Sound Transit Ignores Implications of Lynnwood Link Debacle

The video of the 11/14/2024 System Expansion Committee Meeting demonstrates the Sound Transit Boards continuing its failure to effectively deal with the areas transportation problems. It began with “interim” CEO Goran Sparrrman announcing Sound Transit had received awards for its construction of the Lynnwood extension. He neglected to mention the number of boardings the extension had attracted. 

The Sound Transit Ridership-Ridership website reported the four Lynnwood Link stations totaled 8400 boardings in September.  A fraction of the 24,400 to 35,000 they had projected prior to the debut, presumably based on their assessment of the link's four stations being within a mile of 80,000 residents.

The  Northgate Link boardings were also far less than expected.  The September result for the four link stations totaled 8401 boardings, again a fraction of the 41,000 to 49,000  they’d earlier predicted.  Thus, the total boardings added by extending light rail beyond the UW Stadium station was 16,001, belying Sound Transit “Field of Dreams” approach, “if we build light rail extensions riders will come".

Sparrman also neglected to mention what it cost Sound Transit to accommodate those riders. The 4.2-mile extension from UW Stadium to Northgate extension and 8.5-miles from Northgate to Lynnwood add ~25 miles to the round trip from the  Westlake Station.  Sound Transit budgets light rail cars at ~$30 per revenue mile.  Thus, the extensions add  ~$3,000.00 per 4-car round trip.  Sound Transit’s current Line 1 schedule shows trains every 10 minutes from 5:07 am to 8:47 pm, 12-minute intervals to 10:23, 15 until12:08 and a final train at 12:50 am. The resulting 107 4-car  trips add ~$320,000 to daily operating costs.  

The combination of limited ridership and high operating costs results in a  $~20.00 per boarder cost.  Yet  Sound Transit CEO Sparrman neglected  to include either  “detail” in his presentation and typical of the Board’s System Expansion Committee, they didn’t ask.  Neither acknowleged  the significance of the Lynnwood results.  

The most obvious is the result of extending light rail to Lynnwood should end any plan to extend light rail to  Everett Station.  The cost of implementing the 16-mile extension and six new stations, routing trains to either Mariner P&R or Everett Station  will dwarf any potential benefit.  The Lynnwood Link failure to attract riders should also raise doubts about Sound Transit plans to spend $6 billion on a second bridge over Duwamish Waterway for a light rail extension from Alaska Junction in West Seattle to SODO.

Even more relevant is the “limited” ridership clearly indicates there’s no need to route Line 2 trains next year from Bellevue through DSTT to Lynnwood.   Thus, Sound Transit should terminate the East Link at existing CID Station.  Schedule its operation to meet I-90 corridor demands rather than provide half the trains to Lynnwood.   Avoid the need to limit Line 2 trains to avoid excessive costs for Lynnwood-to-UW stadium operation. Terminating Line 2 at the CID Station also allows the existing DSTT to accommodate all the current Line 1 trains from SeaTac to Lynnwood, mitigating  the need for a second tunnel

That result was especially timely since the 11/14/24 System Expansion Committee meeting also included a presentation concerning  the results of outside consultants evaluating three second tunnel alternatives: Dearborn Street, 4th Ave Shallow, and 5th Ave Shallow Diagonal.  All three alternatives would require disrupting  traffic and demolition of existing buildsings. They concluded that  “Construction Duration Drivers”  favored  the Dearborn Street Alternative, taking 7 years to complete.  

For comparison the 4th Ave Shallow Alternative, the favorite of the vast majority of those commenting at meetings,  would  take 12 year to complete.  Other details such as boardings or travel times weren’t significantly different.  Thus, the decision was made to proceed with implementing the Dearborn Street Alternative.

The bottom line is routing Line 2 through DSTT to Lynnwood will either double the cost of the Lynnwood extension or severely restrict Line 2 schedules.  Terminating it at the existing CID station will eliminate that problem and mitigate the need for a second tunnel. (Also appease those who supported the 4th Ave Shallow CID location) The potential for saving  $13 billion and a minimum of 7 years disrupting  downtown Seattle should not be ignored.