Federal Way Debut “Benefits"

Sound Transit’s Fall/Winter Progress Report heralded the Federal Way Link Extension debut on Dec. 6.  A project that began construction in 2020, cost $2.5 billion, will provide trains every 8–15 minutes, 5 a.m. to midnight, seven days a week.  An estimated 18,000 to 23,000 riders are projected for the 8-mile extension At $30-per-mile car operating cost, the resulting 4-car, 8-mile extension's 122 round trips will cost $234,240 daily  

A previous post detailed why Sound Transit blundered when they extended light rail tracks to Federal Way.  That commuters in the area already had bus service with better access to routes into the city and more convenient stops in Seattle for their commute both into and out of the city.  That whatever access to light rail trains the extension provides doesn’t assure ridership. Thus, Federal Way Link ridership will “likely” be less than predicted.

The December 6^th debut will again demonstrate other problems with Sound Transit’s light rail extensions and 4-car trains.  They don’t have the capacity for the riders needed to reduce multilane roadway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off-peak. That the cost of stations providing access to light rail trains dwarfs the cost of bus stops.  That riders added will reduce access for current 1 Line riders, especially during peak commute.

The bottom line is the Federal Way December 6^th debut will, like the Lynnwood Link debut, demonstrate Sound Transit’s light rail problems.  That light rail tracks should never be extended beyond Federal Way, knowledge that benefits the entire Sound Transit service area.

Sound Transit’s Long Term Budget Solution

The previous post concluded  Sound Transit needed to explain why the Debt proceeds increased by $1.4B in the 2025 budget they approved in March, while the October 2026 budget “sources available” dropped $3B between 2034 and 2035 and beyond.   This post questions why  Sound Transit’s Long Range Financial Plan  funding  required for completing the ST3 extensions in the 2026 Proposed Budget and Financial plan was  more than what was in  the 2025 Adopted Budget and Financial Plan the Board approved in March.

The difference is reflected in the “Financial Policy” in the two budgets: 

Financial policy 2025 budget

The agency uses debt to bridge the gap between the timing of expenditures and the receipt of revenues. The current Financial Plan forecasts $27.9 billion in bonds will be issued 2017–2046. Additionally, the plan includes $4.3 billion in nine executed federal loans through the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act and Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing programs.

 

Financial policy  2026 budget

The agency uses debt to bridge the gap between the timing of expenditures and the receipt of revenues. With the additional costs included in this plan, the Financial Plan forecasts the need to issue $86.7 billion in debt during 2017–2046. By state law and internal policy, issuing this amount of debt would cause Sound Transit to fall below coverage and capacity requirements. Under current law and policies, Sound Transit can only afford to issue $31.0 billion of projected debt, which includes $4.3 billion in nine executed federal loans through the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act and Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing programs.

 

One would think the need to increase lending from $27.9B to $86.7B in a single year would be worthy of comment. Yet no questions were asked and the Executive Committee unanimously passed Motion No. M2025 53 recommending the 2026 Proposed Budget to the Board. Rather than propose potential cuts  they passed Motion No. M2025-54. It adopted a Sound Transit 2026 State Legislative Program authorizing  Sound Transit staff and consultants in Olympia to: Seek state funding to support delivery of Sound Transit projects and services.

 

Yet the 2026  budget “Debt capacity 2017—2046” shows “Fall 2026 Projected Balance on tax-backed debt” needed doesn exceed capacity until 2035. Sound Transits September 2025 System Expansion Monthly Status Report indicates the Ballard Link Tunnel and Everett Link extension are the only Link extensions needing funding in 2035 and beyond.  Thus there’s ample time to provide funds for those extensions if needed.

 

The more immediate cost issue is Sound Transit’s 2026 budget  includes increasing Staff positions from 1635 by 203 to 1838 and a budget increase from $960,549,000 to $1,134,684,000. That works out as an 18.1% cost increase, $617,347 per position in 2026, surely worthy of review. Especially since Megaproject manager, Terri Mestas, has recently added MATOC contracts with15 companies for up to 7 years for $500M for environmental service, $1B for Design assistance, and $1B for “Project Management/Construction Management Services. 

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit still doesn’t recognize the ST3 extensions they continue to fund won’t reduce congestion.  The 2024 Lynnwood Link and “likely” 2025 Federal Way ridership negate benefits of further extensions. . The areas served by a second tunnel under Seattle and bridge over Duwamish waterway already have better access to transit.  Sound Transit’s Long-Range Financial Plan should reflect those results. 

