The April 9th announcement Northgate Link will begin revenue service on Oct 2nd was welcome but "unexpected". The Link's Revenue Service date in the Sound Transit April 7th "Agency Progress Report: February 2021" was 26-Sept-22. The report's Risk Management" listed the following concern:
If there is a problem during vibration certification testing and analysis, acceptance by UW may be delayed, delaying RSD (Revenue Service Date)
The vibration concern was the result of a "Master Implementation Agreement" (MIA) between Sound Transit and University of Washington regarding operation of light rail in a tunnel under the campus.
In no event shall Sound Transit commence Revenue Service on University Properties if (Vibration and MF) Thresholds are exceeded
The concern was first included in the July 2020 report and was presumably the reason for "vibration certification testing" in January and February. The fact it remained an issue in the April 7th February 2021 report substantiated those concerns. Thus, the April 9th announcement for the Oct 2nd debut was "unexpected".
However it was welcome news because it will be the first demonstration whether Prop 1 extensions routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) will reduce congestion. Does the Northgate Link have the capacity for the number of peak-commute transit riders needed to reduce traffic volume on I-5? (A 2004 PSRC 2004 study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT limited light rail capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction, far less than needed during peak commute.)
Sound Transit chose to use the Link to replace bus routes into Seattle rather than add parking to increase access. The debut will demonstrate whether replacing bus routes from Northgate into Seattle reduces I-5 congestion. Will those forced to ride Northgate Link be turned off by the need to transfer from buses to light rail for the trip into Seattle and the hassle of accessing light rail at crowded DSTT stations and transferring back at Northgate for the return?
Replacing bus routes into Seattle also reduces total transit capacity into the city and very little to reduce HOV lane congestion. Will Northgate Link commuters limit access for University Link commuters? Without added parking for access, will off-peak trains be largely empty?
What the Northgate link won't do is "add 45,000 daily passengers" as suggested in the April 10th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article heralding the debut. That claim appears to be based on the average of the Northgate Link website claim "41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022". It typifies ST CEO Rogoff's delusional approach to ridership limited by DSTT capacity and lack of access. The King County Metro decision in the April 10th article to add three bus routes to the Northgate link stations also raises questions about Link capacity and ridership.
What the Northgate Link debut will demonstrate is the resulting increase in light rail operating costs. A previous post detailed routing a 3- or 4-car light rail train the 8.4 mile to Northgate and back will add $645 to $860 to the operating costs, more than doubling the 6.3 University Link round trip. It's not clear how much the added route lengths will add to the current $2.50 fares for University Link to University Street. (KCM one-county fares $2.75)
Sound Transit's Northgate Link schedules for 113 weekday round trips will add between $73,000 and $97,000 depending on how many are 3 or 4 car trains. Again, without added access, the 60% of off-peak trains will be largely empty.
The bottom line is the Northgate Link debut will allow Sound Transit to demonstrate whether a light rail extensions routed through the DSTT can reduce congestion on I-5 into Seattle. For years Sound Transit has claimed "commuters can't wait for light rail to their area". The Traffic Lab should "dig into" the reduction in WSDOT I-5 travel times with the $2 billion extension. Also how many commuters will each of the three Northgate Link stations add and do they limit access for University Link riders. What does the extension add to Central Link's daily fare box revenue/operating cost shortfall.
If the PSRC was correct and the Link doesn't reduce congestion it makes not sense to extend light rail to Lynnwood. It also would make no sense to extend light rail beyond Angel Lake to Federal Way. Especially since East Link operation will halve the DSTT capacity to Angel Lake and fail to reduce I-90 Bridge congestion. The lack of ridership, impact on University Link commuters, and fare box shortfall add to that failure.
At this point it's too late to stop those extensions. Instead we will be left with a belated recognition the PSRC was right. Still it could limit CEO Rogoff's 2020 Budget long-term expansion plan. It spends $96 billion over the net 20 years on a transit system expansion. resulting in a $17 billion, $1.5 billion in annual operating and maintenance costs, and no ST3 funds to pay for either.
Again, it's welcome news the debut is this year not next. Sound Transit should be required to provide the results before getting any additional funding and prior to any 2022 budget approval.
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