Seattle Times Traffic Lab Incompetence

The Seattle Times touts their Traffic Lab as a “project that digs into the region’s thorny transportation issues, spotlights promising approaches to easing gridlock and helps readers find the best ways to get around.”   One would think the Times, whose banner proudly proclaims as “The Winner of Ten Pulitzers,” would assign journalists with a least a modicum of competence regarding transportation issues to the Traffic Lab.  However multiple posts on this blog have detailed the Traffic Lab’s failure to “dig into the thorny transportation issues” regarding both Sound Transit and the WSDOT response to area’s transportation problem

For example anyone with a modicum of competence would've recognized Sound Transit failure to increase express bus revenue miles over the last ten years has been a “major contributor” to the increasing congestion on I-5, I-90, and SR 520 corridors into Seattle.  Yet the Traffic Lab ignored their failure to increase bus service or to provide any significant parking with access to bus routes into the city during the ten years since Prop 1  approval.

Sound Transit's could have resolved problems with over-crowded buses on early routes and empty seats on later buses with more bus routes for early commuters and more parking space for later commuters to ride buses.  Instead the Traffic Lab promoted Sound Transit’s recent decision to reserve 50% of the parking for later arrivals.   

Rather than add parking or bus service with access to corridors into Seattle over the last ten years Sound Transit recently decided to spend $300 million on an I-405 bus T/C near Kirkland with no parking for access.   The worst the Traffic Lab could say about this stupidity was to call the T/C a “gamble”.

Another example is the Traffic Lab’s apparent support for WSDOT plans to implement 2 HOT lanes on I-405 between Lynnwood and Renton.  Again anyone with a modicum of competence would’ve recognized the absurdity of  WSDOT claims they used to justify 2 HOT lanes. “HOT lanes often carry 35 percent more cars per hour than general lanes. That’s because rising prices prevent toll lanes from being clogged.”  Or that, “Express toll lanes flow better” while “GP lanes will be clogged from the start”. 

It doesn't take much transportation competence to recognize traffic volume on any highway lane, be they HOT or GP needs to be limited to around 2000 vehicles per hour (vph) to achieve 45 mph.   That implementing 2 HOT lanes between Bothell and Bellevue increases congestion on the remaining 3 GP lanes to where, during the peak commute, more drivers are willing to pay the $10 tolls than the 2000 vph the HOT lanes can accommodate and still achieve the 45 mph.   WSDOT plans to limit GP usage to only 2 lanes over the rest of the route will surely exacerbate the problem. 

The obvious solution is to limit HOT to one lane with fees set to what’s required to limit traffic to 2000 vph and allow GP use of an additional lane.  The added GP lane would likely reduce congestion to where fewer commuters would feel the need to pay for HOT, reducing the fees required to maintain 45 mph.  The assured velocity on the HOT lanes would also provide reliable bus schedules if Sound Transit would ever add the parking and bus routes needed to effectively use it.  Yet the Traffic Lab ignores this opportunity and continues to support WSDOT plans for 2 HOT lanes and ignores Sound Transit failure to add significant parking and bus routes along I-405.

However, the most egregious example of Traffic Lab’s  incompetence is their support of Sound Transit’s “Prop 1 and Beyond” light rail spine.  Sound Transit made a major blunder when they decided to use Prop 1 funds to extend Central Link routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT).

The previous post detailed how a DC Metro line provided up to eight 190-seat cars to reduce congestion along one of the major roadways into the city (e.g. orange line along I-50,)  The DSTT limits Central Link trains to four 74-seat cars.  Yet, Sound Transit attempts to use Central Link to not only reduce congestion on I-5 into Seattle from the north, but along both I-5 into Seattle from the south and I-90 from the east.

A 2004 PSRC report concluded safe operation through the DSTT required 4 minutes between trains and that each car could accommodate 148 riders for a total capacity of 8880 riders per hour in each direction; far less than what’s required to significantly reduce congestion on any major roadway (let alone two).  

Spending billions extending light rail does nothing to increase that capacity.  However, every mile extension, not only costs Sound Transit $300 million, it adds $200 to the operating cost for a 4-car train round trip. Since capacity doesn't increase fares will have toe increase substantially to avoid a huge revenue shortfall.  Meanwhile, any riders added by the extensions will simply reduce access for current riders.  That’s especially relevant to the vast majority of Central Link riders into Seattle from the south since they will have already had half their trains diverted by East Link across I-90 Bridge to Bellevue.  Traffic Lab also raised no objections to Sound Transit confiscation of the I-90 Bridge center roadway.  East Link, limited to one 4-car train every 8 minutes, will never have the transit capacity needed to reduce cross-lake congestion.

A competent journalist would have also recognized even the DSTT's limited capacity is of dubious value.  DC Metro lines typically include up to 6 stations into the city for commuter egress and access.  The vast majority of Central Link riders will use the two stations in the DSTT to do so.  The number of riders using stations at a given time will be limited by the train capacity so egress in the tunnel should not be a problem.

However, there’s no limit to the number of commuters wanting to use one of the two stations for access to Central Link for their return ride.  It’s “unlikely” platform space with stations limited to 4 cars will be able to accommodate all the potential return riders during peak commute.   The resulting chaos for those commuters would seem to be a strong disincentive to ever use Central Link.

The bottom line is the entire area has suffered because of the Traffic Lab’s failure to demonstrate even a modicum of competence.  Congestion on roadways into Seattle would have been dramatically reduced if Sound Transit had spent Prop 1 funds adding parking and bus routes.  Billions have already been spent on a light rail spine routed through the DSTT that will never have the capacity to significantly reduce congestion on roadways into Seattle.  That WSDOT implementation of two HOT lanes on I-405 increased GP lane congestion and failed to meet mandated 45 mph between Bothell and Bellevue. 

Unfortunately, at this stage, the Seattle Times Traffic Lab is the only venue able to effectively expose the reality CEO Rogoff's Sound Transit plans to spend most of ST3 $54 billon over the next 20 years on light rail extensions will only enrich construction companies and their unions and do nothing to reduce congestion into Seattle.  That WSDOT plans for 2 HOT lanes on I-405 will not only increase revenue, they'll dramatically increase GP lane congestion and fail to provide the 45 mph velocities during peak commute for transit buses and those willing to pay. 

One can only hope the Traffic Lab will recognize the folly of allowing both organizations to proceed with current plans.  The entire area will pay a heavy price if they don't.