ST Board Mtg. Agenda ignores Northgate Link Debut Results

Prior to the October 2nd Northgate Link debut Seattle Times Traffic Lab articles heralded its benefits, typifying the paper's more than decade long cheerleading of Prop 1 extensions.  The September 26th article, "Transit Transformation" described it as "Light rail ready to open at Northgate, changing more than just commutes".  It included the following regarding Northgate Link benefits:

Sound Transit has estimated the new Northgate, Roosevelt, and U-District stations that open Saturday will attract a combined 42,000 to 49.000 riders per day.

The article reported benefits included "neighborhoods are growing" with "additional housing units near stations at Northgate, Roosevelt, and UW".  The paper reported thousands participated in opening-day ceremonies.

The Sound Transit Board would seemingly welcome the chance to herald the results of nearly 4 weeks of this "Transit Transformation" in their October 28th meeting.  Tell the public how many of the 42,000 to 49,000 projected daily riders took advantage of riding the link.  How much those benefits cost per rider, the fares they paid, and whatever costs those fares failed to pay.

Yet the Agenda for the October 28th Sound Transit Board Meeting includes the normal "Consent Agenda" to approve 5 items, 6 "Business Items", one of which established a "CEO Selection Committee for the next CEO", and a "Reports to the Board" limited to "Review of proposed 2022 Budget & Financial Plan Projections"

There was nothing in the "Report to the Board" agenda concerning initial Northgate Link ridership, costs, or fares.  Any competent transit board would surely require the results of the Northgate Link debut to review 2022 budget and financial plan dealing with another year and $2-3 billion more in spending.  

The fact they didn't says they're not.  The fact the Seattle Times Traffic Lab apparently abets their decision says they're not alone.

Constantine's Incompetent Sound Transit Board

The Seattle Times October 14th front page article, "Constantine, Nguyen snipe over competency, urgency" and their subsequent Constantine recommendation  prompted this post.  The article credits Constantine, "With helping make possible Sound Transit's continued expansion", clearly failing to recognize the agency's decade of incompetence under his leadership.  The incompetence was the reason I was one of the "non-serious" county executive candidates in 2017 and earlier this year.  Not to win, but to use the Voters' Pamphlet to inform residents about Constantine's failure to select competent directors to the Sound Transit Board.

For example, the Board referred to Prop 1 approval in 2008 as "a gift to our grand children."  They either failed to recognize the need for transit capacity or that extensions routed through the DSTT lacked the needed capacity.  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT stations limited light rail trains to four cars and that safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between train.

The resultant 60 cars per hour and 148 riders per car provide 8880 rider-per-hour capacity in each direction, far less than what's needed to reduce congestion.  Routing half the trains across I-90 Bridge halves that capacity to Bellevue and SeaTac.  The billions and years spent extending light rail beyond UW,  SeaTac, and Bellevue will do nothing to increase that capacity.  Yet Constantine and his board continue to approve budgets projecting annual Link ridership will increase from 22 million in 2017 to 162 million in 2041.

Since Prop 1 passed Constantine and the Board have refused to add bus routes to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  A hundred high capacity buses an hour could've easily accommodated 10,000 passengers an hour; and more could be added. (900 buses an hour use a bus lane onto Manhattan Island.)

The bus routes could have been facilitated using a lane limited to buses or vehicles willing to pay tolls.  Limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour (vph) assures 45 mph velocities.  The tolls could be raised to limit traffic to 2000 vph with whatever additional bus routes are needed.  The 10,000 transit riders would've reduced congestion on remaining I-5 lanes and eliminated 10,000 vehicles an hour on city streets.  And more routes could have been added.

Constantine and his board not only failed to understand the benefits of increased bus capacity, they failed to recognize commuters need access to any transit mode.  All of the P&R lots with access to bus routes or future light rail stations have been full for years.  Yet Constantine and his Board have spent a decade refusing to add parking with no plans for significant additions until at least 2041. 

Instead, Sound Transit is generating ridership by choosing to use the Link to replace bus routes into Seattle.  While using light rail to replace bus routes may provide those with access more reliable commute times, doing so will do nothing to reduce travel times for those without access.  The benefits of reducing bus routes into Seattle pale in comparison to the benefits of eliminating 10,000 vehicles an hour into the city with an additional 100 bus routes.  Again, and more buses could be added.

The bottom line is Dow Constantine's selection of Sound Transit Board members have failed to demonstrate a modicum if public transit competence.  The Seattle Times crediting him, "With helping make possible Sound Transit's continued expansion,"  demonstrates the paper's decade-long failure to recognize the incompetence. 

Sound Transit's Farebox Recovery Problem

The Sound Transit Board waited until Sept 23rd to release the "Farebox Recovery Report 2020".  it included the following regarding policy and pandemic affects on farebox recovery requirements:

Sound Transit policy establishes that farebox revenue must recover a specified percentage of operation costs.  The percentage of farebox revenue to operating costs is called the farebox recovery ratio.  Sound Transit calculates farebox recovery ratios by dividing fare revenues by direct and indirect service operating costs.  Sound Transit policy was most recently stated in ST Board Resolution No. R2014-27, which establishes minimum farebox recovery ratio thresholds as follows:

Link: 40%   ST Express: 20%  Sounder: 23%

The Link's higher recovery ratio threshold is an attempt to account for the fact that operating costs of light rail cars are more than twice those of express buses. The 2020 report continues with the following regarding farebox recovery results:

In 2020, all modes saw a drop in farebox recovery rates due to reduced ridership as a result of the pandemic and economic conditions.

ST Express bus farebox revenue was 10% of operating costs in 2020: lower than the 20% minimum policy threshold .

Sounder farebox revenue was 11% of operating costs in 2020; lower than the 23% minimum policy threshold.

