One of the reasons I filed as a candidate for King County Executive this year was it gave me the opportunity to expose problems with Sound Transit's long-range financial plans. Something that began with Sound Transit CEO Rogoff's "Long-Range Financial Plan" in their "2019 Financial Plan and Adopted Budget".
That budget prompted a November 4, 2018 post on this blog, "Sound Transit 2019 Budget Fantasy" with the following:
The 2017-2041 plan in Sound Transit's proposed 2019 Budget should be a "wake-up' call for those who believe Sound Transit's ST3 "Prop 1 and beyond" light rail extensions will reduce congestion on the area's roadways. It's just the latest indication Sound Transit CEO Rogoff's plan to spend $96 billion over the next 23 years continuing Dow Constantine's Sound Transit Board decade of refusing to recognize the reality of effective public transit. That what Rogoff calls their new mission statement , "We are connecting more people to more places," was instead sheer fantasy.
The 2019 budget's long-range financial plan to spend $96 billion resulted in "Tax-Backed Debt" increasing from $5.5 billion in 2017 to $17 billion in 2041. The 2019 budget estimate for 2041 included $1 billion in annual debt service payments and $2.4 billion in expenditures. Those payments were funded by estimated revenue in 2041 of $4.3 billion, with $3.7 billion from tax revenue, $480 million from fare revenue and $100 million from grants.
The 2019 budget "neglected" to provide any details as to how they intended to fund the debt or expenditures when ST3 tax revenue ended in 2042. The budget also ignored the problem of finding "lenders" for the $17 billion debt in 2041, when the taxes needed to "service the debt" ended in 2042.
Sound Transit's presentation of the Long-Range Financial Plan at last year's October 14th meeting with the Sound Transit Board's "Finance and Audit Committee" also ignored the issue. It concluded the COVID-19 pandemic and cost increases necessitated a "realignment" consisting of a 4-year delay to "make program affordable". Their criteria being the "Projected Amount of Outstanding Debt" needed should not exceed the "Debt Capacity" available. Again, Sound Transit ignored potential concerns with finding the "Debt Capacity" from those willing to provide the loans with ST3 tax revenue ending in 2042.
The October presentation concluded the 4-year delay allowed Sound Transit to delay increasing "Projected Amount of Outstanding Debt" until 2029. However, the pandemic response added to the potential "Lack of Debt Capacity" issue by increasing "Outstanding Debt" in 2041 to $20 billion.
The Long Range Financial Plan in Sound Transit's December 2020, "2021 Financial Plan and Adopted Budget" exacerbated the problem. Between the October presentation and the December budget the need for increased "Outstanding Debt" began five years sooner, in 2024, not 2029. Also the December budget "allowed" the need for increasing debt to exceed "debt capacity" from 2031 through 2040. What was "unaffordable" in October was instead "leaving a portion of expenditures unfunded". "Outstanding Debt" in 2041 increased from $20 billion in October to $25 billion in December budget. It's not clear what prompted the changes between the two budgets.
The bottom line is previous posts have detailed Sound Transit's decade-long failure to deal with the area's congestion. This post details their failure to recognize the problems with funding that debacle. CEO Rogoff plans to spend $98 billion by 2041 will result in $25 billion in "Tax Backed Debt" with no taxes to pay for it in 2042 when ST3 funding ends. Yet the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, the paper's project to "dig into the issues", continues to abet rather than critique them.
That's why I'm the "lesser known" candidate this year for King County Executive".
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