Mitigating I-5 Bridge Resurfacing "Years of Pain".

 The July 16th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article detailed “Years of Pain” resulting from WSDOT plans for resurfacing I-5.  It followed an April 3^rd Traffic Lab article “State shifts plan on Ship Canal Bridge project” detailing plans to use the results for 20% of the bridge to make a more accurate estimate for repairing the rest.  That, “in the end we will have a safe, reliable bridge for years to come”.  

The WSDOT estimated closure would result in diverting 84,000 vehicles of the roadways 240,000 daily vehicles, trips prevented and thousands more delayed by cascading congestion”.  Sound Transit plans to run 1 Line trains every 10 minutes will do little to help as much of that capacity is already used by current riders. Any additional riders from stations along I-5 will simply reduce access for 1 Line boarders at stops at UW and Capital Hill.

Sound Transit could alleviate the problem by running the 1 Line trains every 4 minutes rather than 10 during peak commute.   However, the only way to mitigate the problem is to increase the number of riders using bus routes for the commute into and out of Seattle. 

Sound Transit blundered when it chose to spend hundreds of millions extending light rail rather than add parking near stations for access to bus routes or for local routes from where people live to the stations. The money spent extending light rail did nothing to increase its transit capacity, it only increased the operating costs.  4-car trains lack the capacity to attract riders needed to reduce peak hour multi-lane roadway congestion and cost too much to operate off peak.

Sound Transit exacerbated the capacity problem by choosing to use light rail trains to replace Community Transit (CT) and King County Metro (KCM) routes into the city. The “Years of Pain” could be mitigated if CT and KCM re-implemented those previous routes with increased frequency if needed during time spent resurfacing the entire I-5 route.

Bus riders on both services would welcome no longer needing to shift to and from trains for the commute into and out of Seattle and the more convenient stops for egress and return access there than stations in DSTT.  A better permanent solution for everyone after the 'Years of Pain."

 

Federal Way Extension Blunder

The July 11th Seattle Times Traffic Lab front page article detailed Sound Transit CEO Dow Constantine's plan for “South End could get light rail before Eastside crossing”,  The 2 Line Eastside crossing debut previously scheduled for late 2025 had recently slid to a “January to April 2026 time frame.”

Federal Way extension “Trackways were completed months ago, leaving the impression of a corridor being empty for no obvious reason” ”. An estimated 18,000 to 23,000 riders are projected for the 8-mile extension. It will take 16 minutes with stops at Star Lake, Kent Des Moines, and Angel Lake to reach SeaTac and 50 minutes to the current 1 Line stop at International District station in Seattle.  

Presumably adding trains to maintain current 1 Line schedule, trips every 8 minutes for 8 hours,10 minutes for 8 hours, and 15 minutes for 4 hours. At $30-per-mile car operating cost, the resulting 4-car, 8-mile extension's 122 round trips will cost $234,240 daily

Sound Transit already funds Pierce County Transit (PCT) bus route 574 from Federal Way Downtown Station Bus Loop along I-5 to SeaTac. It's routed every 30 minutes from 2;42.am to 11:38 pm, has 10 stops for access and takes 40 minutes during peak commute..The June Ridership reported 2019 boardings, presumably 1009.5 average daily inbound and outbound riders. 

Service to SeaTac is also provided with RapidRide A’s 20 stops from Federal Way along Pacific Ave and International Blvd.  It's routed  every 10 minutes from 7:00 am. to 6:00 pm  and less frequent off peak.  Boardings were not available

Transit into Seattle is  available on KCM 577/578 with routes from bus loop every 10 t0 15 minutes to multiple stops in Seattle, with the 8:00 am. route taking 48 minutes to reach 4th Ave & University.  The June Ridership reported 2451 daily boardings for the two, again, presumably reflecting 1225.5 inbound and outbound riders.

Clearly commuters in the Federal Way area and along routes to SeaTac and Seattle already have access to transit to SeaTac with more convenient stops for egress and access in Seattle than the 1 Line DSTT stations.   The  Sound Transit prediction of 18,000 to 23,000 added 1 Line  riders is another example of their “Field of Dreams Approach” with the assumption “If we build light rail, riders will come”. 

