The previous post opined the video of the March 10 Sound Transit System Expansion Committee demonstrated their intent to continue funding “voter approved” light rail extensions. That they did so despite the Northgate Link debut that “likely” demonstrated they don’t have the capacity to reduce multilane freeway congestion, reduce access for Central Link commuters, and have operating costs that dwarf farebox revenue. This post details how videos of March 16th and 17th meetings show why Sound Transit should release the Service Delivery Performance Report Q4 2021.
The March 16th Board Fares Workshop” meeting included a chart “Board-adopted farebox recovery targets” showing light rail farebox recovery had dropped from Sound Transit’s 40% “target” in 2017 to 10% in 2021, less than the 15.1% in their 2021 budget. The revenue part of the problem was reported in the March 17th video with chart showing, “Passenger fare revenues $(26) M or (48%) below budget”. They attributed the lower passenger fare revenue to reduced ridership from COVID and more fare avoidance. However, the COVID effect was presumably accounted for with Sound Transit’s 2021 budget, 48,600 average weekday ridership, far less than pre-COVID 79,617 in 2019.
Thus, the question remained was whether the lower revenues were due to more riders unwilling to pay than predicted or was it because there were fewer riders than budgeted. If $26M was lost because more riders refused to pay fares, it’s not a big deal in a $3 billion budget. However, if it was because ridership was 48% below budget, that’s a huge deal.
Sound Transit’s 2021 budget had predicted 48,600 average Link weekday riders. Sound Transit’s Northgate Link website had claimed the extension would add 41,000 to 49,000 weekday riders. The Seattle Times had heralded the Link’s debut as “Transit Transformed” with the 3 stations adding 42,000 to 49,000 riders. Thus, year-end and especially 4th quarter ridership below 48,600 riders raises questions about light rail benefits. They need to release Service Performance Report Q4/2021 showing ridership for the 3 Northgate Link stations to assess light rail ridership benefits.
The other issue with the low farebox recovery was higher than budgeted operating cost. The March 16th video included a warning, “Increased operating costs carry implications for overall program affordability.” However, the March 17th video included a chart showing 2021 Link operating costs were 7% below budget, no reason for year's lower farebox recovery.
The March 16th concern over costs seemed to reflect a belated recognition of light rail’s high operating cost. The 2021 budgets those as $30.17 cost/per revenue vehicle mile. Every mile of extension adds 2 miles of $120.68 costs per mile for a 4-car round trip. The 4.2-mile Northgate Link extension added $1013.72 per trip, or $126,714 for their 125-trips a day schedule. Sound Transit’s 2021 budget operating costs presumably reflected that added 4th quarter cost.
The Service Performance Report Q4/2021 provides costs per boarder for the entire route from Northgate to Angel Lake. The riders added by the 3 stations Northgate Link can be used to determine the costs for each of those riders. Do the benefits justify the cost? The costs per Northgate Link rider should raise concerns for all costs per rider for all the “voter approved” extensions.
For example, a March 10th video showed Sound Transit’s System Expansion Committee increasing funding for the Lynnwood extension. The 8.5-mile extension would add $256,445 daily for 125 trips of 4-car light trains from Northgate to Lynnwood and back. An especially onerous charge since most transit riders previously rode Northgate Link, and typical of all the “voter approved” extensions. Especially for those replacing far less expensive bus routes.
The bottom line is the low Farebox Recovery necessitates Sound Transit release their quarterly Service Performance Report Q4 2021. Was it more fare avoidance or lower than predicted ridership. The latter is critical since Sound Transit has apparently “belatedly” recognized high light rail operating costs. A warning for all the "voter approved" extensions.
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