An Audit Would End Car Tab Fees and More

The Sound Transit Board’s comment in the Feb 14^th article on I-976 personifies a decade of board arrogance:   “ST3 car-tab taxes should be lowered to reflect market value of vehicles, but only if the Legislature finds replacement money”’.    They seem to forget it was Sound Transit board members who in 2015 initially asked the legislature to enable the public to vote for an additional $1 billion a year in taxes for 15 years to fund ST3 “Prop 1 and beyond” extensions. 

Sound Transit used that legislation to get public approval for $54 billion in additional taxes by 2041.  Sound Transit’s 2019 budget projects ST3 passage will result in $64 billion in taxes during the period.  Their 2019 budget projects MVET will only generate about $6 billion of that total.   That still leaves  $44 billion more than what the board initially asked for. 

Rather than “find replacement money” the legislature should require Sound Transit be audited to explain the need for the additional $44 billion for the ST3 extensions.  Even more important the audit should require they explain how the extensions will reduce congestion on the area’s roadways.  It’s something they should have been required to do a decade ago. 

Even a cursory audit would have concluded the Sound Transit decision to route Prop 1 extensions through the DSTT limited capacity to a fraction of what was needed to reduce roadway congestion.   That Sound Transit will exacerbate the extension’s capacity problem by using them to replace bus routes for the commutes into and out of Seattle.  The result being transit capacity into Seattle will be reduced and any riders added by the extensions will reduce access for current riders.   That spending billions on extensions to replace bus routes does nothing to increase the transit ridership needed to reduce congestion.

At this point nothing can be done about the billions already spent on extensions beyond University Link and SeaTac or on East Link.  However an audit could still refute Sound Transit extension ridership claims.   That Sound Transit’s claim for 41,000 to 49,000 Northgate Link riders by 2022 was delusional.  That claims the extensions to Lynnwood would attract an additional 47,000 to 55,000 daily riders by 2026 were even more absurd. 

The Lynnwood claim presumably played a major role in Sound Transit getting a $1.2 billion FTA federal grant in 2018.   The $790 million FTA commitment to Federal Way last year was also likely the result of Sound Transit’s claim Lynnwood and Federal Way extensions would add 90,000 daily riders.   

It’s not clear what an audit debunking Sound Transit ridership claims would do to the FTA grants.   However an audit could prevent them from spending much of their $1.75 billion Capital Expenditures 2021 budget on the extensions to Lynnwood and beyond and to Federal Way and beyond.    Those savings would dwarf the loss from I-976, ending the need for replacement funding.

Lacking the audit it will take another year to refute Sound Transit funding needs.  Northgate Link operation in 2021 will debunk Sound Transit claims not only for light rail ridership but claims for benefits from using light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle.  Sound Transit should recognize the failure of Northgate operation to reduce congestion will mark the end of the need for funding extensions to Lynnwood and beyond and to Federal Way, ending the need for car tab fees and other ST3 taxes.   

The Northgate Link demonstration will also be a precursor to East Link operation in 2023.  That will not only debunk any Sound Transit claims for east side benefits, it will halve capacity from Seatac to Seattle belying any benefits for extensions to Federal Way and beyond.   Further justifying the reduction in ST3 funding.

The bottom line is it’s only a question of whether an audit, Northgate Link operation and East Link operation demonstrate Sound Transit shouldn’t have access to car tab fees.  That ST3 funds should not be spent replacing bus routes with light rail that won’t reduce congestion but expanding bus transit ridership that will.

An audit will expedite both and save billions.

Sound Transit Car Tab Fee Lies Continue

The Seattle Times Feb.14^th headline, “High court backs Sound Transit on car tabs” is just the latest example of their abiding if not abetting Sound Transit lies about car tab fees.

It began with a Sound Transit 7/8/2016 post entitled: “ST3 plan would cost typical adult $169 annually or $14 per month”.

