Federal Way Extension Blunder

The July 11th Seattle Times Traffic Lab front page article detailed Sound Transit CEO Dow Constantine's plan for “South End could get light rail before Eastside crossing”,  The 2 Line Eastside crossing debut previously scheduled for late 2025 had recently slid to a “January to April 2026 time frame.”

Federal Way extension “Trackways were completed months ago, leaving the impression of a corridor being empty for no obvious reason” ”. An estimated 18,000 to 23,000 riders are projected for the 8-mile extension. It will take 16 minutes with stops at Star Lake, Kent Des Moines, and Angel Lake to reach SeaTac and 50 minutes to the current 1 Line stop at International District station in Seattle.  

Presumably adding trains to maintain current 1 Line schedule, trips every 8 minutes for 8 hours,10 minutes for 8 hours, and 15 minutes for 4 hours. At $30-per-mile car operating cost, the resulting 4-car, 8-mile extension's 122 round trips will cost $234,240 daily

Sound Transit already funds Pierce County Transit (PCT) bus route 574 from Federal Way Downtown Station Bus Loop along I-5 to SeaTac. It's routed every 30 minutes from 2;42.am to 11:38 pm, has 10 stops for access and takes 40 minutes during peak commute..The June Ridership reported 2019 boardings, presumably 1009.5 average daily inbound and outbound riders. 

Service to SeaTac is also provided with RapidRide A’s 20 stops from Federal Way along Pacific Ave and International Blvd.  It's routed  every 10 minutes from 7:00 am. to 6:00 pm  and less frequent off peak.  Boardings were not available

Transit into Seattle is  available on KCM 577/578 with routes from bus loop every 10 t0 15 minutes to multiple stops in Seattle, with the 8:00 am. route taking 48 minutes to reach 4th Ave & University.  The June Ridership reported 2451 daily boardings for the two, again, presumably reflecting 1225.5 inbound and outbound riders.

Clearly commuters in the Federal Way area and along routes to SeaTac and Seattle already have access to transit to SeaTac with more convenient stops for egress and access in Seattle than the 1 Line DSTT stations.   The  Sound Transit prediction of 18,000 to 23,000 added 1 Line  riders is another example of their “Field of Dreams Approach” with the assumption “If we build light rail, riders will come”. 

Sound Transit has never acknowledged the Lynnwood extension’s ridership (8488 boardings in June) was a fraction of the 24,000 to 35,000 predicted despite having 80,000 residents with access. That most of the riders were forced to transfer from bus routes terminated at extension stations. Replacing bus routes reduces transit capacity into Seattle, nothing to reduce I-5 congestion, and limiting access for current 1 Line riders

The bottom line is Sound Transit’s assumption for 18,000 to 23,000 Federal Way extension riders goes beyond optimistic to delusional.  As with the Lynnwood extension, Sound Transit may choose to use the extension to replace far less expensive bus routes.  Increasing costs and reducing transit access into Seattle and convenient stops there for egress and return access.

Traffic Lab Ignores 2 Line Problems.

The July 7^th front page Traffic Lab column, “Why light rail from Seattle to Bellevue is years late” concludes “few will remember that it was late to be finished”. The losers are the 50,000 daily passengers who haven’t been able to use the full corridor. The “late problem” being the need to redo the track attachments and assigning responsibility.  Sound Transit will “double the typical number of practice trips, 20 days of running full time every eight minutes” to assure successful revenue service early next year.

The Traffic Lab apparently believes those currently riding buses into and out of Seattle will welcome the need to transfer to the 2 Line on Mercer Island for the commute.  That those using the ST550 route’s 10 stops for access to transit will welcome the need to walk to Bellevue T/C or East Main for access to 2 Line trains.

The Traffic Lab ignores Sound Transit’s light rail capacity problem with trains limited to 4 cars.  Each 74-seat car can accommodate up to 148 riders, 592 per train. With 8 minutes between trains, 2 Line capacity is limited to 4440 riders per hour (rph).  Accommodating 50,000 daily passengers with trains limited to 4440 rph will require very long days.

The Traffic Lab also ignores the cost of providing that service.  Routing 2 Line trains from Downtown Redmondd Station (DRS) to and from the International District Station(IDS) will add 36 miles of revenue service.  At `$30 per mile  a 4-car train will cost $4320 per trip.  Trips every 8 minutes for 8 hours,10 minutes for 8 hours, and 15 minutes for 4 hours will require 122 trips, costing $527,040 daily.  If the “50,000” passengers paid the $3.00 fare, Sound Transit would still have to fund the remaining ~$350,000 daily.

The Traffic Lab also ignores problems with merging 2 Line trains with returning 1 Line trains. A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded safe operation required 4 minutes between trains. How does Sound Transit assure a minimum of 4 minutes between Line 2 trains from Redmond and Line 1 trains initially returning from Angel Lake, later from Federal Way, and eventually from Tacoma.