Sound Transit has never acknowledged the Lynnwood extension’s ridership (8488 boardings in June) was a fraction of the 24,000 to 35,000 predicted despite having 80,000 residents with access. That most of the riders were forced to transfer from bus routes terminated at extension stations. Replacing bus routes reduces transit capacity into Seattle, nothing to reduce I-5 congestion, and limiting access for current 1 Line riders

The bottom line is Sound Transit’s assumption for 18,000 to 23,000 Federal Way extension riders goes beyond optimistic to delusional.  As with the Lynnwood extension, Sound Transit may choose to use the extension to replace far less expensive bus routes.  Increasing costs and reducing transit access into Seattle and convenient stops there for egress and return access.

Traffic Lab Ignores 2 Line Problems.

The July 7^th front page Traffic Lab column, “Why light rail from Seattle to Bellevue is years late” concludes “few will remember that it was late to be finished”. The losers are the 50,000 daily passengers who haven’t been able to use the full corridor. The “late problem” being the need to redo the track attachments and assigning responsibility.  Sound Transit will “double the typical number of practice trips, 20 days of running full time every eight minutes” to assure successful revenue service early next year.

The Traffic Lab apparently believes those currently riding buses into and out of Seattle will welcome the need to transfer to the 2 Line on Mercer Island for the commute.  That those using the ST550 route’s 10 stops for access to transit will welcome the need to walk to Bellevue T/C or East Main for access to 2 Line trains.

The Traffic Lab ignores Sound Transit’s light rail capacity problem with trains limited to 4 cars.  Each 74-seat car can accommodate up to 148 riders, 592 per train. With 8 minutes between trains, 2 Line capacity is limited to 4440 riders per hour (rph).  Accommodating 50,000 daily passengers with trains limited to 4440 rph will require very long days.

The Traffic Lab also ignores the cost of providing that service.  Routing 2 Line trains from Downtown Redmondd Station (DRS) to and from the International District Station(IDS) will add 36 miles of revenue service.  At `$30 per mile  a 4-car train will cost $4320 per trip.  Trips every 8 minutes for 8 hours,10 minutes for 8 hours, and 15 minutes for 4 hours will require 122 trips, costing $527,040 daily.  If the “50,000” passengers paid the $3.00 fare, Sound Transit would still have to fund the remaining ~$350,000 daily.

The Traffic Lab also ignores problems with merging 2 Line trains with returning 1 Line trains. A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded safe operation required 4 minutes between trains. How does Sound Transit assure a minimum of 4 minutes between Line 2 trains from Redmond and Line 1 trains initially returning from Angel Lake, later from Federal Way, and eventually from Tacoma.

Other concerns are the 4-car trains will double the noise of Starter Line’s 2-car trains.  Sound Transit will have to reduce the 4-car train velocity to avoid violating Bellevue noise limits.  The Washington State Department of Ecology has determined all light rail lines generate toxic pollution in stormwater runoff.  How does Sound Transit keep the runoff from polluting Lake Washington?

The bottom line is being late isn’t the 2 Line’s only problem

Sound Transit “Due to mechanical Issues” Delays

 The Sound Transit 1 Line Link schedule consists of light rail trains from Lynnwood  every 8 to 10 minutes from 4:59 am. untill 9:13 pm., 12 min to 11:01 and 15 min to 1:31 pm.  Yet, most days my Yahoo mail box contains at least one of the following:

 

Due to a mechanical issue, the 1 Line trains will arrive about 20 minutes later today

 

Or

 

Due to mechanical issues, 1 Line trains are sharing one track and you are advised to board all trains on the platform to Lynnwood.

 

The March 7^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “Report: Light rail too complex for its own good” detailed the problem: the sensitivity of Sound Transit’s “Rail-to-Ground” selection for power system . The result’s been problems associated with power problems, weak governance, inefficient use of maintenance crews, and a lack of crossover rail switches to avoid blockage”. Proposed recommendations would allow trains to bypass problems and maintain Sound Transit’s promised four-minute-intervals in 2026.

 

It's been nearly 4 months and the problems apparently continue. Sound Transit used to provide quarterly Service Delivery Performance Reports with Percentage of Scheduled Trips Operated and Headway Performance (compared to schedule)  However the last report they released was for Q1 2021.  Thus, it's not clear if there’s been any improvement. 

 

The 1 Line track extensions to Lynnwood and next year to Federal Way, and routing 2 Line from Redmond across I-90 Bridge and north to Lynnwood would seem to add potential sources and problems with maintenance crew access,  

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit Link riders deserve better.