What Should be on ST’s “Cost Cutting Table”

 The August 28th Seattle Times Traffic Lab front page article, “Sound Transit’s expansion plans balloon by up to $35 billion” raised concern  the 30-yeqr financial plan could grow by $22 billion to $30 billion , from about $150.5 billion to up to $180 billion. That debt payments would continue into the 2060s  and beyond.  Yet, what voters approved  in 2016 with Prop 1 was $54B for ST3 for 2017 to 2041 when ST3 taxes would presumably end. 

 The article includes Sound Transit CEO Dow Constantine's response  that “everything is on the table,” and he hopes a fresh look will improve future transit. These new numbers only add to the pressure.  A chart in the August 27th Sound Transit Board meeting summarized the problem:

In total this represents a 20%-25% increase above the current Fall 2024 Long Range Financial Plan before any cost savings opportunities are applied

 

Cost growth on the capital program is approximately $14B-$20B more in 2025 dollars, or $22B-$30B more in year of expenditure dollars

 

Board member Claudia Balducci suggested Sound Transit avoid building a second, multibillion-dollar downtown rail tunnel proposed in the ST3 plan. However the board continued to insist on completing the light rail spine from Everett to Tacoma and light rail from Ballard and West Seattle to Sodo in  ST3.

This post proposes other changes to ST3 that should be on the table.  The ST3 extension from Northgate to Lynnwood demonstrated that access to light rail doesn’t assure ridership. The 80,000 residents living within a mile of Lynnwood stations resulted in 8462 riders , a fraction of the 24,400-35,000 predicted.  Thus, not extending light rail beyond Lynnwood should “be on the table”.

The Federal Way extension debut this December will demonstrate how many of those with access to the Kent/Desmoins and Star Lake stations will choose light rail rather than existing bus routes into Seattle.  Thus, delaying extensions beyond Federal Way to Tacoma, should ”be on the table” until that debut.

That debut should also put plans to spend more than $500 million on an Operation and Maintenance Facility South (OMFS) “on the table”.   Its 2031 completion date means trains in service in 2025 can be maintained elsewhere.  Thus, not building OMFS should be on the table.

The board approved Mayor Bruce Harold's concern the agency should connect Ballard and West Seattle because that route will “deliver the greatest ridership and serve the densest communities.”   Yet that “ridership” already has  better access to bus routes into Seattle with more convenient stops into the city for egress and access for return.  The limited access from those living within walking distance of light rail stations or willing to transfer to trains into Westlake or Sodo should put aborting both extensions  “on the table”. 

The proposed changes to what’s "on the table" would end the need for more funding for the Long Range Plan for Capital program in both 2025 dollars and year of expenditure dollars. The proposed changes would also allevate another Sound Transit cost  in the Cost Pressures Chart.  

Cost pressures related to improved service delivery could require approximately $5B more in year-of expenditure dollars

All of Sound Transit’s light rail extensions require funding to cover operating costs.  It’s not clear where they will get that money when ST3 ends.  Not routing light rail beyond Lynnwood or Federal Way, or from Alaska Junction and Ballard to Sodo would mitigate that problem.