Ending the Prop 1 Debacle

The previous post detailed why next year’s Northgate Link operation should mark the beginning of the end of more than a decade of Sound Transit failure to reduce the area's congestion.  Its operation in 2021 will demonstrate extending light rail beyond University Link light rail station does nothing to increase transit capacity limited by the DSTT.  That using the Northgate Link to replace bus routes into Seattle will reduce access for University Link riders, reduce transit capacity into Seattle, and do nothing to reduce congestion into Seattle. 

All of this could have been avoided if the Seattle Times had ever included the need for legislation requiring Sound Transit be audited in their list of top ten priorities.  The audit would have prevented Sound Transit from spending $1,120 million on Northgate Link and $2,440 million on East Link between 2017 and 2019 or budgeting $126 million for Northgate and $600 million for East Link in 2020 budget. 

Preventing East Link funding would have avoided one of the biggest transportation boondoggles in history; Sound Transit’s confiscation of I-90 Bridge center roadway for the East Link light rail extension.   When it begins operation in 2023 Central Link capacity into Seattle from SeaTac will be cut in half.  Sound Transit should have never been allowed to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway or devastate the route into Bellevue for a light rail extension limited to half DSTT capacity. 

Their “bus intercept” plan exacerbates the lack of capacity problem. It uses light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle with an agreement to halve I-90 corridor bus routes in order to terminate them on Mercer Island. Thousands of I-90 corridor commuters will lose access to transit, exacerbating congestion along the entire route into Seattle.  The entire east side will feel the impact of this debacle when East Link begins operation in 2023.

The audit would also have prevented Sound Transit from spending the $400 million for Lynnwood and $240 million for Federal Way they budgeted in 2019.  The 2020 budget spends an additional $505 million on Lynnwood and $314 million on Federal Way. The 2019 and 2020 budgets for both seem an attempt to make the extensions a fait accompli rather than to meet the need to begin operation in 2024.

At this point nothing can be done about the East Link debacle or the Lynnwood or Federal Way funding for 2019 and 2020.  However an audit this year could still prevent additional expenditures next year; slashing Sound Transit’s $1.75 billion Capital Expenditures budget for 2021 light rail extensions to Lynnwood and beyond and to Federal Way and beyond.     

Even without the audit, Northgate Link operation in 2021 will demonstrate the extensions failure to reduce congestion.  That Sound Transit projections for 41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022 were absurd.  Even Sound Transit should recognize the futility of spending the $6 billion in their Capital Expenditures budget for 2022 to 2024 on light rail extensions to move where bus riders are forced to transfer to light rail.  They only increase the operating costs.

The bottom line is there are two ways to end the Prop 1 debacle.  The first is an audit, a better late than never recognition the area has already paid a heavy price for not requiring Sound Transit be audited years ago.  Still, an audit this year could reduce future futile expenditures.  The legislators could require it.  However, even without the audit, Northgate Link operation in 2021 will demonstrate the failure of light rail routed through the DSTT to reduce congestion.   

The only question is whether Sound Transit will recognize that reality or ignore it.