I wrote the following post because of a luncheon meeting
with Rep. Hunter. He expressed
concerns that Sound Transit issues were very complicated and he and his staff
needed to “run their own numbers”.
His response when I emailed him a copy after initially posting it was:
I
said it would take a while. I will get briefed on all of the Sound Transit
projections and cost models. I would be astounded if I come to any conclusions
before the end of August. It is very hard to set up meetings during the summer,
and I’ve been out of town.
I’ll
leave it to others whether they agree with his lack of concern on the issue.
Any competent East Link review would quickly conclude two numbers about the insanity of the project. They are 8.888 hours and $116.90 million.
The 8.888 hours is
the time required for East Link to accommodate the east side bus riders
Sound Transit plans to transfer to and from light rail trains for their daily commute into and out
of Seattle. It is based on ST’s latest East Link operating plan for one 4-car train every 8 minutes
during the peak commute. Each
74-seat light rail car can accommodate 150 riders. Thus simple mathematics gives the following peak capacity:
7.5 trains per hour X 4 cars per train X 150 riders per 74-seat
car
= 4500 riders per hour (RPH)
= 4500 riders per hour (RPH)
The 4500 RPH is
barely a third of the 12,000 RPH Sound Transit promised voters in their 2008
DEIS with claims East Link was like adding 10 lanes of freeway across Lake
Washington that would boost transit capacity by up to 60%.
The number of
commuters is based on ST projections for 50,000 daily commuters with 40,000
from terminating all the existing cross-lake bus routes. Since nearly all of the commuters on existing routes are
eastside residents, 20,000 morning and afternoon commuters will be forced to
transfer between buses and East Link trains at either the South Bellevue or
Mercer Island light rail stations.
Thus the total time needed to accommodate the morning and afternoon
commute is:
40,000 riders per
day/4500rider per hour = 8.888 hours per day
It’s clear
thousands of transit riders needing to go into Seattle during “normal” peak
commute times will be forced onto the outer roadway. Mercer Island commuters as well as those who take bus routes
that terminate there will have little access to light rail since all the train cars
will be full well before they arrive at the station.
Those forced onto
outer roadway will encounter another ST “exaggeration”: "Adding the fourth lane
for HOV traffic will allow the outer roadway to accommodate all cross-lake
vehicles". A 2004 FHWA study ST
participated in, showed the added lane wouldn’t have needed capacity if it
allowed non-transit +2 and +3 cars to displace 60-70 passenger buses. Thus closing the center roadway to
install light rail will undoubtedly increase congestion on the outer roadway. Obviously the thousands of cross-lake
transit riders forced onto the outer roadway because of inadequate capacity on the center roadway when East Link begins operation will add to the gridlock.
The bottom line is
ST has already spent close to a billion dollars over the last ten years on a
light rail system that will gridlock the I-90 Bridge. Instead of a cursory analysis that would have quickly shown
this reality they’ve spent the money on countless promotions and lucrative contracts to consultants designing light rail stations that won’t be needed for ten
years. If allowed to continue they
will close down the center roadway in 2017 to begin spending an additional $2
billion perpetuating this transportation debacle. (As well as devastating the
route into Bellevue and violating environmental law with light rail’s noise impact
on Mercer Slough Park)
What is almost
beyond comprehension, ST manages to combine the East Link capacity debacle with a $116.84 million annual light rail financial debacle. ST decision not to terminate
Central Link at the University Station means all the East Link trains will be
routed to Lynnwood. ST’s planned
East Link operation will result in 484 cars daily routed the 12.8 miles to
Lynnwood adding 25.6 miles to the route or 12,390 car miles per day. If weekend car miles are half that level, East Link will add 74,342 car miles per week or 3,865,805 car miles per
year.
ST 2014 budget
estimates light rail operation costs of $22.48 per car mile (excluding
depreciation) for a yearly total of $86,903,291 in direct operating costs. Assuming the sixty ~$5 million light rail cars
East Link will require can last an average of 10 years, depreciation will add another $30
million to the annual costs. Thus ST plans to route
East Link to Lynnwood will add $116,903,291 to operating costs for light rail service that will be totally superfluous to commuter needs. The nearly $117 million added operating cost is more than
twice ST’s total annual fare box revenue.
Even that number is a fraction of the costs involved if ST proceeds on their 2040
plan to extend light rail to Everett.
The 8.888 hours and
$116.9 million operating costs would stop any competent organization. Unfortunately ST hasn't been "competent" in the past and those that could force it to do so have instead gone along with
this debacle. My candidacy is
an attempt to stop it.
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