The October Sound Transit Board meeting included Updates to the Long-Range Financial Plan. That the $22B-$30B cost growth on the capital program projected in August had been revised to a “$27B increase in projected system expansion costs to build out full scope of ST3 plan as shared in August".
A subsequent Chart “Total Expenditure Forecast through 2046” described the problem as “$34.5B of cost savings and new funding needed”. That what was “Affordable with projected resources available” had dropped from ~$8.6B in 2034 to $5.6B in 2035, a $3B drop in sources available.
However, the Sound Transit 2025 Financial Plan & Adopted Budget included a chart “Summary of revenues, expenditures, and debt proceeds, 2017—2046”. That “Debt proceeds” would increase from ~$5.3B in 2032 to ~$6.8B in 2034, and ~$6.7B in 2035, a ~$1.4B increase.
Thus, the $1.4B increase in “Debt proceeds” available in the 2025 budget approved by the board in March was, in October, a $3B drop in “Sources available.” Clearly Sound Transit’s Long Range Financial Plan problem is not a $27B in increased costs. It’s the result of a drop in the sources available to fund the system between 2034 and 2035 and beyond.
The bottom line is Sound Transit needs to explain why the Debt proceeds increased by $1.4B in the 2025 budget they approved in March, while in October the “sources available” dropped $3B between 2034 and 2035 and beyond. It’s “unlikely” any reduction in system expansion costs will ameliorate the resulting Long-Range Financial Plan problem
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