It included the following:

Here’s how much a typical adult would pay if ST3 is approved:

MVET

An adult owning the median value motor vehicle would pay an additional $43 per year in MVET if ST3 were passed. The updated calculation reflects an annual median value $5,333 of vehicles in the Sound Transit District. MVET taxes are determined by a state of Washington depreciation schedule for a specific vehicle’s model and production year. The previous calculation relied on a less representative average vehicle value of $10,135 for the more expansive tri-county area, for a significantly higher annual cost of $78 per adult. 

Yet the Times abetted Sound Transit's response to voter complaints, an April 2017 post headlined “Sound Transit 3 car tab rollback threatens light rail to Everett”:

During the campaign, Sound Transit was completely transparent about the taxes. We all knew that our car tabs would increase a lot in 2017 to help fund Sound Transit. So when the first invoices arrived, the vast majority of people just paid their tabs. But a vocal minority, with big tabs from expensive cars, took their displeasure to Olympia, hoping that the Legislature would listen to their stories and disregard the will of the people.

Sound Transit clearly lied about what car tabs would cost and then lied about lying.  While the decision only deals with whether the car tabs were constitutional the Sound Transit lawyer Desmond Brown argued, “The case is of enormous consequences”.  He told the court, “The loss of MVET revenue will represent a loss of between $15 to $18 billion in revenue needed to finish the system”. 

However Sound Transit’s 2019 Budget depicting 2017-2041 tax revenue shows MVET approximately $350 million annually until 2028 at which time it drops to $200 million gradually increasing to $300 million in 2041.  The total MVET fees from 2020 to 2041 when the extensions are compete is only about $6 billion.  That’s out of the 2019 budgets expectations for $64 billion in taxes for 2017 to 2041, presumably “needed to finish the system”.  Yet the Times abides Brown’s claim “we either have to eliminate or even substantially delay a number of major projects”. 

Browns claims I-976 doesn’t force any tax cut because Sound Transit already pledged car-tab revenue to pay off construction bonds.  Yet Sound Transit’s 2019 Budget depicting Debt Capacity shows a “Principle Balance on Tax-Based Debt” of only $6 billion with no plans to increase until 2023.  That “debt service payments” in the Expenditures chart averages $100 million over the next ten years.  That’s out of yearly budgets that average more than $3.5 billion for the decade.  

The bottom line is ST3 would probably never have been approved is Sound Transit had not lied about their cost. They followed that by lying about lying.  Now, at least by their own 2019 budget, they’re lying about what I-976 will cost them, its impact on schedules and their ability to fund bonds.  

But then Sound Transit has spent the last ten years lying about the ridership of Prop 1 light rail extensions routed through the DSTT,  They've compounded that mendacity by planing to use the extensions to replace bus routes into Seattle rather than Increase transit ridership.  Northgate Link operation next year will demonstrate the impact of those mendacities dwarfs car tab fees lies and will likely make them moot.  

Until then the Seattle Times, who have abided if not abetted those mendacities, should stop and urge the Supreme Court allow I-976 to proceed.

Ending the Prop 1 Debacle

The previous post detailed why next year’s Northgate Link operation should mark the beginning of the end of more than a decade of Sound Transit failure to reduce the area's congestion.  Its operation in 2021 will demonstrate extending light rail beyond University Link light rail station does nothing to increase transit capacity limited by the DSTT.  That using the Northgate Link to replace bus routes into Seattle will reduce access for University Link riders, reduce transit capacity into Seattle, and do nothing to reduce congestion into Seattle. 

All of this could have been avoided if the Seattle Times had ever included the need for legislation requiring Sound Transit be audited in their list of top ten priorities.  The audit would have prevented Sound Transit from spending $1,120 million on Northgate Link and $2,440 million on East Link between 2017 and 2019 or budgeting $126 million for Northgate and $600 million for East Link in 2020 budget. 

Preventing East Link funding would have avoided one of the biggest transportation boondoggles in history; Sound Transit’s confiscation of I-90 Bridge center roadway for the East Link light rail extension.   When it begins operation in 2023 Central Link capacity into Seattle from SeaTac will be cut in half.  Sound Transit should have never been allowed to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway or devastate the route into Bellevue for a light rail extension limited to half DSTT capacity. 

