The November 6th Seattle Times article “Voters support state’s carbon market” exemplifies what happens when those opposing I-2117 were able to fund advertisements that dwarfed any attempts to support it. That rather than inform readers about the mendacity of those efforts the Times abetted it with an October 18th article concerns about what happens if the tax goes away.
This post details what will happen because the tax didn’t go away. A 2022 Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported Washington emitted 74.4 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2. The emissions included 42.5 MMT from transportation, 11.5 MMT from industrial use, 9.5 MMT for electric power, 6.2 MMT residential, and 5.0 MMT commercial.
The transportation emissions were from refiners refining crude oil into fuel and from vehicles burning that fuel. The five Washington fineries emitted 6 MMT of CO2. Thus, the remaining 36 MMT were presumably emitted from burning the fuel. The result of ~20 lbs. of CO2 emission from burning a gallon of gasoline and ~22 lbs. from diesel. Somewhat less than a pound of per mile for cars but more for heavier vehicles. Charging refiners based on the CO2 they emit rather than the gallons they sell limits the effect of taxes on emissions.
A large part of the industrial 11.5 MMT CO2 emissions results from making cement. The energy needed to bake the limestone, and the CO2 released from the chemical reactions of making the cement result in one pound of CO2 emitted for every pound of cement. Thus, the cost for a ton of cement will increase by whatever the taxes are on a ton of CO2. Costs that will undoubtedly be passed on to those using the cement for concrete in construction.
The taxes can be applied for the CO2 emissions resulting from those burning natural gas to generate electric power. However, like the taxes for refiners, the taxes won’t add to what residential and commercial users pay to burn the natural gas.
The bottom line is rejecting I-2117 will result in refineries, those making cement or burning natural gas to create electricity, paying taxes for the CO2 they emit. Costs that will inevitably be passed on to those buying the gas and those heating their homes with heat pumps and charging the batteries in their cars.
However, the taxes won't apply to the emissions resulting from those using the fuel to power their vehicles or natural gas to heat their homes, where they work, or cook their food. Thus, rejecting I-2117 is a very small step towards a CO2 free state
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