Northgate Link Compliance with UW Vibration Limits

The May 6th release of the Sound Transit Agency Progress Report: March:2021 included the following Risk management issue for Northgate Link operation:     

If there is a problem during vibration certification testing & analysis, acceptance by UW may be delayed, thereby delaying RSD (Revenue Service Date)

The same Risk Management issue was in the April 7th, February 2021 report.  The concern was the result of a "Master Implementation Agreement" (MIA) between Sound Transit and University of Washington regarding operation of light rail in a tunnel under the campus.

In no event shall Sound Transit commence Revenue Service on University properties if (Vibration and MF) Thresholds are exceeded.

A previous post had opined the April 9th announcement Northgate Link was to begin service Oct 2nd, just two days after February report was released was welcome, but "unexpected".  The assumption being between the April 7th report release and April 9th debut announcement the UW had concluded the Northgate Link "vibration certification testing" in January and February had demonstrated acceptable vibration and MF levels.

Thus it's not clear why the May 6th, March 2021 report still has the same "risk".   However it "may" explain why the Program Schedule in that report also shows the Northgate Link's Revenue Service Date as 26-Sept-22 nearly a year after the announced Oct 2nd debut.  

The fact remains three months after completing "vibration certification testing" and four months before revenue service is scheduled to begin the UW apparently still hasn't accepted Northgate Link vibration and MF levels.  What is Sound Transit plan to deal with the issue?                               

Eastside Residents Deserve Better

 My campaign for King County Executive continues my decade-long contention east side residents deserve better.  It began with my attempts to prevent Sound Transit from confiscating the I-90 Bridge center roadway and devastating the route into Bellevue for light rail limited to half the DSTT capacity.  Doing so precluded 2-way BRT on the bridge with 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10th the cost

It obviously failed so my attempt has shifted to attempting to mitigate the damage by trying to prevent King County Metro from terminating their buses on Mercer Island rather than continuing into and out of Seattle.  East Link's need for riders has prompted Sound Transit to use it to replace I-90 Bridge bus routes.  They refuse to recognize the bridge congestion is not due to too many buses.  The result of years of waiting and increased taxes the $3.5 billion spent on East Link will be I-90 corridor transit commuters forced to transfer to and from buses on Mercer Island for their commutes into and out of Seattle.

During peak morning commute their access will be limited by East Link capacity and they'll face chaos at DSTT stations and a wait on the island for their return bus routes.  When Northgate Link debuts, during peak commute, I-5 transit riders will still have the option of riding bus routes into and out of Seattle.  I-90 commuters deserve the same with East Link.  My campaign is to expose that need.

East side I-405 commuters also deserve better from both SoundTransit and WSDOT.  Other than extending East Link from Overlake to Redmond and a Kirkland-to-Issaquah light rail extension in 2041, the only east side benefit from ST3 taxes approved in 2016 was the 38-mile BRT connection between Lynnwood and Burien.  Sound Transit "neglected" to include BRT routes on SR520 to UW light rail station that would have benefited thousands of commuters from both sides of the lae

Prior to the vote the ST 3 map scheduled BRT to begin operation in 2024 with an estimated $812-$869 million (2014$) capital cost and 15,000-18,000 projected 2040 daily ridership.  However the Sound Transit  September 2019 Agency Progress Report, prior to COVID pandemic, later delayed operation with a 31-Dec-25 "Bus Rapid Transit-East Corridor" finish.

The latest Agency Progress Report, March 2021, is even less definitive about I-405 BRT operation with the following statement: 

Open for service date will depend on Board direction from realignment process.

Clearly I-405 BRT is not a priority with Sound Transit. When service does begin Sound Transit's version of BRT will be limited to a single bus route every 10 minutes making 10 stops between Lynnwood and Burien.   The latest available data on the I-405 HOV traffic is a January 8th, 2018, University of Minnesota "I-405 Traffic Data and Corridor Performance Analysis Final Report".  

It reported average 2017 January-to-June daily traffic volume was  229,857 Northbound and 266,858 Southbound or nearly 500,000 daily.  Thus, even if Sound Transit's version of BRT, 6 buses an hour, has 15,000 to 18,000 riders, it's a fraction of what's needed to reduce I-405 HOV travel times.

Even that ridership was at risk for BRT in 2016 because of the following proviso in the ST3 Map.

Relies on WSDOT to maintain adequate speed and reliability of I-405 express toll lane system.

A Dec 25, 2017 Seattle Times article, “I-405 express toll lanes between Renton, Bellevue on way” included the following WSDOT response to the congestion.

In 2019, work crews on Interstate 405 will start building a new lane in each direction between Renton and Bellevue, as part of a series of changes that aim to improve traffic low on what officials call Washington's worst corridor for congestion.

Yet more than four years later the WSDOT still hasn't begun adding the lanes.  Their plan to impose tolls on the new lanes as well as the current HOV lane shows they still don't recognize problems with 2 HOT lanes.  HOT fees reduce commute times by reducing the number of  vehicles on HOV lanes from those able to carpool to the 2000 vehicles per hour (vph) needed to assure 45 mph.  

