Sound Transit's Farebox Recovery Problem

The Sound Transit Board waited until Sept 23rd to release the "Farebox Recovery Report 2020".  it included the following regarding policy and pandemic affects on farebox recovery requirements:

Sound Transit policy establishes that farebox revenue must recover a specified percentage of operation costs.  The percentage of farebox revenue to operating costs is called the farebox recovery ratio.  Sound Transit calculates farebox recovery ratios by dividing fare revenues by direct and indirect service operating costs.  Sound Transit policy was most recently stated in ST Board Resolution No. R2014-27, which establishes minimum farebox recovery ratio thresholds as follows:

Link: 40%   ST Express: 20%  Sounder: 23%

The Link's higher recovery ratio threshold is an attempt to account for the fact that operating costs of light rail cars are more than twice those of express buses. The 2020 report continues with the following regarding farebox recovery results:

In 2020, all modes saw a drop in farebox recovery rates due to reduced ridership as a result of the pandemic and economic conditions.

ST Express bus farebox revenue was 10% of operating costs in 2020: lower than the 20% minimum policy threshold .

Sounder farebox revenue was 11% of operating costs in 2020; lower than the 23% minimum policy threshold.

Link farebox revenue was 8% of operating costs in 2020; lower than the 40% minimum threshold.

Clearly all three transit modes in 2020 failed to meet farebox recovery targets.  Sound Transit previously provided farebox recovery results with "Service Delivery Quarterly Performance Reports" detailing boardings and cost per boarding, and "Quarterly Financial Performance Reports" regarding farebox revenue and operating costs. However, the "Q1 2021 Service Delivery Quarterly Performance Report" is the last they've released and they have yet to release a "Quarterly Financial Performance Report" in 2021.

Whatever those results the Northgate Link debut will surely add to the farebox  revenue recovery shortfall.  Sound Transit's March "2021 Financial Plan and Adopted Budget" reported Link light rail operating costs as $30.17 per Revenue Vehicle Mile or $253.43 per car for the 8.4 miles added by the round trip from UW to Northgate and back.

The August 12th Transit Development Plan included a scheduled frequency requiring 84 round trips costing $21,288 per day per car, or $85,152 for the 4-car trains.  Thus it's only a question of when Sound Transit releases the riders and farebox revenue added daily at the three stations to provide costs per rider and farebox revenue shortfall.

The Sound Transit Board should require the October 28th meeting agenda include the Northgate Link's initial ridership, cost per rider, and  farebox recovery ratio.  Not only as an early precursor of higher costs and increasing revenue shortfall with future light rail spine debuts, but to justify expediting a West Seattle-to-Ballard Link that avoids them.