 

 

 

 

 

ST's Long-Range Financial Plan Problem?

The October Sound Transit Board meeting included Updates to the Long-Range Financial Plan.  That the $22B-$30B cost growth on the capital program projected in August had been revised to a “$27B increase in projected system expansion costs to build out full scope of ST3 plan as shared in August".

A subsequent Chart “Total Expenditure Forecast through 2046” described the problem as “$34.5B of cost savings and new funding needed”.  That what was “Affordable with projected resources available” had dropped from ~$8.6B in 2034 to $5.6B in 2035, a $3B drop in sources available.  

However, the Sound Transit 2025 Financial Plan & Adopted Budget included a chart “Summary of revenues, expenditures, and debt proceeds, 2017—2046”.  That “Debt proceeds” would increase from ~$5.3B in 2032 to ~$6.8B in 2034, and ~$6.7B in 2035, a ~$1.4B increase.   

Thus, the $1.4B increase in “Debt proceeds” available in the 2025 budget approved by the board in March was, in October, a $3B drop in “Sources available.” Clearly Sound Transit’s Long Range Financial Plan problem is not a $27B in increased costs. It’s the result of a drop in the sources available to fund the system between 2034 and 2035 and beyond. 

The bottom line is Sound Transit needs to explain why the Debt proceeds increased by $1.4B in the 2025 budget they approved in March, while in October the “sources available” dropped $3B between 2034 and 2035 and beyond.   

More Sound Transit Incompetence

 The previous post concluded that if the WSDOT insisted on imposing HOT fees on two I-405 HOV lanes, the motions in Sound Transit Board’s October 23^rd agenda for funding their I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project will do little to help those willing to pay the HOT fees and will increase the travel times for those who won’t. The  agenda, the latest result of a July 1, 2016 Prop 1, ST3 Map for a 11-station, 38-mile route between Lynnwood and Burien, Sound Transit costed at $812--$869M (2014$) and Sound Transit projected,  when completed in 2024,  would have 15,000—18,000 riders.

 

This post details the results of the board meeting.  As expected, they unanimously approved Motion No. M2025-50, spending up to $55.4 million to improve Renton Transit Center, M2025-51, up to $178.9 million on a Tukwila International Boulevard Station, and an unknown amount to WSDOT for construction of Stride Bus Rapid Transit Improvements.   

 

The original prediction for 2024 completion has slid until 2029 with added S1 Line parking on NE 44^th and near Renton T/C delayed until 2034.  Sound Transit is no longer making S1 and S2 ridership predictions. Commuters in the S1 area are currently served by ST Express Ridership Route 560. It makes multiple stops from Bellevue T/C, along I-405, Renton T/C and Rainier Ave, to SeaTac terminal and on SR-518 to Burien TC and beyond to Westwood Village.  It currently runs every 30 minutes from 5:07 a.m. to 7:07 p.m. and hourly until 10:37 p.m. The August ridership, 1369 average boardings per day.  

 

However, that schedule ends on March 28^th so it’s unclear what happens until Sound Transit implements S1 part of I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project in 2029 with plans to replace 560 Route.  Their current overview:

 

The Stride S1 Line will connect communities along I-405 and SR 518 from Bellevue to Burien. Like all Stride routes, buses on the S1 Line will run every 10 to 15 minutes, 17+ hours per day. The S1 Line will connect to Link light rail stations at the Bellevue Transit Center, above the Bellevue Downtown Station, and Tukwila International Boulevard Station. The S1 Line will provide seamless transfers to transit services provided by Sound Transit, Community Transit, and King County Metro. The Stride S1 and S2 fleets will consist of double-decker battery-electric buses.

 

The map shows 405 stops at new parking on NE 44th and Renton T/C and a new station on Tukwila International Blvd on 518, terminating S1 Line at Burien T/C.  Thus, commuters will lose access to the 560 Route stops along 405 and beyond Burien T/C on 518  to Westwood Village.  Again, 560 Route riders had a stop at SeaTac Terminal.  S1 riders will need to use the Tukwila station, walk across a 518 overpass  to get to and from a 1 Line train to terminal. 

