Traffic Lab “Connivance?” with WSDOT I-405 HOT

The Dec. 25^th Seattle Times B1 Traffic Lab article “I-405 express toll lanes between Renton, Bellevue on way” does two things.  First it details WSDOT plans for I-405 HOT that are far more aimed at increasing revenue than in reducing congestion.  Second, that the Traffic Lab, whose purported objective is to “spotlight promising approaches to easing gridlock” either doesn’t recognize that reality or chooses to ignore it. 

The article details WSDOT plans to implement HOT on the existing HOV lane and a new lane between Bellevue and Renton “as part of changes that aim to improve traffic flow on what officials call Washington’s worse corridor for congestion”.  When completed the two HOT lanes there will be combined with a second HOT lane from Lynnwood to Bothell and existing two HOT lanes from Bothell to Bellevue; purportedly reducing congestion along the entire route. 

 Again, it doesn’t take much foresight to recognize the decision to implement two HOT lanes along the route will do far more to increase revenue than reduce congestion.   The WSDOT plans for HOT on two of the four lanes on most of the route are particularly absurd.   With one HOT lane WSDOT could set the fares to limit traffic volume to 10% of the vehicles.  Reducing the number of vehicles from 25% of the total to 10% would reduce congestion and commute times for those willing to pay the tolls. 

Meanwhile the percentage of vehicles on the three remaining lanes would increase from 25% to 30% increasing their congestion.  The whole rationale for HOT is based on the assumption giving commuters unable to carpool the option of paying whatever it takes to meet the 45mph limit justifies the increased congestion on GP lanes.  The WSDOT perverts the entire HOT process by choosing to implement HOT on two of the four lanes.  

Again assuming they set the rates to limit traffic to 10% of the total on both lanes, the traffic on each of the two GP lanes increases to 40% of the total, dramatically increasing congestion and the incentive to pay HOT fees.   The end result is the increased number of those willing to pay to use the two HOT lanes "requires" the WSDOT raise the tolls to limit flow to 10% of traffic for each of the lanes; frequently exceeding the $10 limit they are currently allowed on the Lynnwood to Bellevue portion.  

The article reports the WSDOT response “increasing the maximum toll rate would need to be a discussion between the state legislature and the Washington State Transportation Commission”.   Until they raise the rates the WSDOT HOT approach not only dramatically increases GP lane congestion, it's failed to achieve the 45 mph average required;  Despite the millions paid in tolls and the $484 million the WSDOT spent implementing HOT between Lynnwood and Bellevue. 

Anyone with a modicum of competence could have anticipated the likely failure of the WSDOT “experiment” of implementing two HOT lanes to meet 45 mph requirement.  Apparently not only did the Times Traffic Lab fail to do so, their Dec 25^th article indicates they agree with WSDOT implementing two HOT lanes along the entire Lynnwood to Renton route.

The way to achieve the 45 mph is to reduce the incentive to pay the tolls by maintaining three lanes for GP use and increasing the HOT fees to what is required on the fourth lane; potentially less the $10.00.   The WSDOT surely recognizes that reality but is more interested in the added revenue than in reducing congestion.  The Traffic Lab is either too incompetent to recognize the problem or is conniving with the WSDOT.

Neither speaks well.  

P.S.  The Seattle Times needs to urge the legislature use its oversight responsibility to require WSDOT end HOT along I-405 until they can implement it on only one lane between Bothell and Bellevue and on new lanes from Lynnwood to Bothell and from Bellevue to Renton.