System Expansion Committee Still Doesn’t “Get It”

A chart in the August 27th Sound Transit Board meeting summarized the cost problem with implementing ST3.

In total this represents a 20%-25% increase above the current Fall 2024 Long Range Financial Plan before any cost savings opportunities are applied

 

Cost growth on the capital program is approximately $14B-$20B more in 2025 dollars, or $22B-$30B more in year of expenditure dollars

 

Sound Transit CEO Dow Constantine's response was “everything is on the table,” and “he hopes a fresh look will improve future transit”. Board member Claudia Balducci suggested Sound Transit avoid building a second, multibillion-dollar downtown rail tunnel proposed in the ST3 plan.

The Sept 1st post on this  blog suggested,“What Should be on ST’s cost cutting table.” The July 8462 Lynnwood Link riders, a fraction of the 24,400-35,000 predicted, indicated extending light rail beyond Lynnwood should “be on the table”.  That  delaying extensions beyond Federal Way to Tacoma, should ”be on the table” until the extension’s December debut   That the December debut ridership should also put not spending more the $500 million on OMFS "on the table".

The  September 11th ST System Expansion Committee agenda indicated the committee’s  version of “what’s on the table” with the following items in the Monthly Status Report Update in “Business Items for final action” and “For recommendation to the Board:

Motion No. M2025-45 authorized nine contracts for up to 7 years and $27 million to provide Sound Transit “with appraisal services”.

Motion No. M2025-46 authorized 18 individual Multiple Award Task Order Contracts for up to 7 years and $1,000 million to provide Sound Transit “with design and engineering services”

Motion No. M2025-48 authorized spending up to $173.5  million for additional Everett Link Extension and Operations and Maintenance Facility North (OMFN) Phase 2 “for project development  services”

The Everett Link and OMFN also benefited from Resolution No. R2025-27 that increased to $317.2 million for “additional project development services”  and  increased 2025 budget to $52.1 million  

Those agenda items were followed  by the following Reports to the Committee:

West Seattle and Everett Link Extensions cost savings update

2025 Budget Amendment to Alight with Agency Reorganization

The September 11th video showed the discussion and subsequent approval of the motions, the resolution and committee’s satisfaction with cost savings update and 2025 Budget Amendment. Claudia Balducci, the normal chair  of the System Expansion Committee, wasn’t there and there was no discussion about her suggestion Sound Transit avoid building a second, multibillion-dollar downtown rail tunnel.. 

The entire discussion dealt with the need to spend more not less going forward. M2025-45 spending $27 million for outside appraisers to advise how much to offer for a property was due the 300 properties appraised in 2025 would  increase to more than 600 in 2027 and 2028,  and 2200 from 2026-2030.  

Why did Sound Transit need to authorize spending up to  7 years and $1 billion for outside design and engineering services.  They already had a nearly1500-position staff with a yearly budget of nearly $ 1 billion.  Millions more have been spent on Transit Advisory Groups and other consultants.  The  Enterprise Initiative recently concluded the board had “already made successful generation investments” so why the need for outside help?

 

Spending nearly $500 million more for Everett Link and Operations and Maintenance Facility North (OMFN) is especially dubious. The lack of Lynnwood Link rider should end plans for the extension. The OMFN was never included in the Prop 1 2016 ST3.    

 

The West Seattle and Everett Extension cost savings update detailed their current  cost drivers and potential ways to cut costs.  They neglected to include potential savings to Ballard Link and not funding 2nd tunnel.  The costs were in 2025 dollars with “Point of Expenditure” substantially more.

 

Even more critical the Sound Transit Board ignored the “cost of operation” identified earlier;  

 

Cost pressures related to improved service delivery could require approximately $5B more in year-of expenditure dollars

The bottom line is the ST System Expansion Committee continues to ignore the failure of light rail spine extensions to reduce congestion on I-5 into Seattle and that the Ballard and West Seattle extensions to Sodo won't justify the cost of creating those extensions.  That terminating the extensions wound end the need to appraise properties and fund the extensions and the cost of providing that service, a perpetual "black hole" for the area's transportation dollars.