Their “bus intercept” plan exacerbates the lack of capacity problem. It uses light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle with an agreement to halve I-90 corridor bus routes in order to terminate them on Mercer Island. Thousands of I-90 corridor commuters will lose access to transit, exacerbating congestion along the entire route into Seattle.  The entire east side will feel the impact of this debacle when East Link begins operation in 2023.

The audit would also have prevented Sound Transit from spending the $400 million for Lynnwood and $240 million for Federal Way they budgeted in 2019.  The 2020 budget spends an additional $505 million on Lynnwood and $314 million on Federal Way. The 2019 and 2020 budgets for both seem an attempt to make the extensions a fait accompli rather than to meet the need to begin operation in 2024.

At this point nothing can be done about the East Link debacle or the Lynnwood or Federal Way funding for 2019 and 2020.  However an audit this year could still prevent additional expenditures next year; slashing Sound Transit’s $1.75 billion Capital Expenditures budget for 2021 light rail extensions to Lynnwood and beyond and to Federal Way and beyond.     

Even without the audit, Northgate Link operation in 2021 will demonstrate the extensions failure to reduce congestion.  That Sound Transit projections for 41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022 were absurd.  Even Sound Transit should recognize the futility of spending the $6 billion in their Capital Expenditures budget for 2022 to 2024 on light rail extensions to move where bus riders are forced to transfer to light rail.  They only increase the operating costs.

The bottom line is there are two ways to end the Prop 1 debacle.  The first is an audit, a better late than never recognition the area has already paid a heavy price for not requiring Sound Transit be audited years ago.  Still, an audit this year could reduce future futile expenditures.  The legislators could require it.  However, even without the audit, Northgate Link operation in 2021 will demonstrate the failure of light rail routed through the DSTT to reduce congestion.   

The only question is whether Sound Transit will recognize that reality or ignore it.

The Northgate Link Debacle is Just the Beginning

Sound Transit’s Northgate Link operation in 2021 will be the first demonstration of the failure of light rail routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) to reduce congestion into Seattle.  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, limited DSTT capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction, a fraction of the transit capacity needed to reduce I-5 or I-90 congestion.   

Rather than extending light rail to Northgate, Sound Transit could have terminated light rail at the University Link stadium station.  A T/C there would have provided an interface between 520 bus routes and light rail into Seattle. The initial Central Link proposal included a second Montlake Cut bridge to facilitate the 520 bus connections.  Thousands of commuters from both sides of the lake would’ve already benefitted for years if Sound Transit had added 520 BRT routes and used the University Link’s 8880 rph capacity for their commutes into and out of the city.

Instead Sound Transit agreed to pay UW $20 million to tunnel under the university and use the University Link to replace local bus routes rather than increase 520 bus transit capacity.  The fact that doing so assured WSDOT 520 toll revenue and maintained East Link as the Microsoft connection “may” have influenced their decision.

Sound Transit’s website describes Northgate Link with “Facts”, a 4.3 mile, 3 station extension that will operate every 6 minutes during peak hours with projected ridership, 41,000 to 49,000 daily riders by 2022.  The website doesn’t mention the cost but earlier projections have been for $2.1 billion.

It’s "questionable" why the Northgate Link trains will run every 6 minutes since trains across I-90 and south to Federal Way that share the DSTT capacity are both scheduled to run every 6 minutes.  Sound Transit projections for 41,000 to 49,000 riders goes beyond "questionable" to delusional. 

First is the lack of capacity.  If 80% of the commuters did so into and out of Seattle during the 3-hr morning and afternoon commutes, each of the 60 Northgate trains would have to accommodate 547 to 654 riders.  Each of the four 74-seat Northgate light rail cars would have to accommodate 137 to 164 riders leaving “very little” capacity for University Link riders

The second is lack of access for riders.  All of the existing parking with access to Prop 1 extension stations has been full for years with bus riders.  Yet Sound Transit plans to provide access with added parking are limited primarily to waiting until 2024 to begin spending  $698 million to add 8560 stalls by 2041 for all of the Prop 1 extensions.   Sound Transit also has no plans to provide commuters access via local bus routes to stations.

