Sound Transit Problems Way Beyond CEO Rogoff’s “Management Style”

The Seattle Times March 2^nd BI page article “Sound Transit chief denied bonus over management style” is just the “tip of the iceberg when it comes to CEO Rogoff’s “deficiencies”.  However, the area should be far more concerned about Sound Transit board's approach to public transit than with Rogoff's "east coast attitude and leadership style".  It’s not clear what his background was that led to his previous position as Under Secretary of Transportation for Policy in the U.S. Department of Transportation. County Executive Dow Constantine’s decision to hire him as Sound Transit CEO was presumably based on this background though others may conclude he was hired as a “reward” for the $1.2 B Lynnwood federal grant while there. 

Whatever his  background, anyone with a modicum of public transit competence would have recognized extending light rail that was routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel  (DSTT) does nothing to increase its limited capacity into the city.   Constantine’s decision to hire Rogoff, while maybe not a reward, is because his Lynnwood federal grant “suggested”  a willingness to go along with the extensions.

Constantine’s faith in Rogoff has certainly been “rewarded”.    Rogoff was instrumental in getting ST3 passed. (He also hosted a campaign soiree where "would be" benefactors from the billions spent on ST3 likely contributed to Constantine's $1 million County Executive campaign fund.)  He managed to convert  legislation enabling 15 years of billion dollar tax increases to at least 30 years with no limit on further extensions.  Sound Transit, under his leadership, “misled” voters about car tab fees with a Sound Transit 7/8/2016 post claiming:

An adult owning the median value motor vehicle would pay an additional $43 per year in MVET if ST3 were passed.

 Sound Transit subsequently deleted the post and responded to later complaints about car tab fees, some more than ten times the $43 promised, with the following:

During the campaign, Sound Transit was completely transparent about the taxes. We all knew that our car tabs would increase a lot in 2017 to help fund Sound Transit.

Clearly, Rogoff’s Sound Transit not only “misled” voters about car tab costs prior to the vote, they lied about doing so afterwards.  Also, their claims for ST3 ridership prior to the vote were sheer fantasy. The PSRC 2004 Technical Workbook,  “Central Puget Sound Region High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment” concluded the DSTT station lengths limit trains to four cars and that safe operation requires a minimum of 4 minutes between trains, or 60 light rail cars per hour.  The PSRC Technical Workbook also concluded the capacity of the 74-seat light rail cars was limited to 148 riders for a total capacity of 8880 riders per hour (rph).  

Yet prior to the 2016 ST3 vote the Sound Transit 3 map detailing expansions claimed extending light rail from Northgate to Everett would increase ridership by up to 119,000 daily.  Assuming PSRC capacity, it would take more than 13 hours each day to accommodate the 119,000 riders.  Needless to say those attempting to get on Central Link at Northgate and stations nearer Seattle would have a “long wait”.

The ST3 extensions to Tacoma and Bellevue would presumably share the DSTT capacity, each with 4440-rph capacities.  The Sound Transit 3 Map claimed the extensions beyond Angel Lake would attract up to 95,000 daily riders.  That would take more than 21 hours each day. Again, current Central Link riders would have a long wait for available space.  The wait at Mercer Island to accommodate the  50,000 daily riders they’ve promised for East Link would “only take” 11 hours.

The bottom line is Sound Transit, under Rogoff’s leadership, used blatant mendacity regarding ST3 cost and benefits to get voter approval of the light rail spine funding.   However, anyone qualified to be on a “transportation system board” should have recognized that reality.  The problem is Dow Constantine and the Sound Transit Board have always been more interested in creating a light rail system than in increasing the public transit capacity needed to reduce congestion. Rogoff’s success in getting ST3 passed went a long way towards funding those light rail extensions that don't.  

Whatever “penalties” the board decides for Rogoff’s “management style” will do nothing to change the fact they’re committing to spend $54 billion over 25 years on a light rail spine that will do absolutely nothing to reduce congestion and whose operating costs will likely create a financial black hole for the area's future transportation funds.

That’s why the legislature should be requiring an audit and what the media should be warning the area about.  If past is prolog that’s not likely to happen and the entire area will pay.