Other concerns are the 4-car trains will double the noise of Starter Line’s 2-car trains.  Sound Transit will have to reduce the 4-car train velocity to avoid violating Bellevue noise limits.  The Washington State Department of Ecology has determined all light rail lines generate toxic pollution in stormwater runoff.  How does Sound Transit keep the runoff from polluting Lake Washington?

The bottom line is being late isn’t the 2 Line’s only problem

Sound Transit “Due to mechanical Issues” Delays

 The Sound Transit 1 Line Link schedule consists of light rail trains from Lynnwood  every 8 to 10 minutes from 4:59 am. untill 9:13 pm., 12 min to 11:01 and 15 min to 1:31 pm.  Yet, most days my Yahoo mail box contains at least one of the following:

 

Due to a mechanical issue, the 1 Line trains will arrive about 20 minutes later today

 

Or

 

Due to mechanical issues, 1 Line trains are sharing one track and you are advised to board all trains on the platform to Lynnwood.

 

The March 7^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “Report: Light rail too complex for its own good” detailed the problem: the sensitivity of Sound Transit’s “Rail-to-Ground” selection for power system . The result’s been problems associated with power problems, weak governance, inefficient use of maintenance crews, and a lack of crossover rail switches to avoid blockage”. Proposed recommendations would allow trains to bypass problems and maintain Sound Transit’s promised four-minute-intervals in 2026.

 

It's been nearly 4 months and the problems apparently continue. Sound Transit used to provide quarterly Service Delivery Performance Reports with Percentage of Scheduled Trips Operated and Headway Performance (compared to schedule)  However the last report they released was for Q1 2021.  Thus, it's not clear if there’s been any improvement. 

 

The 1 Line track extensions to Lynnwood and next year to Federal Way, and routing 2 Line from Redmond across I-90 Bridge and north to Lynnwood would seem to add potential sources and problems with maintenance crew access,  

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit Link riders deserve better.

Real Sound Transit Savings

The previous post concluded the Seattle Times Traffic Lab was abiding Sound Transit spending millions extending 1-Line to Tacoma Dome for boardings that will end peak hour access for current riders.  This post details Sound Transit is spending up to $500 million over 7 years for “environmental services” on Sound Transit Projects that won’t reduce congestion.

The video of the June 26^th Sound Transit Board Meeting showed them unanimously approving the following agenda Business Item:

 

E. Motion No. M2025-32: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute 15 individual Multiple Award Task Order Contract (MOTAC)  for five years, each with two one-year options to extend, with Akana, Atlas, CDM Smith, Confluence Environmental Company, Cordoba Corporation, ESA,Haley & Aldrich, HNTB Corporation, Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc, Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc., Parametrix, RSI Remediation, LLC, Stell Environmental Enterprises, Inc., TRC Environmental Corporation, and WSP USA Inc. to provide Sound Transit with environmental services such that the aggregate total amount of the 15 contracts does not exceed $500,000,000 over the potential seven-year period, 

 

This for a Sound Transit Board who in March approved a 2025 Adopted Budget and Financial Plan spending $957,5 million funding a 1572-position staff.  It continued the years of staff funding and the years and millions spent on transit advisory groups (TAG) and other outside consultants. The 256-page 2025 budget includes Appendix K, Project Detail Pages120-240 of System Expansion Funding details. Scope, Authorized Allocation, and Budget, for 13 Sounder and 20 Link Light Rail Projects were included, presumably reflecting the years of TAG and outside consultant advice.  

Yet Megaproject Manager, Terri Mestas, clearly believes Sound Transit needs to pay some 15 outside companies up to $500 million for advice on how to better implement the Appendix K projects.  It’s not clear who decides which outside company gets which project and why. Also, who monitors the outside company’s performance?  

Mestas apparently doesn’t recognize that saving money and time implementing many of the remaining projects doesn’t change their efficacy.  For example, saving money and time doesn’t change the Lynnwood Link ridership that indicated the Everett and Tacoma light rail spine extensions won’t attract the riders needed to justify the costs of extending light rail tracks and light rail train operating costs.  

That the Starter Line failure to attract projected riders should raise concerns with potential Ballard and West Seattle extensions. Both service areas already have KCM coverage with far better access for commutes into Seattle and more convenient stops there. 

The bottom line is Mestas spending the MATOC money to reduce the cost of I-Line extensions to Everett and Tacoma, and light rail service from Ballard and West Seattle doesn’t change the fact that not doing the extensions or implementing light rail service could save billions.

