East Link's $285 Million Operating Deficit

The previous post explained that East Link will require 8.888 hours to accommodate the 40,000 transit riders Sound Transit intends to switch to trains once East Link begins operating in 2023 and routing it to Lynnwood will add $116.9 Million in annual operating costs.  This post explains why East Link operating costs from Redmond into Seattle will be such a financial “black hole”.

East Link operation will eventually include the 26 miles from Redmond to the University as well as the 12.8-mile Lynnwood extension or 38.8 miles for a 77.6 mile round trip.   ST East Link current operating plans call for 484 cars per day during the workweek for 37,558 light rail car miles per day.  Using ST 2014 budget estimate of  $22.48 per car mile gives a daily operating cost of $844,313 (excluding depreciation),

ST has projected East Link ridership of 50,000 daily with 40,000 coming from terminated eastside bus routes.  The Lynnwood portion of the East Link route will attract some riders at the expense of fewer riding a Central Link extension with far more capacity than needed.  Thus, those riding East Link there don’t reflect “added” light rail customers.

Dividing the daily operating cost ($844,313) by ST projected ridership (50,000) gives a cost per rider of $16.88 nearly three times the $5.90 cost per Central Link boarder for the 1^st quarter of 2014.  Even this number is “optimistic” since many of the 40,000 east side transit riders will be forced by lack of light rail capacity (see 7/19/14 post) to find other ways to reach Seattle during peak commute. 

Assuming $2.50 light rail tolls, each East Link boarder requires a $14.38 subsidy from ST.  (Compared to $3.40 subsidy for Central Link operation).  The 50,000 daily riders will cost ST $719,000 each day to pay for operating costs (without depreciation).  Even this number understates the subsidy since 40,000 of the 50,000 riders are transfers from buses and presumably won't have to pay again.  

The resulting $100,000 loss in daily fares increases the required subsidy to $819,000.  Assuming weekend car miles and ridership are half those levels results in a $4.91 Million cost per week or $255 Million annual subsidy to cover East Link direct operating costs. 

Assuming the 77.6-mile round trip takes 2 hours, sixty light rail cars will be needed for the 4-car trains every 8 minutes.  If the cars cost $5 Million and last 10 years, the annual depreciation will add $30 Million to the operating costs, increasing the total subsidy to $285 Million.

That truly is absurd even for Sound Transit for a cross-lake light rail transportation system that will also gridlock I-90.