The August 15th Seattle Time Traffic Lab B1 page article "Sound Transit 'realignment' takes on $6.5 billion shortfall" exemplifies a decade of the Times abetting Sound Transit incompetence. First there's the extended revenue they and Sound Transit expect from ST3 taxes.
Sound Transit's need for the taxes began with the following April 23, 2015 announcement:
Board advances planning for Sound Transit 3 ballot measure:
Currently, the Sound Transit Board is seeking authority from the Washington State Legislature for regional voters to consider $15 billion in new revenue for the regional mass transit extensions. The full authority is essential for the Board to consider advancing a measure that responds to the strong public interest registered so far in extending light rail to Everett, Tacoma, downtown Redmond, Ballard and West Seattle while building bus rapid transit on I-405 and expanding express bus services.
The Traffic Lab and Sound Transit refuse to recognize residents were told, prior to the November 2016 vote, that the resulting legislation only enabled ST3 taxes from 2017-2041. That the ST3's additional 0.5 percent sales and use tax, additional 0.8 percent motor vehicle excise tax, and property tax of up to twenty-five cents per $1000 of assessed valuation, would end in 2042.
That in 2042 Sound Transit will be left with the November 2008 ST2 approved 0.9 percent in sales tax, 0.8 percent in rental car tax, and 0.3 percent in motor vehicle excise tax to fund whatever construction is needed, operation, and any bond payment. The revenue from the three taxes in the 2016 budget totaled $792 million. Assuming a 3.5 percent annual inflation rate to 2041 the tax income will increase to ~$1.8 billion annually.
Yet the Long Range Plan in Sound Transit's 2021 Financial Plan and Adopted Budget projects $3 billion in "Expenditures" and $1 billion in "Debt Service Payments" in 2041. The article claims "the agency must repay the bonds after projects are built". Doing so with the $1.8 billion in taxes will leave very little for funding construction and operation. Diverting baseline funding to expediting the far less expensive West Seattle to Ballard link would minimize the need for both.
Second, there is the issue of the capacity of "baseline" light rail extensions routed through Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT). A 2004 PSRC Technical Workbook, "High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment", funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT stations limited trains to 4 cars. That safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains. They assumed each car could accommodate 148 riders, limiting capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.
While Sound Transit ridership projections are more "optimistic" (delusional), none of the "baseline" extensions will increase DSTT capacity. Thus, the paper's assurance "light rail lines to Lynnwood and Federal Way will still be finished" will result in reduced access for current Central Link riders.
The loss to Central Link riders from Federal Way commuters will be especially onerous since they'll have previous lost half the DSTT capacity when East Link begins operation. Clearly extensions beyond Lynnwood and Federal Way add to Central Link rider loss.
The third concern is the lack of access to light rail spine extensions. 70 to 80% of "baseline" extension riders will need "motorized access" to station, either with parking or being dropped off. Yet Sound Transit has spent a decade neglecting to add significant parking near transit stations. ( Instead planning to provide "access" by forcing existing bus riders to transfer to light rail for the commute, reducing total transit capacity into Seattle.)
The latest data available, an Oct-Dec 2016, WSDOT "Park and Ride Inventory" showed nearly all of the parking with access to future baseline stations was already essentially "fully in use". The only near-term Sound Transit parking is a plan to spend $200,000 per stall for Sounder-commuter train stations by 2025. All of the other added parking for light rail and BRT has been delayed, with no estimate as to final cost.
Sound Transit refuses to consider the alternative of providing access via local bus routes from where commuters live to BRT and light rail stations. Again, they delay the Ballard and West Seattle extension which minimizes the access problem having 70-80% of potential riders who live within walking distance of one of the 5 stations on each route.
The bottom line is the Seattle Times needs to acknowledge ST3 taxes were sold to the public in 2016 as a temporary supplement to ST2 taxes. Sound Transit's current realignment plan, if allowed to proceed, will extend that financial burden to our children's children. That any riders added by the plan that continues funding "baseline"extensions will diminish access for current Central Link riders. That their decision to continue a decade long failure to provide access to transit with added parking or local bus routes to transit stations precludes the increased transit ridership needed to reduce roadway congestion.
The only way to minimize all three problems is a "realignment" diverting "baseline" funds to West Seattle to Ballard link.
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