 

 

Traffic Lab Ignores Sound Transit’s Tacoma Extension Problem

The Seattle Times’s Traffic Lab is the paper’s “ project that explores the region's policies that determine how we get around and how billions of dollars in public money are spent”.  A previous post detailed how, prior to the 2016 Prop 1 vote, the paper had recommended voters say “No to Sound Transit 3”.  Yet, their Traffic Lab  project continues to abide if not abbet Sound Transit spending billions on projects that will do nothing to reduce the area’s congestion and leave a huge debt. 

The latest example being the Traffic Lab abiding a June 12^th System Expansion Committee meeting detailing the Sound Transit approach to spending.  The meeting agenda “For recommendation to the Board”, included Motion No. M2025-31, adding up to $87,902,394 for a total not to exceed $181.555,740 for “Phase 3 project development services for the Tacoma Dome Link Extension" project.  

 

That funding was quoted as “Contingent on approval of  Resolution No. R2025-14 amending the Adopted 2025 Budget“ for the extension. (A budget they’d just approved in March) It authorized a $144,950,939 increase in 2025 budget from $112,388,021 to $257,388,960. (Sound Transit apparently doesn’t like reporting their spending in “millions”. ) 

 

It wasn’t clear with M2025-31 taking the additional ~$88 million, where the rest of the R2025-14’s additional $145 million in 2025 budget will be spent.  What is clear is that the Traffic Lab is abiding Sound Transit’s System Expansion Committee’s failure to recognize that the ST3 extension to Tacoma won’t reduce the area’s congestion. 

 

They don’t recognize Sound Transit’s problem with light rail trains limited to 4 cars.  Each 74-seat car can accommodate up to 148 riders, 592 per train. A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded safe operation requires 4 minutes between trains, limiting capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph). 

 

The Traffic Lab should “explore” how that limit affects benefits from theTacoma Link extension. Sound Transit’s latest ridership report for the 1 Line stations from Stadium to Angle Lake was 37,265 boardings, with 11,183 boardings at SeaTac. 

 

If 80% of the 26,082 boardings from the other nine stations were for routes into Seattle during the 3-hour peak commute, 1-Line boardings from Angle Lake to Stadium would average 6955 rph,  When 2 Line trains begin service early next year, Line I capacity will be limited to 4440 rph,  Thus, current Line 1 commuters nearer downtown will lose peak hour access to transit. 

‘

The extension to Federal Way later adds to the 1-Line boarders’ loss. A June 2024 Traffic Lab article claimed it would add, ”18,000 to 23,000 passengers.“  A similar analysis adds between 4800 and 6122 rph peak hour boardings on the route into Seattle, displacing even more current 1-Line boarders.

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit plans to spend millions on the Tacoma extension will further reduce current boarder access.  The Traffic Lab should recommend the Sound Transit Board delay funding the extension until next year when both Line 2 and Federal Way ridership effects on access for current  1-Line peak commute boardings are known.

 

Sound Transit Ignores Line 2 Problems

The previous post detailed why additional testing wouldn’t “fix” Line 2 problems.  How does Sound Transit assure a minimum of 4 minutes between Line 2 trains from Redmond and Line 1 trains initially returning from Angel Lake, later from Federal Way, and eventually from Tacoma? That maintaining the current schedule;  4-car trains every 10 minute for 16 hours requires 96 round trips for a $414,720 weekday cost..

That the Downtown Redmond Extension ridership was "likely" a tiny fraction of the 5700 expected when they are able to go into Seattle.  Again demonstrating that providing access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership. That Sound Transit should terminate Line 2 at the existing ID/C, allow its operation to be set by Eastside transit demands and for Line 1 to meet transit needs to both Lynnwood and Federal Way.  

This post details the video of Sound Transit’s Rider Experience and Operations Committee Meeting 06/05/2025 shows a lack of concern over the issues with their 2 Line Service Plan for Cross Lake Connection:

Trains arrive every 8 mins peak, and 10-15 minutes off-peak, Saturdays, and Sundays

Combined headways between ID/C and Lynnwood City Center  on the 1 and 2 Lines of 4-8 minutes

Service operates approximately 5:00 a.m. – midnight

The June 6 Seattle Times Traffic Lab article result, “Downtown Seattle light rail stations will be closed Sunday detailed the resulting “light rail disruption this weekend”.  Making connections between Eastside 2 Line and the growing 1 Line in Seattle.  "When the connection is completed the 2 Line trains will continue north to Lynnwood, doubling  the capacity between downtown and Lynnwood with trains every five minutes." 

The  article concludes, “That ought to build more train ridership which as of April averaged 101,000 daily passengers”.  Yet the 1 Line April average for the four Lynnwood stations totaled 7688 riders, a fraction of the 24,400 to 35,000 Sound Transit had  projected prior to the debut.  