Link farebox revenue was 8% of operating costs in 2020; lower than the 40% minimum threshold.

Clearly all three transit modes in 2020 failed to meet farebox recovery targets.  Sound Transit previously provided farebox recovery results with "Service Delivery Quarterly Performance Reports" detailing boardings and cost per boarding, and "Quarterly Financial Performance Reports" regarding farebox revenue and operating costs. However, the "Q1 2021 Service Delivery Quarterly Performance Report" is the last they've released and they have yet to release a "Quarterly Financial Performance Report" in 2021.

Whatever those results the Northgate Link debut will surely add to the farebox  revenue recovery shortfall.  Sound Transit's March "2021 Financial Plan and Adopted Budget" reported Link light rail operating costs as $30.17 per Revenue Vehicle Mile or $253.43 per car for the 8.4 miles added by the round trip from UW to Northgate and back.

The August 12th Transit Development Plan included a scheduled frequency requiring 84 round trips costing $21,288 per day per car, or $85,152 for the 4-car trains.  Thus it's only a question of when Sound Transit releases the riders and farebox revenue added daily at the three stations to provide costs per rider and farebox revenue shortfall.

The Sound Transit Board should require the October 28th meeting agenda include the Northgate Link's initial ridership, cost per rider, and  farebox recovery ratio.  Not only as an early precursor of higher costs and increasing revenue shortfall with future light rail spine debuts, but to justify expediting a West Seattle-to-Ballard Link that avoids them.

Sound Transit Board Sould Also Be Replaced

The Sept 24th Seattle Times headline "Sound Transit board ousting CEO" is something a competent transit board would have done nearly three years ago.  A December 10th 2018 post responded to a Times request for, "Headlines readers would like to see in 2019" with,  "Sound Transit Board Fires CEO Peter Rogoff".  It concluded:

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board should fire Rogoff.  He not only fails to recognize the DSTT limitations on light rail capacity, he refuses to implement the transit capacity available with added bus service.  He also refused to add the parking needed for access to either transit mode.  That riders added by the light rail extensions will reduce or potentially end access for current riders.

The lack of capacity conclusion was based on a 2004 PSRC report, funded by the Board, that the DSTT limited Central Link capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction. Yet Rogoff's 2019 long-term budget claimed 162 million in 2041,  approximately 500,000 weekday riders

The failure to add bus transit conclusion was reflected in Rogoff's 2021 budget continuing the Board's decade long refusal to increase bus transit capacity until at least 2041.  Neither Rogoff nor the Board recognized the need to provide added parking for riders with access to light rail or buses for the commutes into and out of Seattle.

Instead the Board approved Rogoff's 2019 budget expanding the funding voters approved in 2016 for ST3 taxes from 2017-2041 for a $54B transit system expansion to $96B with $17B in debt when ST3 funding ended.  They demonstrated Rogoff approval by extending his contract for another three years with a hefty raise.

The Seattle Times article described his ouster with a photo caption:

Sound Transit CEO Peter Rogoff will be replaced in 2022 following more than six years of accomplishments with the agency

Calling his tenure "six years of accomplishments" raises questions as to why the Board terminated him.  The article cites a "consultant report issued in August found management problems, including flaws in how the agency studied its soaring real estate costs and staff not knowing when to expose bad news"

Yet the Sound Transit Board's Sept 23rd agenda authorized him to implement several items and made no mention of his "future status".  All of his recommendations to the Board had been unanimously approved. The Times article reported the decision was "just nine days before the region celebrates new light rails stations at Northgate, Roosevelt, and U District, expected to attract 45,000 or more daily passengers".

Board Chair Keel praised Rogoff with, "all but one of Sound Transit's seven major construction projects are on time and below budget".  Board member Claudia Balducci praised Rogoff for his "efforts to manage multiple projects across the region".  Member Roger Millar, the state transportation secretary, claimed "Mr Rogoff is going to be going out on a high note".  Yet all three chose not to renew his contract.

The Times claims "the CEO still must grapple with the $6.5 billion Ballard to West Seattle."  Yet abides Sound Transit "Spending from 2017-46 is estimated at $131 billion for present and future programs". Apparently the Board's expansion of the $54 billion transit system voters approved in 2016 to $131 billion for present and future programs didn't include the Ballard-to-West Seattle project.

The statement also reflects the Board and Seattle Times failure to recognize the voters approved the taxes not the projects, and from 2017-2041, not 2046.  The Board and Times also both ignore the ST3 plan voters approved was to provide taxes from 2017 to 2041 to fund a $54 billion transit system expansion.

The bottom line is a competent Sound Transit Board would not have renewed Rogoff's contract three years ago.  His 2019 budget's long-range claims for ridership were delusional, didn't add access to transit, and failed to recognize BRT benefits.  The Board renewed it then because they'd spent the years since Prop 1 approval doing exactly the same.  They'd already made a major blunder by extending Central Link from UW rather than a second tunnel that would have served those going to South Lake Union.

Since his renewal the Board has done nothing to add parking or bus transit.  Instead approved spending $6B competing the Northgate Link, extending light rail to Lynnwood and beyond, across I-90 to Overlake and beyond, and to Federal Way and beyond

The Northgate Link debut will be the first to demonstrate the results of Rogoff's "six years of accomplishments".  That the $1.9B extensions doesn't reduce I-5 congestion into Seattle.  That the number of those who chose to use light rail for their commutes into and out of Seattle is far short of the 45,000 daily projected.  That the "cost per boarding" is far higher and "fare box recovery" far lower than the $11.67 and 15.1% predicted in Sound Transit's 2021 Financial Plan and Projected Budget". A precursor for results from current extension plans.

A more competent Board would have recognized the likelihood of those results three years ago. They need to be replaced.