Mayor Harrell Doesn't "Get It"

The Seattle Times Sept 2 Traffic Lab article "Major Harrell: Don’t backtrack on Ballard, West Seattle light rail” exemplifies his failure to understand the limits of light rail train's ability to attract riders.  That routing light rail trains through the “densest communities” doesn’t assure ridership.  Ridership requires providing commuters with access near where they live to routes to where they want to go. 

Sound Transit’s preferred Ballard Link option provides commuters access to Westlake in Seattle with stations at Ballard, Interbay, Smith Cove, Seattle Center, and Denny.  However, King County Metro already provides commuters access to  to multiple stops along 3rd Ave in Seattle with RapidRide service. 

 

RapidRide D Line serves the Ballard area with multiple stops along 15th Ave from Crown Hill Area to Elliot Ave to QueenAnne Ave, and Denny Way.  RapidRide E Line provides commuters access with multiple stops along Aurora  Ave from Aurora Village Transit Center past Green Lake to downtown.   RapidRide C serves the Lake Union area with routes along Westlake Ave.  All three provide 24-hour service with routes every 7 to 10 minutes during most of the day with headways extending to 60 minutes during early morning.  

 

A similar review of the service already available to potential West Seattle extension riders would conclude they already have access to  KCM routes with multiple stops along 3rd Ave in Seattle.  Even more egregious, riders the extension attracts to Sodo station will reduce capacity for riders from SeaTac.  (See 10/27/24 post for details)

The mayor proposed a special team of about 50 planners, engineers and inspectors, costing $10 million per year funded by Sound Transit, to begin the effort this fall.  Apparently not accepting the results from Sound Transit's 1500-position, billion dollar staff, the millions spent on Transit Advisory Groups and outside consultants, and more recently the Megaproject hire, Terri Mestas and  her Enterprise Initiative

The article  proposes the 50 planners will reduce costs with regulatory reform, reduce time for issuing permits, and review underground utilities for construction of light rail stations.   Yet, none of the reforms to reduce costs won’t change the fact that the cost of light rail stations dwarfs the cost of bus stops for both access to transit into Seattle and egress in Seattle. It’s also unlikely the 50 planners will be able to significantly reduce the costs of constructing light rail tracks and the years of disruption needed.  That the cost of providing light rail service dwarfs that of buses, especially during off peak hours.

The bottom line is Mayor Harrell doesn’t understand most potential Ballard and West Seattle Extension riders already have better access to transit into and out of Seattle.  That the costs of providing that transit service with buses are far less than what’s needed for light rail operation.  Thus, paying $ 10 million annually attempting to reduce the extension cost doesn’t change the fact that their cost and years of  disruption wasn’t needed.

What Should be on ST’s “Cost Cutting Table”

 The August 28th Seattle Times Traffic Lab front page article, “Sound Transit’s expansion plans balloon by up to $35 billion” raised concern  the 30-year financial plan could grow by $22 billion to $30 billion, from about $150.5 billion to up to $180 billion. That debt payments would continue into the 2060's  and beyond.  Yet, what voters approved in 2016 with Prop 1 was $54B for ST3 for 2017 to 2041 when ST3 taxes would presumably end. 

 The article includes Sound Transit CEO Dow Constantine's response that “everything is on the table,” and he hopes a fresh look will improve future transit. These new numbers only add to the pressure.  A chart in the August 27th Sound Transit Board meeting summarized the problem:

In total this represents a 20%-25% increase above the current Fall 2024 Long Range Financial Plan before any cost savings opportunities are applied

 

Cost growth on the capital program is approximately $14B-$20B more in 2025 dollars, or $22B-$30B more in year of expenditure dollars

 

Board member Claudia Balducci suggested Sound Transit avoid building a second, multibillion-dollar downtown rail tunnel proposed in the ST3 plan. However the board continued to insist on completing the light rail spine from Everett to Tacoma and light rail from Ballard and West Seattle to Sodo in ST3.

