The previous three posts questioned why the Sound Transit Northgate Link extensions Revenue Service dates have been delayed until Sept 26th 2022 for the last 8 months of Agency Progress Reports. This post details why the debut either this September or next will demonstrate Sound Transit should not have routed Prop 1 light rail extensions through the DSTT. That using the extension to replace bus transit capacity will reduce total capacity into Seattle and limit access for current Central Link riders during peak commute. During off-peak operation, without added access, the ridership won't justify the high operating costs.
Reducing roadway congestion requires reducing traffic volume. The standard being limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour (vph) provides 45 mph velocity. Sound Transit made a major blunder a decade ago in not recognizing light rail routed through the DSTT Northgate Link does not have the capacity to accommodate the number of drivers needed to reduce I-5 traffic to that level during peak commute.
They could have added Northgate Link capacity with 100 bus routes an hour without spending a dime on light rail extensions. The bus's capacity for 10,000 riders an hour would have added the equivalent of 5 lanes of capacity into Seattle on I-5. And more could be added!! They could have been assured of 45 mph HOV lane velocity by using tolls to limit total traffic to the 2000 vph.
Instead the Northgate Link will demonstrate, like all the Prop 1 extensions, riders added will reduce access for Central Link riders. Sound Transit spent a decade refusing to add significant bus transit capacity into the city. CEO Peter Rogoff's 2019 long term budget for 2017-2041 budget demonstrated his incompetence by continuing the refusal to increase bus capacity for the next 20 years. Instead making delusional light rail ridership estimates that ignore DSTT limits.
The debut will also demonstrate the results of Sound Transit's decade long failure to increase access to public transit. Parking with access to transit has been full for years yet Sound Transit limits additional parking to 1000 stalls at Northgate Link stations, a fraction of what's needed.
Instead Sound Transit will use the Link to replace bus routes into Seattle. The debut will demonstrate reducing the number of buses when parking is available does little to reduce I-5 traffic volume and congestion. It will also demonstrate once lots are full the Northgate Link trains will be largely empty.
This lack of ridership for later buses prompted Sound Transit's 2018 "new parking management strategy" reserving parking for late arrivals. Yet without increased access bus transit ridership didn't increase and transit ridership won't increase with Northgate Link.
What will increase is light rail operating costs. Sound Transit budgets light rail car costs as ~$25 per mile. Routing a 3- or 4-car light rail train the 8.4 miles to Northgate and back will add $645 to $860 to the operating costs. (By comparison a bus costs Sound Transit ~$10 per mile. Routing the bus the 15 mile round trip from 5th and Union to Northgate and back costs $150.)
The November 19th video detailed Sound Transit plans for initial Northgate Link operation. Weekday intervals between trains were 8 minutes during 3-hour morning and afternoon peak commutes, 10 minutes during 10 hours off peak, and 15 minutes during 2 hours of late evening. The 113 weekday round trips from UW station to Northgate and back will add between $73,000 and $97,000 depending on how many are 3 or 4 car trains. However, without added access, the 60% of off-peak trains will be nearly empty.
The bottom line is the Northgate Link debut will demonstrate extending light rail lines routed through the DSTT doesn't have the capacity to reduce congestion during peak commute. That without added access the off-peak trains won't have the ridership to justify the operating costs. If allowed to continue congestion will increase and operating costs will create a financial black hole for the area's transportation funds.
Delaying that recognition just adds a year of CEO Rogoff's long-term plan to spend $96 billion over the next 20 years on a transit system expansion resulting in a $17 billion in debt, $1.5 billion in annual operating and maintenance costs, and no ST3 funds to pay for either.
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