However, imposing fees on the 2nd lane increases traffic on the remaining I-405 GP lanes to where more drivers are willing to pay the limited fees WSDOT charges.  During peak commute they increase traffic beyond the 2000 vph on both HOT lanes, slowing both BRT routes and those who pay the fees.  Pre-pandemic travel times between Lynnwood and Bellevue reflected that problem.

Reducing I-405 congestion requires WSDOT limit HOT from Lynnwood to Burien to one lane with fees raised to limit traffic to 2000 vph.  (The added GP lane also reduces congestion for those commuters.)  However the way to reduce congestion is for Sound Transit to include far more BRT routes as part of the 2000 vph. Rather than a 10-stop route from Lynnwood to Burien each P&R lot should have direct routes to Bellevue with riders provided by increased parking or local bus routes.

Again, east side residents deserve better form the taxes they pay for ST3 and the gas tax to WSDOT,   My campaign will advocate for how.

/  

King County Executive Candite's Voter's Pamphlet Statement

 My candidacy this year for King County Executive, like my previous 9 candidacies, is with no expectation or desire to win, but to inform voters.  This year the Northgate Link debut in September will vindicate those attempts to prevent Sound Transit from extending light rail routed through the DSTT beyond UW station, across I-90 Bridge, or beyond SeaTac.

Northgate operation will do nothing to reduce I-5 congestion into Seattle.  It will force I-5 commuters to transfer to and from light rail for the commute into and out of Seattle.  During peak commute those riders will limit access for University Link riders.  During off-peak, trains will be essentially empty and operating cost will soar.  The Northgate Link problems will be dwarfed when East link debuts in 2023, splitting DSTT capacity between I-90 Bridge and Central Link south.

ST has spent a decade refusing to increase transit ridership with added parking with access to increased bus capacity on I-5 and I-90 corridors.  Instead continues to spend hundred of millions annually on extensions beyond Northgate, Angel Lake, and Overlake that won't increase transit capacity rather than extensions to West Seattle and Ballard that would.

My candidacy this year is to also offer county residents the option of voting for someone who shares their concern with Democrats dominating state and local governments and most of the media.  Don't believe "white  supremacy is the country's top security threat".  Don't believe the country is systemically racist or that teaching the 1619 Project or Critical Race Theory  benefits the country.  Believes police departments need to be appreciated not defunded.

Also recognizes the futility of the state's attempt to reduce CO2 emission when the entire country only emits 15% of the total and that energy for EV batteries comes from fossil-fueled power plants.     

Candidacy Debunks Green New Deal

The April 26th Seattle Times headline, "Democrats score big wins as Legislature wraps up" reinforced my decision to file as a candidate for King County Executive.  As with my previous 9 candidacies it's with no expectation or desire to win but to use the Voter's Pamphlet to attract attention to this blog.  The previous candidacies have primarily been attempts to expose Sound Transit's failure to reduce area's congestion.  This year it's to allow residents unhappy with the "Democrat's big wins" to vote for someone who shares their concerns.  

The April 26th article demonstrates what happens when Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the governor's office, and the vast majority of the press and media.  The Times May 1 article, "State embarks on far-reaching effort to combat climate change", calling it, "the nation's most far reaching state-level attempt to clamp down on green house gas emissions" typifies the result.

The legislation essentially reflected Seattle Times editorials.  Their April 4th version urged legislators require polluters who emitted more than 25,000 tons of carbon bid each year for "their share of state's acceptable amount of emissions".  The legislation was estimated to "extract more than $470 million per year from carbon pollutes at its outset"

The Times April 18th editorial reported, "Only 72% of Washington Highways were in acceptable condition as of 2019".  Yet the paper applauded the legislature's decision to include a 9.8 cent per gallon increase to "Wisely spend about five times as much on environmental improvements as it does on road construction".

The Democrat Senate Majority leader's claim, "We listened, We acted," raises questions as to who he listened to.  They apparently weren't aware the entire country emits only 15% of the world's emissions. China emits twice that amount and has plans to nearly double those emission by 2030.

The April 4th editorial claim the 45% of Washington's annual emissions from transportation can be cut with electric cars ignores the fact nearly all of the battery charging power comes from fossil fueled generators.  It's "unlikely" any attempt to reduce Washington's carbon emissions, or the entire country's attempt will significantly reduce atmospheric CO2 levels.

Thus, it's "fortunate" the National Academy of Science published a November 2014 report entitled:

Shortwave and Longwave Radiative Contributions to Global Warming Under Increasing CO2.

It concluded:

Although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR).

Ice-core data have shown global warming, driven by the Sun, is also the reason for increasing CO2 in atmospheric, not the result.  The warmer temperatures increase out gassing from the ocean.  A NASA December 9th, 2019 paper "Solar Cycle 25 Prediction 2019--Bing" included charts with the following:

Global Warming Ruse-Temperatures Getting Colder, CO2 is not a player"

CO2 warming effect decreases with concentration. CO2 has less and less effect with increased concentration.  CO2 can go to 1000 to 2000 or to 5000 and it won't warm the earth.

I look forward to using my candidacy to inform voters both the NAS and NASA debunk the efficacy of the state's version of the "green new deal".