This post proposes other changes to ST3 that should be "on the table".  The ST3 extension from Northgate to Lynnwood demonstrated that access to light rail doesn’t assure ridership. The 80,000 residents living within a mile of Lynnwood stations resulted in 8462 riders in July, a fraction of the 24,400-35,000 predicted.  Thus, not extending light rail beyond Lynnwood should “be on the table”.

The Federal Way extension debut this December will demonstrate how many of those with access to the station there, and at the Kent/Des Moines and Star Lake stations will choose light rail rather than existing bus routes into Seattle.  Thus, delaying extensions beyond Federal Way to Tacoma, should ”be on the table” until that debut justifies ridership.

That debut should also put plans to spend more than $500 million on an Operation and Maintenance Facility South (OMFS) “on the table”.   Its 2031 completion date means trains in service in 2025 can be maintained elsewhere.  Thus, not building OMFS should be "on the table".

The board approved Mayor Bruce Harold's concern the agency should connect Ballard and West Seattle because that route will “deliver the greatest ridership and serve the densest communities.”   Yet that “ridership” already has  better access to bus routes into Seattle with more convenient stops in the city for egress and access for return.  The limited access from those living within walking distance of light rail stations or willing to transfer to trains into Westlake or Sodo should put aborting both extensions  “on the table”. 

Again, the proposed changes to what’s "on the table" would end the need for more funding for the Long Range Plan for Capital program in both 2025 dollars and "Year of Expenditure dollars". The proposed changes would also alleviate another Sound Transit cost in the Cost Pressures Chart.  

Cost pressures related to improved service delivery could require approximately $5B more in year-of expenditure dollars

All of Sound Transit’s light rail extensions require funding to cover operating costs.  It’s not clear where they'll get that money when ST3 ends.  Not routing light rail beyond Lynnwood or Federal Way, or from Alaska Junction and Ballard to Sodo would mitigate that problem.

The bottom line is Sound Transit needs to recognize their current version of “what’s on the table” will cost too much to implement and operate. It won’t have the ridership needed to reduce congestion and will leave the area with a transportation system perpetually in debt.

 

 

Why Sound Transit OMFS Funding?

The Thursday 14^th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee approved the following “Recommendation to the Board”.

B. Motion No. M2025-40: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a contract modification with Mott MacDonald, LLC to exercise a contract option for Phase 2 Design-Build Project Management services for the Operations and Maintenance Facility South project in an amount not to exceed $109,840,000, with an approximate 10 percent contingency of $11,160,000, totaling $121,000,000, for a new total authorized contract amount not to exceed $140,843,544, contingent upon adoption of Resolution No. R2025-19.

 

C. Resolution No. R2025-19: Amending the Adopted 2025 Budget to advance the Operations and Maintenance Facility South project by a) increasing the authorized project allocation by $121,000,000 from $403,729,393 to $524,729,393 and b) increasing the adopted 2025 annual project budget by $2,000,000 from $156,672,390 to $158,672,390.

 

D. Resolution No. R2025-20: Authorizing the chief executive officer to acquire certain real property interests, including acquisition by condemnation to the extent authorized by law, and to reimburse eligible relocation and reestablishment expenses incurred by affected owners and tenants as necessary for construction, operation and maintenance of the Operations and Maintenance Facility South project.

 

The presentation and discussion of the funding and property acquisitions  took nearly 40 minutes.  It began with charts showing the 2031 Forecast Opening in a OMFS Project Timeline Meets or Exceeds Target.  The rest of the time was spent detailing concern over funding  the various phases from preliminary design through final construction.  In the end all three were unanamously recommended for approval to the board.  