 

The new  Stride double-decker battery electric buses will need to be “charged while  laying over at both ends of the route and overnight at the Base.”  It's not clear how buses every 10-15 minutes allows for charging and will Bellevue and Burien T/Cs  have facilities to do so.  It’s also not clear whether ridership will justify increasing the two 560 Route buses per hour to six with S1 Line.

 

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board’s approval of S1 Line and the I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project will result in commuters loosing access to transit. That Sound Transit will spend nearly $200 million to allow those who do have access to transfer to 1 Line trains to reach SeaTac.

 

It's another example  of an 18 member Sound Transit Board, each paid more than $200,000, to "direct" a 1600 member staff with a  $1 billion budget, continuing to spend hundreds of millions on projects that won’t reduce congestion.  All abetted by Seattle Times Traffic Lab.

I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit Project Problems

The Sound Transit Board October 23, 2025, agenda included the following Business Items:

B. Motion No. M2025-50: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a contract with Shimmick Construction Company, Inc. for construction services for the Stride Renton Transit Center, a component of the I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project, in the amount of $48,194,800 with a 15 percent contingency of $7,229,220 for a total authorized contract amount not to exceed $55,424,020, plus applicable taxes.

 

C. Motion No. M2025-51: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a construction agreement with the Washington State Department of Transportation for the design build delivery of the Tukwila International Boulevard Bus Rapid Transit project as part of the I-405 Bus Rapid Transit project in the amount of $168,740,000 with a six percent contingency of $10,124,400 fora total authorized agreement amount not to exceed $178,864,400.

 

D. Motion No. M2025-52: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a master agreement with the Washington State Department of Transportation for the construction of Stride Bus Rapid Transit Improvements by Sound Transit on State Highway Right of Way and authorizes issuance of task orders under the master agreement for specific projects.

 

The 3 motions didn’t include the normal recommendation for passage as the October 9th System Expansion Meeting was cancelled.  They are the  latest result of the July 1, 2016 Prop 1 ST3 Map for Stride I 405 BRT,  a 11-station, 38-mile route between Lynnwood and Burien was costed at $812--$869M (2014$) and projected to have 15,000—18,000 riders when completed in 2024. 

 

A May 8th System Expansion Committee video showed the Baseline Stride BRT Program had devolved into four projects costing $2,350 million to be completed in Q2 2029.  The 1st project was a Bus Base North costing $499.5M starting construction this summer, with completion Q4 2027.  Despite the Key Attributes including the following as one of the 10 “Not Included” projects: 

 

Operations and maintenance facility not included

 

 

The Sound Transit board approved spending $287 million on a triple-decker interchange on I-405 with no parking for access. Another concern was the following:

 

Relies on WSDOT to maintain adequate speed and reliability of I-405 express toll lane system

 

The problem being the WSDOT I-405 express toll lane system requires 2-person carpools transfer to GP lanes, or like SOV drivers, pay HOT fees to travel on one of two HOV lanes.   During peak commute the increased GP lane congestion will increase the number of those willing to pay the current fees, potentially slowing HOT funded HOV lanes. Especially between Bellevue and Burien, where the WSDOT 2-lane HOT lanes will leave only 2 GP lanes.  During off-peak commutes those willing to pay will result in wasted HOV lane capacity yet needless congestion on GP lanes.  

Both problems could be resolved if the WSDOT would increase HOT fees on a single HOV lane to whatever it took to limit traffic to assure target velocity and travel time.  The additional GP lane would reduce congestion and travel timed for those not willing to pay.

 

Instead, the bottom line is whatever money Sound Transit will spend on I-405 Stride Bus Rapid Transit project will do little to help those willing to pay the 

 HOT fees and increase the travel times for those who won’t.

 

Neither County Executive Candidate Gets ST Problem

The October 9^th Traffic Lab article detailing where King County executive candidates stood on light rail epitomizes the Sound Transit debacle.  Neither candidate recognizes Sound Transit’s real problem.  The ST3 light rail extensions voters approved with Prop 1 in 2016 won’t reduce the area’s congestion. 4-car trains don’t have the capacity to attract the riders needed to reduce multi lane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak. That providing commuters with access to light rail trains doesn’t assure they’ll ride them.

Sound Transit compounds the light-rail-train-capacity problem by using trains to replace bus routes, reducing transit capacity into Seattle. The more the extensions, the more the lost transit capacity, and the less access for current riders during peak hour commutes.  The longer the extensions, the greater the light rail trains operating costs off-peak. Thus, Sound Transit should have never extended light rail beyond University Stadium, across I-90 bridge, or beyond SeaTac.

