Traffic Lab Still Doesn’t “Get It”

The previous 2 posts detailed the Seattle Times Climate Lab didn’t "get it" that the allowances imposed because of I-2117 rejection won’t be imposed on more than half the pollution from those burning fuel in their vehicles or natural gas in their homes.  This post opines the paper’s Traffic Lab project that “comments about how money is spent on transportation” doesn’t “get it" regarding Sound Transit’s spending on the “largest transit system expansion in the country”.

It continues more than a decade of the paper not including auditing Sound Transit as one of their top-ten legislative actions.  A competent audit would “likely” conclude 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak. That King County Metro, Snohomish Community and Pierce County Transit already provide bus transit to commuters that could have been increased to meet future needs.  

Thus, light rail should not have been extended beyond UW station, across I-90 Bridge or beyond SeaTac airport.  Yet Sound Transit still plans to use 4-car light rail trains to replace bus routes into Seattle, reducing transit capacity into the city, and nothing to reduce roadway congestion. The more the extensions the more the lost transit capacity.

In 2021 the Traffic Lab abided Sound Transit’s decision to no longer release a  Quarterly Service Delivery Performance Report.  It had provided comparisons of transit system operations, costs and ridership during 2021/Q1 with Sound Transit budget predictions for the quarter. This year they abided Sound Transit decision to no longer release the  monthly Agency Progress Report.  Ending nearly 10 years of typically 180 pages summarizing projects and major contracts status, risks and perfoarmance for capital projects. They continue to abide Sound Transit Board members, each getting some $200,000 in compensation, who are more intererested in transit oriented development and affordable housing than in reducing the areas congestion.

This year they’ve haven’t recognized that the Starter Line and Lynnwood Link debut's ridership have debunked Sound Transit’s apparent “Field of Dreams” premise, “if we build light rail, riders will come.”  The areas the Ballard-to-SODO and West Seattle Links will serve already have better access to transit into and out of downtown Seattle than what would be available with light rail. 

Thus, neither area needs light rail for transit, avoiding the need to spend more than $12 billion on a 2^nd tunnel under Seattle and more than $6 billion on a 2^nd Duwamish Waterway bridge for light rail tracks from Alaska Junction to SODO.  That terminating Lined 2 at existing CID rather than extending it to Lynnwood also appeases those opposing current 2^nd tunnel route. 

The latest example of the Traffic Lab not “getting it” about how money is spent, it hasn't responded to the Sound Transit Board's 11/21/24 approving the 2025 Proposed Budget & Financial Plan. The budget claims “Ridership estimates are updated regularly with new assumptions including in-service dates for new extensions.  Yet the 2025 budget predicts the Line 1 extension to Federal Way and the Line 2 to Redmond and to Lynnwood will increase Link ridership from current ~34 million to ~58 million in 2026 is the same as the 2024 budget despite Starter Line and Lynnwood ridership a fraction of 2024 predictions

The 2025 budgets financial data should raise additional concerns. It includes some “dubious” claims for getting nearly $800 million each year in Federal Grants for several years in the 2030s.  (Especially since the recent election results)  The budget for 2025 shows Revenues and other financing sources” total $4.4 billion, with $1.5 billion from additional TIFIA loans. (yet only 1% coming from fares) Yet the 2025 budget spending for the year “only” totals $3.2 billion, so why the need for the $1.5 billion loan.

The 2025 budget also includes a new financial feature detailing paying off debts. Appendix I: Debt Obligations” detail the “Amount outstanding as of Dec 31, 2023” loans for paying off existing loans issued from 2009, 2015, and 2021 extend as far as to 2050.  That TIFIA and RRIF loans to "finance a portion of their eligible project costs" includes loans obtained on 5/28/24 for East Link, Northgate, the Operations Facility East, and Lynnwood Link: that were all thought to be essentially paid for.  Yet payments don’t begin until 12/31/2025 and continue until 2061:20 years after ST3 taxes approved in 2016 for 2017 to 2041.

The bottom line is the lack of Traffic Lab response to the Sound Transit approval of the 2025 Proposed Budget and Financial plan continues their decade of “not getting” the failures.