 

It exemplified a  long history of the System Expansion Committee failure to ask the “right” questions. Spending millions on outside advice as to how to better implement ST3 extensions rather than how to reduce the area's congestion.  

 

The OMFS, like many of the projects they've funded wasn’t included in the 2016 Prop 1 approved by voters.  They recently announced plans to debut the 8-mile Federal Way Link this fall. They presumably have plans to operate and maintain the trains on the route. Thus, why was the committee even funding an OMFS project?  Especially one with a 2031 in-service target date and costing more than $500 million.

 

A previous post concluded the extension to Federal Way was a blunder. Area commuters already had better access to transit into and out of Seattle on KCM  bus routes.  The “likely” result, the number of 1 Line trains  routed beyond SeaTac or Angle Lake to Federal Way will be limited to reduce clogging current riders during peak commute, better match ridership off peak, and minimize the 8-mile extensions added operating costs.

 

Spending more than $500 million on an OMFS to maintain those trains in 2031 just adds to that blunder.

 

 

Washington’s Self-Inflicted Energy Costs

The August 10th Seattle Times included an article on “Why Trump’s ‘One-Big Beautiful Bill’ likely to raise WA energy costs”.  Another example of their Climate Lab project that"explores the effects of climate change in the Pacific Northwest and beyond."

Previous posts have detailed the “limited” benefit of attempts to reduce Washington’s CO2 emissions.  They make up only 1.56% of the countries.  That the United States makes up 11.2% of the world's. Thus, any benefits from reducing emissions are limited to reducing the states 0.117% of the total.  

They don’t require allowances from those burning natural gas where they live or work or gas or diesel in their vehicles that make up nearly 70% of the state’s total CO2 “pollution". Thus, reducing Washington’s CO2 emissions will have little effect on climate.

Here in Washington state, energy experts and policy wonks are coming to understand Trump’s plan is going to mean higher electric bills.  The tax plan will eliminate single-family tax credits and hamstring the very wind, solar and battery projects Washington state is scrambling to build.  The money lost will soar into the billions, according to some estimates.

Precisely when your bills will rise and by how much remain somewhat unclear. But the tax plan will eliminate single-family tax credits, hand out billions to fossil fuel companies and hamstring the very wind, solar and battery projects Washington state is scrambling to build.

The article claims money lost, according to some estimates, will soar into the billions. Ratepayers throughout Washington will be forced to absorb higher electrical bills as the cost to build new wind, solar and battery projects increase by perhaps 30% or more.   Those who installed rooftop solar panels, heat pumps or similar devices were eligible for a tax credit worth 30% of their cost, but that offering will end by Dec. 31. The bill also eliminates a $7,500 consumer rebate for some electric vehicles.

The bottom line is Trump's bill does nothing to increase the cost of creating renewable energy. The Traffic Lab’s version of “money lost or cost” is money paid by someone else. If Washington wants to prevent Trump’s plan for increasing the state’s costs for renewable energy projects, they should recognize the miniscule effect they’ll have on CO2 emissions and global warming and abort them. 

Another Sound Transit Boondoggle

 The August 7th Executive Committee Meeting Agenda Included the following Business  Item:

.

For Recommendation to the Board

B. Motion No. M2025-36: Adopting principles and a process to help guide the Board on how to best achieve the planned outcomes of the Enterprise Initiative work, including an update to the current system plan (Sound Transit 3) and long-range finance plan.

 

The motion, the apparent result of a Board Retreat & Initiative Overview, was unanimously approved, included the following purpose:

 

Begin establishing shared principles and priorities that will inform decision making.

The 5 pages of the 24 page report,  detailing “35 Years of Sound Transit in 5 Eras”, would seem to suggest it was a little late to “begin establishing shared principles”.

