have done nothing to ease that congestion.  The Nov. 10^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab B1 page article, “Snohomish County bus drivers get I-5 shoulder lane access” exemplifies the Traffic Lab continuing to ignore that reality.   

The article describes the shoulder lanes as, “The first Sound Transit 3 project completed since voters approved the massive rail and bus expansion program in 2016”.  The Traffic Lab is apparently unaware Sound Transit’s 2019 budget shows they continue their decade long failure to increase bus revenue hours by refusing to increase bus ridership between 2017 and 2041.

They abet Sound Transit CEO Rogoff claim the shoulder lanes are “one way we’re able to reduce travel time for I-5 bus commuters”.   A 2015 PSRC report showed 2014 HOV travel times during morning commute averaged 75 minutes between Everett and Seattle.   Since travel times have presumably increased it’s unlikely any purported 4-5 minutes faster will make much difference.

The abide Rogoff's blatantly absurd claim the shoulder lane will “make a difference for people who travel our congested roads every day”. The Traffic Lab apparently doesn’t recognize reducing commute times only reduces congestion if they attract more transit riders.  All the P&R lots with access to I-5 have been full for years.  Yet Sound Transit has refused to add any parking, waiting until 2024 to begin adding a measly 8560 stalls over the next 17 years.   Again, they’ve also refused to increase the number of bus routes for ten years and their 2019 budget continues doing so until 2041.

The Traffic Lab article calls the shoulder lanes “an early deliverable that will ease commuting pain until rail expansion completion ends years and decades of congestion”.   Again it’s bad enough they concur with Rogoff claim shoulder lanes will “ease commuting pain”.  Their claim “rail expansion completion” will “end years and decades of congestion” is presumably based on Sound Transit’s 2019 budget.   It showed they intend to spend $96 billion implementing Rogoff’s new mission statement: “Connecting more people to more places".  That annual light rail ridership will increase from 20 million in 2017 to 162 million in 2041;  ~60,000 weekday average in 2017 to ~500,000 weekday average in 2041.

The previous post detailed how a 2004 PSRC study concluded Sound Transit decision to route Central Link through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limited its total capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction, or 17760 rph total capacity.  Whatever part of the $96 billion is spent extending light rail will do nothing to increase the DSTT capacity.  It will take 28 hours for light rail to accommodate the 500,000 “daily" riders through the DSTT with PSRC estimate.  

Clearly Sound Transit, apparently with Traffic Lab concurrence, has a “unique” way to calculate transit system capacity.  Sound Transit plans and Traffic Lab’s apparent concurrence with plans to limit additional parking also “suggests” they have their own way of providing access to this capacity.  That only a fraction of light rail riders will attempt to use the two limited-size stations in the DSTT for egress from, and access to, light rail. 

The bottom line is Sound Transit has been allowed to spend billions and years on light rail extensions that will do nothing to increase transit capacity.   Their budget summary for 2019 calls it “a year of record ridership, heavy construction, and intense planning work as we continue building the most ambitious transit system expansion plan in the nation”.  The reality is the $2.1 billion they intend to spend in 2019 reflects more billions and another year of failure to reduce the area’s congestion. Sound Transit’s plans to spend $96 billion may be the most “ambitious transit system expansion” in the country.   It’s way past time to recognize the "expansion" will do nothing to reduce congestion.

I's "possible" the Traffic Lab was not aware of Sound Transit's October 2019 budget plans for 2017 to 2041 when they wrote the Nov. 10th article.  That potential "delinquency" doesn't change the conclusion the article's support for shoulder lanes indicates they are going to continue enabling Sound Transit's ST3 funded fantasy.

 Unfortunately they’re not alone.  More on that later.

Sound Transit 2019 Budget “Fantasy”

The 2017-2041 plan in Sound Transit’s Proposed 2019 Budget should be a “wake-up” call for those who believe Sound Transit’s ST3 “Prop 1 and beyond” light rail extensions will reduce congestion on the area’s roadways.  It’s just the latest indication Sound Transit CEO Rogoff plans to spend $96 billion over the next 23 years continuing Dow Constantine’s Sound Transit Board decade of refusing to recognize the reality of effective public transit.  That what Rogoff calls their new mission statement,  “We are connecting more people to more places,” is instead sheer fantasy.

For example Sound Transit apparently has its own approach to calculating transit system capacity.  The “conventional” way is to multiply the number of vehicles per hour times the number of riders each vehicle can accommodate.  The previous post detailed how a bus-only lane or an HOT lane with fees set to limit number of vehicles to achieve 45 mph could accommodate a large number of buses. (e.g. 900 buses an hour use a single lane to Manhattan). 

A 70-ft articulated bus can accommodate 119 sitting and standing riders so additional bus service could easily provide capacity far beyond what’s needed to meet future transit demand.  Yet Sound Transit’s 2019 budget plans for 2017 to 2041, like those for the previous decade, ignore the potential capacity increase from buses.   

Instead their 2019 budget “connecting more people” does so claiming light rail average daily ridership will increase from 59,118 in 2017 to 500,000 in 2041.  A 2004 PSRC study concluded Sound Transit’s decision to route Central Link through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limited its capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction.  They presumably based that capacity on the more “conventional” approach where the number of vehicles per hour is based on the assumption DSTT station lengths limit light rail trains to 4 cars, that safe operation requires 4 minutes between trains, and that 148 riders can be accommodated in each 74-seat “vehicle”.

Again, Sound Transit apparently has its own way of calculating capacity since it would take 28 hours for the PSRC’s 17,760 total hourly capacity based on "conventional" methods to accommodate their 500,000 daily riders. The reality is Sound Transit light rail ridership will be a fraction of the 2019 budget projections and that any riders added by the extensions simply reduce capacity for current riders. 

Sound Transit also apparently has its own approach for providing access to whatever capacity light rail has.  Transit commuters need to either live within walking distance of light rail stations, be able to be dropped off, or drive to, or carpool with others to parking within walking distance.    

Since all the P&R's with access to transit have been full for years the previous post proposed local bus routes to provide access.  A local bus route connecting commuters from near where they live to a T/C was preferable to spending more than $50,000 for a space to park their cars. 

Sound Transit doesn't add any local bus routes and instead waits until 2024 to begin adding 8560 parking spots over the next 17 years; making their 2041 ridership projections even more absurd. 

Sound Transit follows its failure to provide access and capacity for commuting into Seattle with failure to provide access to light rail out of the city for return commutes.  The previous post detailed how 4^th Ave could be converted into an elongated T/C, each bus route having one or two dedicated drop off and pick up locations for commuter egress from and access to transit. 

Presumably the vast majority of light rail commuters will want to use the two stations in the DSTT.  It's "unlikely" stations that limit the length of light rail trains to 4 cars will ever have the platform space needed to accommodate more than a fraction of Sound Transit’s projected 500,000 daily ridership.

The bottom line is Sound Transit’s 2019 Budget 2017-2041 plans for light rail extensions show CEO Rogoff and the Sound Transit Board still don’t recognize the realities of effective public transit.  They've spent the last decade and billions on light rail rather than increasing transit capacity with more parking and bus routes.  Those billions and years wasted are only a precursor to their spending $96 billion over the next 23 years on a mission “to connect more people to more places” that is sheer fantasy. 

The choice is clear between Sound Transit's 2017-2041 plan and that in the previous post "A transit System That Works".  Unfortunately, the Seattle Times, which played a major role in passing ST3, and is presumably aware of the budget, hasn't raised any concerns.  Thus it's doubtful their Traffic Lab, which for years has, if not actively supported has abetted Sound Transit's light rail plans, will advocate for changes.  They need to be persuaded.