Many is not most were former Snohomish Community Transit 400  bus riders whose routes were terminated at one of the four Lynnwood Link stations.  Also, RapidRide E Line continued providing far more access from Aurora Village along Aurora Ave to more stops in Seattle. Thus, doubling the capacity will double the operating cost but not the ridership

The bottom line is neither Sound Transit nor Seattle Times apparently recognize the problem of safely merging 1 Line routes from Angel Lake and and cross-lake 2 Line at ID/C prior to DSTT.  (again, later from Federal Way and Tacoma).  That terminating the  2 Line at ID/C will end the merging problem and allow more Line 1 trains through DSTT to meet any need for future growth. 

 

 

 

Testing Won’t Fix Line 2 Link Problems

Sound Transit has once again decided to delay the East Link extension across the I-90 Bridge.  Revenue service which had been previously scheduled for June 2021, delayed until late 2025, has now been scheduled for January 16, 2026.  Again, with the following proviso:

Achieving that date is heavily dependent on how the next few months go, as the agency conducts robust testing on the first light rail line to cross a floating bridge anywhere in the world.

 

The light rail line/floating bridge issue had resulted in the Legislature Joint Transportation Committee (JTC) commissioning an Independent Review Team.  In 2012, four years after the 2008 IRT had recommended “careful study and testing in the early stages of the project”, Sound Transit signed a $28M (later $36M) contract with Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) to finish the design.  

 

They demonstrated the design at the Transportation Technology Center in Pueblo, Colo.  The tests, conducted during the summer and fall of 2013, were reported to be a success with claims their design passed with “flying colors”.

 

The delay from the June 2021 revenue service date to late 2025 was due to the need to redo the attachments between light rail tracks and bridge structure.   Some of the attachments apparently need additional work.  A  March 7^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article also raised concerns due to the sensitivity of Sound Transit’s “Rail-to-Ground” selection for power system

 

While faulty rail attachments can presumably be repaired, it's unclear how an additional month of testing could resolve the “sensitivity-of-the-power-system” problem. The Starter Line pre-debut testing resulted in limiting train speeds to avoid violating Bellevue Noise Codes.  The additional time and testing may result in lower Line 2 speeds between South Bellevue and International District that could alleviate attachment concerns and power system sensitivity. 

 

One of the reasons “the date is dependent on how the next months go” is presumably due to the need to ensure that Line 2 trains can safely merge with the Line 1 trains prior to going through DSTT.  Sound Transit funded a PSRC study in 2004 that concluded safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains.  How does Sound Transit assure a minimum of 4 minutes between Line 2 trains from Redmond and Line 1 trains initially returning from Angel Lake, later from Federal Way, and eventually from Tacoma.

 

One of the things, “how the next few months go”,  can’t change is the cost of routing Line 2 the 18-mile route from Downtown Redmond Station (DRS) to the International District Station (IDS).  At $30 per vehicle revenue mile, the 18-mile link costs $1080 per vehicle for a DRS to-and-from IDS route.  

 

Providing half the capacity to and from Lynnwood would presumably require 4-car Line 2 trains. Thus, each DRS-to-IDS round trip would add $4,320 to daily operating cost.  Maintaining the current schedule,  trains every 10 minute for 16 hours, requires 96 round trips for a $414,720 weekday cost..

 

The  question being how many boardings will the DRS-to-IDS route attract.  A  May 10^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab column had touted, “What you’ll find at Redmond’s new light rail stations, connecting parks, restaurants, and more, should make the Eastside 2 Lanes now-empty trains more versatile”. Sound Transit had estimated that next winter, when people can ride light rail into Seattle, 5700 riders will use the two stations daily. 

 

The May 22 Sound Transit Board meeting heralded the DRS-to-South Bellevue route's success but nothing about actual boardings. Those won’t be available until Sound Transit releases their monthly Ridership—Ridership report for May and June. 

 

However, a  May 20th visit to  the Marymore Village Garage,(after breakfast at Redmond Pancake HouseI)  found fewer than 50 vehicles in the 1400-stall facility. Thus whatever riders were added at the DRS that day, the Downtown Redmond Extension ridership was a tiny fraction of the 5700 expected when they are able to go into Seattle.  Another demonstration that providing access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership. 

 

It's not clear how many additional commuters will be attracted to Line 2 when it traverses I-90 bridge. Sound Transit plans to require current bus riders transfer to Line 2 for the commute into and out of Seattle.

 

The bottom line is the “next few months of testing” won’t change the fact that Sound Transit should have never been allowed to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail trains. That doing so precluded two-way BRT routes with 10 times the capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10th the cost. 

At this point, the only way to mitigate the damage is to terminate Line 2 at the existing IDS.  Allow its operation to be set by eastside transit demands and for Line 1 to meet transit needs to Federal Way.

 

Again, no amount of testing will “fix” that need.