The Northgate Link Debacle is Just the Beginning

Sound Transit’s Northgate Link operation in 2021 will be the first demonstration of the failure of light rail routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) to reduce congestion into Seattle.  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, limited DSTT capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction, a fraction of the transit capacity needed to reduce I-5 or I-90 congestion.   

Rather than extending light rail to Northgate, Sound Transit could have terminated light rail at the University Link stadium station.  A T/C there would have provided an interface between 520 bus routes and light rail into Seattle. The initial Central Link proposal included a second Montlake Cut bridge to facilitate the 520 bus connections.  Thousands of commuters from both sides of the lake would’ve already benefitted for years if Sound Transit had added 520 BRT routes and used the University Link’s 8880 rph capacity for their commutes into and out of the city.

Instead Sound Transit agreed to pay UW $20 million to tunnel under the university and use the University Link to replace local bus routes rather than increase 520 bus transit capacity.  The fact that doing so assured WSDOT 520 toll revenue and maintained East Link as the Microsoft connection “may” have influenced their decision.

Sound Transit’s website describes Northgate Link with “Facts”, a 4.3 mile, 3 station extension that will operate every 6 minutes during peak hours with projected ridership, 41,000 to 49,000 daily riders by 2022.  The website doesn’t mention the cost but earlier projections have been for $2.1 billion.

It’s "questionable" why the Northgate Link trains will run every 6 minutes since trains across I-90 and south to Federal Way that share the DSTT capacity are both scheduled to run every 6 minutes.  Sound Transit projections for 41,000 to 49,000 riders goes beyond "questionable" to delusional. 

First is the lack of capacity.  If 80% of the commuters did so into and out of Seattle during the 3-hr morning and afternoon commutes, each of the 60 Northgate trains would have to accommodate 547 to 654 riders.  Each of the four 74-seat Northgate light rail cars would have to accommodate 137 to 164 riders leaving “very little” capacity for University Link riders

The second is lack of access for riders.  All of the existing parking with access to Prop 1 extension stations has been full for years with bus riders.  Yet Sound Transit plans to provide access with added parking are limited primarily to waiting until 2024 to begin spending  $698 million to add 8560 stalls by 2041 for all of the Prop 1 extensions.   Sound Transit also has no plans to provide commuters access via local bus routes to stations.

Instead Sound Transit will use Prop 1 operations to replace bus routes into and out of Seattle.  Those using Northgate bus routes into and out of Seattle will be forced to use the extension via the University Link for their commute.  Those riding buses from stations beyond Northgate will be forced to transfer to and from light rail at Northgate for the commute.  The only "beneficiaries" of Northgate Link will be I-5 corridor commuters wanting access to UW.  

Anyone with a modicum of transportation system competence would have recognized these realities.  Even a cursory audit would have done so if authorized by legislature or advocated for by Seattle Times.  Instead billions have been wasted and more will be wasted until Northgate Link operation next year provides the first example of that failure. 

         Its operation should mark the "beginning of the end" for Prop 1 extensions rather  than the "end of the beginning".