Instead Sound Transit will use Prop 1 operations to replace bus routes into and out of Seattle.  Those using Northgate bus routes into and out of Seattle will be forced to use the extension via the University Link for their commute.  Those riding buses from stations beyond Northgate will be forced to transfer to and from light rail at Northgate for the commute.  The only "beneficiaries" of Northgate Link will be I-5 corridor commuters wanting access to UW.  

Anyone with a modicum of transportation system competence would have recognized these realities.  Even a cursory audit would have done so if authorized by legislature or advocated for by Seattle Times.  Instead billions have been wasted and more will be wasted until Northgate Link operation next year provides the first example of that failure. 

         Its operation should mark the "beginning of the end" for Prop 1 extensions rather  than the "end of the beginning". 

The Northgate Link Debacle is Just the Beginning

Sound Transit’s Northgate Link operation in 2021 will be the first demonstration of the failure of light rail routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) to reduce congestion into Seattle.  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, limited DSTT capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction, a fraction of the transit capacity needed to reduce I-5 or I-90 congestion.   

Rather than extending light rail to Northgate, Sound Transit could have terminated light rail at the University Link stadium station.  A T/C there would have provided an interface between 520 bus routes and light rail into Seattle. The initial Central Link proposal included a second Montlake Cut bridge to facilitate the 520 bus connections.  Thousands of commuters from both sides of the lake would’ve already benefitted for years if Sound Transit had added 520 BRT routes and used the University Link’s 8880 rph capacity for their commutes into and out of the city.

Instead Sound Transit agreed to pay UW $20 million to tunnel under the university and use the University Link to replace local bus routes rather than increase 520 bus transit capacity.   The fact that doing so assured WSDOT 520 toll revenue and maintained East Link as the Microsoft connection “may” have influenced their decision.

Sound Transit’s website describes Northgate Link with “Facts”, a 4.3 mile, 3 station extension that will operate every 6 minutes during peak hours with projected ridership, 41,000 to 49,000 daily riders by 2022.  The website doesn’t mention the cost but earlier projections have been for $2.1 billion.

It’s "questionable" why the Northgate Link trains will run every 6 minutes since trains across I-90 and south to Federal Way that share the DSTT capacity are both scheduled to run every 6 minutes.  Sound Transit projections for 41,000 to 49,000 riders goes beyond "questionable" to delusional. 

First is the lack of capacity.  If 80% of the commuters did so into and out of Seattle during the 3-hr morning and afternoon commutes, each of the 60 Northgate trains would have to accommodate 547 to 654 riders.  Each of the four 74-seat Northgate light rail cars would have to accommodate 137 to 164 riders leaving “very little” capacity for University Link riders

The second is lack of access for riders.  All of the existing parking with access to Prop 1 extension stations has been full for years with bus riders.  Yet Sound Transit plans to provide access with added parking are limited primarily to waiting until 2024 to begin spending  $698 million to add 8560 stalls by 2041 for all of the Prop 1 extensions.   Sound Transit also has no plans to provide commuters access via local bus routes to stations.

Instead Sound Transit will use Prop 1 operations to replace bus routes into and out of Seattle.  Those using Northgate bus routes into and out of Seattle will be forced to use the extension via the University Link for their commute.  Those riding buses from stations beyond Northgate will be forced to transfer to and from light rail at Northgate for the commute.  The only "beneficiaries" of Northgate Link will be I-5 corridor commuters wanting access to UW.  

Anyone with a modicum of transportation system competence would have recognized these realities.  Even a cursory audit would have done so if authorized by legislature or advocated for by Seattle Times.  Instead billions have been wasted and more will be wasted until Northgate Link operation next year provides the first example of that failure. 

         Its operation should mark the "beginning of the end" for Prop 1 extensions rather  than the "end of the beginning".