Thirty Years of IPCC Incompetence

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Policy (IPCC) defines itself as “the UN body for assessing the science related to climate change”. It was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Program to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation.

Since 1988 the IPCC has produced five comprehensive Assessment Reports and several Special Reports on specific topics. They've also produced Methodology Reports, which provide practical guidelines on the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories for the inventory reporting requirements of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was finalized between 2013 and 2014. Its key findings were:

·                  Human influence on the climate system is clear

·                  The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts

·                  We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future

The IPCC claim for “human influence” is based on their assessment fossil emissions will raise atmospheric CO2 levels, increasing global temperatures, and "risk severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts".  No one doubts additional CO2 can increase global warming by allowing solar rays through atmosphere and blocking radiation back to space.  Venus exemplifies that influence, however its atmosphere is 96.5% CO2. 

The question becomes whether the human influence from increasing fossil CO2 emissions beyond current 0.04% atmospheric level can have a similar affect  The IPCC AR5 SPM, “Summary Report for Policy Makers” includes on page 4, Figure SPM 1 (a) Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly 1850–2012.  It shows plots of annual average temperatures and decadal average temperatures. 

They both show annual and decadal temperatures rose between 1910 and 1950, were relatively flat from 1950 to 1970 and rose from 1970 to 2012 at the same rate as they did from 1910 to 1950.  Meanwhile fossil CO2 emissions, nearly all from coal, were relatively flat from 1910 to 1950.  From 1950 to 1970 the added emissions from oil and gas more than doubled fossil CO2 emissions. They continued to increase until 1990 with subsequent emissions adding 70% by 2017.  (That increase was largely the result of China increasing emissions from 2,397 million tons  (Mt) in 1990 to 10,877 Mt in 2017, double US 5,107 Mt emissions.)

Thus by 1990 IPCC already had ample evidence to debunk their decision to attribute global warming to fossil emissions. That increases in fossil emissions did not have their purported ten times the effect on global temperatures as increases in energy from the Sun.  First the fact that global temperatures had increased from 1910 to 1950 at the same rate as from 1970 to 1990 despite the fact fossil emissions had increased very little.  Second that the global temperatures from 1950 to 1970 were relatively flat despite the substantial increase in fossil emissions.  After 1990 the IPCC continued to ignore the fact subsequent temperature increases continued at the same rate as from 1970 despite the 70% increase between 1990 and 2017, failing to reflect purported sensitivity.

The IPCC is currently in the process of conducting their 6^th Assessment Cycle.  For thirty years they’ve failed to recognize the lack of correlation between global temperatures and fossil emissions.   They've also failed to demonstrate the ability to limit fossil emissions so it’s time they concede fossil emissions are not an existential threat.  That global temperatures, driven by the Sun, are increasing CO2 out gassing from ocean.  That increasing global temperatures are the reason for increasing CO2 in atmosphere not the result. 

The entire world has already paid a heavy price for IPCC incompetence.  Their claim "We have the means to limit change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future" is beyond incompetent.  My goal as a global warming denier gubernatorial candidate is to begin exposing this reality.