 

Sound Transit has a staff that in 2025 included1572 position and $957 million in funding.  For years they’ve spent millions on Transit Advisory Groups and outside consultants.  They spent $600,000 hiring a Megaproject Manager who recently persuaded the board to spend up to $500 million on a MOTAC agreement over 7 years on some 15 outside consultants.  Again, all to better the process for creating the light rail spine.

 

The Enterprise Initiative concluded with the following Key Takeaway:

 

We have already made successful generational investments, and our voter-approved system is approximately 50% complete today.

 

The Executive Council meeting justified that conclusion with a chart showing 1 Line Weekday Ridership per Station with Northgate and Lynnwood extensions had increased to 5000 daily. However, the June Ridership Report for the 6 stations along I-5 totaled 15,954, 2660 per station.  A fraction of the up to 70,000 Sound Transit had projected for  Northgate and Lynnwood 1 Line ridership. 

 

Riders added by the Federal Way extension later this year and the 2 Line route across I-90 bridge next year won’t justify the cost of implementing the light rail spine route from Lynnwood to Redmond.  Sound Transit can’t ensure returning 1 Line and 2 Line trains will provide the 3 minutes of headway promised at the International District Station.  That neither Ballard nor West Seattle light rail routes to Sodo will attract sufficient riders to switch to light rail for the commute into Seattle to justify the more than $20 billion cost and 15 year disruption. 

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit’s “successful generation investments” on current I Line extensions have failed to meet ridership expectations.  The ridership from 1 Line route to Federal Way this fall and the 2 Line from Redmond next year will “likely” replicate those results debunking the need for further extensions.  Those extensions will presumably add to current “power sensitivity" operating delays.

 

Thus, spending whatever it takes Sound Transit to implement Enterprise Initiative to “better create their product” won’t improve light rail's ability to reduce congestion.

 

 

The WSDOT’s Years of Pain” on I-5 Begins

A previous post detailed the “Years of Pain” resulting from WSDOT plans for resurfacing the Ship Canal Bridge that closed the southbound I-5 HOV lanes. That the “Pain” could be mitigated if Community Transit (CT) and King County Metro (KCM) re-implemented previous routes on I-5 with increased frequency if needed during time spent resurfacing the bridge.

 It didn’t take long tor the “Pain”.to begin.   The WSDOT July 29th 8:15 am travel time for the 26.72 miles from Everett to Seattle increased from 76 minute average to 91 minutes. That travel time for the 15.22 miles from Lynnwood to Seattle increased from 55-minute average to 82 minutes.

 

However, for years, the WSDOT’s concern has been more about increasing revenue than reducing travel time.  For example the July 29th 8:15 am. travel time for the 26,86-mile Everett to Bellevue average and  current time was 63 minutes.  The 16.73 miles from Lynnwood to Bellevue took 75 minutes. Those able to carpool or pay HOT fees to use HOV lanes, did so in 46 minutes.  The 9.68-mile Bothell-to-Bellevue section taking 29 minutes was reduced to 15 minutes on HOV lanes.

 

The south end average travel times for 21.85-miles from Federal Way to Seattle was 77 minutes, those using HOV at the time, 47 minutes.  The 24.12 miles from Federal Way to Bellevue 83 minute average took 52 minutes on HOV lanes.  The 10.92 mile Renton to Bellevue portion average 51 minutes was reduced to 27 minutes for HOV lanes.  

 

Again, the previous posts opined travel times could be reduced if more commuters had access to public transit yet neither CT or KCM had provided more routes.  A recent midday return with my wife from Lynnwood through Bothell to the Eastgate area benefited from being able to use one of the two HOT I-405 lanes from Bothell.  Yet no public transit buses were noticed in either direction.  

 

The bottom line is the area’s congestion continues with the WSDOT insisting on HOT fees on 2 lanes instead of one, CT and KCM not increasing transit routes, and Sound Transit using light rail trains to replace bus routes into Seattle.  

 

The resulting “pain” has just begun.