Federal Way Extension Blunder

The July 11th Seattle Times Traffic Lab front page article detailed Sound Transit CEO Dow Constantine's plan for “South End could get light rail before Eastside crossing”,  The 2 Line Eastside crossing debut previously scheduled for late 2025 had recently slid to a “January to April 2026 time frame.”

Federal Way extension “Trackways were completed months ago, leaving the impression of a corridor being empty for no obvious reason” ”. An estimated 18,000 to 23,000 riders are projected for the 8-mile extension. It will take 16 minutes with stops at Star Lake, Kent Des Moines, and Angel Lake to reach SeaTac and 50 minutes to the current 1 Line stop at International District station in Seattle.  

Presumably adding trains to maintain current 1 Line schedule, trips every 8 minutes for 8 hours,10 minutes for 8 hours, and 15 minutes for 4 hours. At $30-per-mile car operating cost, the resulting 4-car, 8-mile extension's 122 round trips will cost $234,240 daily

Sound Transit already funds Pierce County Transit (PCT) bus route 574 from Federal Way Downtown Station Bus Loop along I-5 to SeaTac. It's routed every 30 minutes from 2;42.am to 11:38 pm, has 10 stops for access and takes 40 minutes during peak commute..The June Ridership reported 2019 boardings, presumably 1009.5 average daily inbound and outbound riders. 

Service to SeaTac is also provided with RapidRide A’s 20 stops from Federal Way along Pacific Ave and International Blvd.  It's routed  every 10 minutes from 7:00 am. to 6:00 pm  and less frequent off peak.  Boardings were not available

Transit into Seattle is  available on KCM 577/578 with routes from bus loop every 10 t0 15 minutes to multiple stops in Seattle, with the 8:00 am. route taking 48 minutes to reach 4th Ave & University.  The June Ridership reported 2451 daily boardings for the two, again, presumably reflecting 1225.5 inbound and outbound riders.

Clearly commuters in the Federal Way area and along routes to SeaTac and Seattle already have access to transit to SeaTac with more convenient stops for egress and access in Seattle than the 1 Line DSTT stations.   The  Sound Transit prediction of 18,000 to 23,000 added 1 Line  riders is another example of their “Field of Dreams Approach” with the assumption “If we build light rail, riders will come”. 

Sound Transit has never acknowledged the Lynnwood extension’s ridership (8488 boardings in June) was a fraction of the 24,000 to 35,000 predicted despite having 80,000 residents with access. That most of the riders were forced to transfer from bus routes terminated at extension stations. Replacing bus routes reduces transit capacity into Seattle, nothing to reduce I-5 congestion, and limiting access for current 1 Line riders

The bottom line is Sound Transit’s assumption for 18,000 to 23,000 Federal Way extension riders goes beyond optimistic to delusional.  As with the Lynnwood extension, Sound Transit may choose to use the extension to replace far less expensive bus routes.  Increasing costs and reducing transit access into Seattle and convenient stops there for egress and return access.