About this blog

My name is Bill Hirt and I'm a candidate to be a Representative from the 48th district in the Washington State legislature. My candidacy stems from concern the legislature is not properly overseeing the WSDOT and Sound Transit East Link light rail program. I believe East Link will be a disaster for the entire eastside. ST will spend 5-6 billion on a transportation project that will increase, not decrease cross-lake congestion, violates federal environmental laws, devastates a beautiful part of residential Bellevue, creates havoc in Bellevue's central business district, and does absolutely nothing to alleviate congestion on 1-90 and 405. The only winners with East Link are the Associated Builders and Contractors of Western Washington and their labor unions.

This blog is an attempt to get more public awareness of these concerns. Many of the articles are from 3 years of failed efforts to persuade the Bellevue City Council, King County Council, east side legislators, media, and other organizations to stop this debacle. I have no illusions about being elected. My hope is voters from throughout the east side will read of my candidacy and visit this Web site. If they don't find them persuasive I know at least I tried.

Tuesday, August 3, 2021

2021 Q1 Service Delivery Report Portends Northgate Link Debacle

 Sound Transit finally (July 17) released their Service Delivery Performance Report 2021 Q1.  It provided comparisons of transit system operations, costs and ridership during 2021 Q1 with Sound Transit budget predictions for the quarter.

They clearly portend bad news for the Northgate Link operation this fall.  The 2021 Q1 report predictions over estimated Link Light Rail ridership and under estimated operating costs.  The Link Light Rail 2021 Q1 budget predicted boardings, 3,695,750, were nearly 2.7 times actual boardings, 1,382,467.

The reduced boardings were reflected in the cost per boarding with actual costs, $26.12, 4.7 times $5.56 predicted in 2021 Q1 budget.  The boardings and cost per boarding in the report resulted in operating costs, $26.1M, 1.76 times predictions, $20.5M.

The predicted 2021 Q1 Revenue Vehicle Miles, 1,428,300 were 4.7 times actual vehicle miles, 305,226.  The operating cost and Revenue Vehicle Miles gave actual cost per vehicle mile, $118.39, 8.5 times $14.38 predicted in budget.

The Service Delivery Report 2021 Q1 predicted trips, 22,325, and actual trips, 16,664, in combination with Revenue Vehicle Miles gives 64.0 predicted vehicle miles per trip and 25.6 actual miles per trip.  The central Link route from UW to Angel Lake is ~20 miles.  Thus Sound Transit budget projected using 3-car trains for the route.  It's not clear how Sound Transit operated to limit actual vehicle miles per trip to 25.6.

The other "ominous" news for Northgate Link operation in the 2021 Q1 report is the drop in ridership in the bus routes it replaces.  They include Sound Transit routes 510-513, where weekday ridership fell from 6795 in 2020 Q1 to 1916, in 2021 Q1, and route 522 where ridership dropped from 3935 to 1127.  

The bottom line is Sound Transit's 2021 Q1 Service Delivery Report demonstrates their inability to predict light rail ridership and operating costs.  That it portends Northgate Link operation ridership will be a fraction of the 41,000 to 49,000 by 2022 Sound Transit projected in the website.  That operating costs will dwarf fare-box revenue resulting in huge subsidies required to cover shortfall.   That it's also a likely precursor for operating extensions beyond Northgate, Angel Lake, and across I-90 Bridge.


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