For years I thought
Sound Transit’s promises for Prop 1 light rail extensions were the height of
“Fantasy Land”. Their claim East Link was the equivalent of a
“magic chariot” across I-90 Bridge with capacity for up to 10 lanes of freeway
has turned into a “pumpkin” consisting of one 4-car train every 8
minutes. Even more absurd they intend to require 20,000 eastside bus
riders transfer to and from this “pumpkin” every morning and afternoon for the
commute into and out of Seattle
The key to reducing
congestion on I-5 (or for any other corridor) is to convince more commuters to
use buses. A single bus can replace 60-80 single occupancy vehicles (and 35
2-person carpoolers) on that highway lane. An HOV lane can accommodate more than 5000 vehicles an
hour. It is sheer fantasy for ST
to claim spending billions extending light rail along I-5 to replace some of
the buses with trains will reduce congestion. What ST claimed, when their $20B Prop 1
extensions were approved in 2008 was “a gift to our grand children” will
do nothing to reduce congestion on I-5.
The Prop 1 problems
go way beyond the wasted construction costs. The extensions will increase track
lengths from 16 to 50 miles, likely tripling operating costs. The vast
majority of riders will undoubtedly be due to ST closing down far less
expensive and far more flexible competing bus routes. The added
operating costs will substantially increase the subsidy ST requires to cover
the shortfall between operating costs and fare-box revenue.
The only way to
make light rail financially viable is to limit Central Link to a “trunk line”
between a T/C at the UW and SeaTac. Rather than extending light rail to
Northgate the UW T/C could attract thousands of 520 commuters from both sides
of the lake. The added ridership would allow ST to fully utilize the
tunnel’s maximum capacity of one 4-car train every 4 minutes. Their
extension to 200th,, probably a done deal, will never attract sufficient
additional transit riders to justify construction and increased operating
costs. The Northgate extension can and should be dropped in favor of the
UW T/C.
Instead the
10/31/14 Seattle Times headline “Sound Transit floats $15B plan” indicates ST
has managed to soar to far greater heights of fantasy with even more
extensions. (Maybe it’s their Halloween “trick”, it's certainly no "treat"). They talk about
light rail from Tacoma to Everett, from Redmond and Issaquah to West Seattle
and all places in between. They claim nearly 40,000 daily riders despite
the fact the latest quarterly ridership gives 31,532 weekday riders for the
year. Both numbers are a fraction of the more than 100,000 that was
promised for 2010.
They glibly talk
about having 280,000 riders by 2030 despite the fact the Puget Sound Regional
Council concluded (2004 document “Central Puget Sound Regional High Capacity
Transit Corridor Assessment”) the Seattle tunnel limits light rail capacity to
8880 riders per hour in each direction.
What’s surprising
is there was a “pony in this pile of manure”; the proposal to spend $4B on a
light rail extension via a Duwamish River rail bridge and subway to West
Seattle. It wouldn’t effect vehicle traffic a welcome contrast with East
Link which spends a similar amount to confiscate a I-90 bridge center roadway
capable of more than 720 buses an hour with a light rail system having a
fraction of that capacity. Replacing East Link with West Seattle Link
would benefit both sides of the lake.
Like the Prop 1
extensions, none of the other $15 B extensions can possible attract sufficient
additional transit riders to justify the cost of extensions, let alone the
additional operating costs. The end result will be even further misery
for the area.
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