Boardings from Sound Transit’s 2024 Starter Line and Lynnwood Link debuts demonstrated having access to light rail trains doesn’t assure ridership.  The 1400 stall Marymoor Village Parking garage had fewer than 100 cars.  The 9 Starter Line stations attracted 9500 boardings in July. However, since the boardings presumably reflected inbound and return trips, only 4750 riders, less than half the 11,000 daily passengers in Traffic Lab article, rode the Starter Line. 

The question remains as to how many commuters will be attracted by having access to 2 Line route across I-90 Bridge and beyond to Lynnwood. Those using the Starter Line for the commute into and out of downtown Bellevue won’t. Thus, how many Starter Line boardings will the cross-lake extension add?

Sound Transit will use the 2 Line extension to replace Express Bus 550 Route into and out of Seattle, forcing commuters to find access at Bellevue T/C or East Main Station. All those riding I-90 corridor cross-lake bus routes will be forced to transfer to 2 Line trains on Mercer Island. (Neither candidate  recognizes the once over-crowded parking garages in Issaquah, Eastgate, and South Bellevue are largely empty.) The lack of access for 550 Route riders and the need to transfer for those using the parking along with the hassle of finding access in DSTT for the return ride will likely dissuade many commuters from using transit.

Again, Sound Transit’s other problem is that providing commuters with access to light rail doesn’t assure riders. 80,000 residents living within a mile of Lynnwood stations resulted in only 8462 daily riders in July, a fraction of the 24,400-35,000 predicted. The transit options already available for Federal Way area commuters will "likely" limit 1 Line boardings for  Federal Way Link in December to far less than the 20,000 projected.

The bottom line is neither King County Executive Candidate recognizes Sound Transit problems.  That a staff of 1600 with a budget over $1billion is spending hundreds of millions on “outside” help to better implement ST3 extensions that won’t reduce congestion. 

The December debut of Federal Way extension and next year’s 2 Llne I-90 debut route will demonstrate both candidates lack transit system competence

Sound Transit’s Internal Reoganization Budget

The September  28th Sound Transit Board meeting video showed the board unanimously approving the following “Business Item”.

A. Resolution No. R2025-23: Amending the adopted 2025 budget to align with the internal reorganization by 1) decreasing the 2025 annual budget for the Administrative Project – Agency Admin Support by $66,621,831 from $147,117,488 to $80,495,657 and decreasing the authorized project allocation by $1,323,359,296 from $1,941,536,791 to $618,177,495; 2) Increasing the Transit Modes 2025 annual operating budget by $12,807,599 from $756,311,771to $769,119,370; 3) creating a new project for System Expansion Indirect Costs with a 2025 annual budget of $53,814,232 and an authorized project allocation of $1,323,359,296, all of which have a net neutral impact to the 2025 annual budget.–Recommended by the Finance and Audit Committee; requires a supermajority vote

The presentation to both the Finance and Audit Committee and Sound Transit Board included charts detailing  the resultant changes to the 2025 budget. (It seemed rather late to be reducing the 2025 annual operating budget by $12.8 million.)  Apparently it was the result of some recent  “internal reorganization” to improve transparency.  (The 2025 Adopted Budget & Financial Plan,  Appendix C: Departments and Staffing included 1583 positions and a $960,324,000 budget)   

The resolution’s result was  $1,323 million was taken from authorized project allocation and $67 million from agency administration support budgets to create a new indirect cost budget for System Expansion projects.  A chart showed the 2026 budget would "break out" Indirect costs for System Expansion  and Service Delivery Projects. 

Apparently neither  Sound Transit’s Finance and Audit Committee or Sound Transit Board recognized diverting $1,323 million form authorized projects to whatever entails ”indirect costs for system expansion and service delivery” doesn’t improve “transparancy”.   That  the plan for reducing $66.6 million  from Agency  Admin Support  assumes  former administrators  will be able to provide  Indirect System Expansion and Delivery Support”

The bottom line is Sound Transit approval of Resolution No. R2025-23 will result in diverting money previously allocated to authorized projects and require former administrators to provide indirect support for system expansion and service delivery.   We await the 2026 budget to detail what “indirect support for system expansion and delivery means”.