The previous post urged Seattle Times Traffic Lab "dig into" why a "Link Light Rail Program overview" chart in the Sound Transit "Agency Progress Report December 2020" showed the Northgate Link debut had been delayed from Sept 2021 to Sept 2022. Especially since the same document included a "Northgate Link Extension Project Cash Flow Projection" with the following: "the project cost is forecast to reach $1.74B by September 2021, by the time the project opens for revenue service".
The Sound Transit March 1st Gmail, "Now arriving at the Platform: Light rail expansion in all directions" added to the confusion with the following introduction:
Welcome to March 2021! Although we're not completely sure March 2020 ever ended.... As spring arrives and the days get longer, we continue to make progress on the Lynnwood, Federal Way and East Link Extensions-not to mention Northgate, which opens this fall!
Sound Transit went from a November 19th video recording plans to begin Northgate Link service in Sept 2021 to a December 2020 Progress Report delaying the debut for a year, to a March 1st Gmail with it "opens this fall". Rather than "digging into" the December 2020 delay the Times Traffic Lab has chosen to abet Sound Transit's February request for an additional $11.5 billion in funding.
Sound transit would seem to want to demonstrate its Northgate Link website description of the link "as a 2.4 billion, 4.2-mile, 3-station extension that will operate every 6 minutes during peak hours with projected ridership 41,000 to 49,000 by 2022". Whatever Sound Transit's reason the result will delay demonstrating whether the Prop 1 extensions will reduce congestion on I-5 and I-90.
Reducing congestion requires reducing the number of vehicles on a roadway. Studies have shown limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour provides 45 mph and maximizes lane vehicle capacity. Yet Sound Transit intends to use the Northgate Link to replace bus routes rather than reduce number of single occupancy vehicles or carpools. The delay extends Sound Transit's failure to recognize reducing the number of buses does little to reduce congestion.
The Northgate Link debut will also demonstrate whether the Prop 1 extensions will reduce congestion on the freeways into Seattle. Whether light rail routed through the DSTT will have the capacity to accommodate the number of commuters needed to reduce I-5 congestion into Seattle. Whether using light rail's limited capacity to replace bus routes into the city reduces I-5 congestion. Does light rail's limited capacity result in riders added by the extension limiting access for University Link riders?
At this point very little can be done about the Northgate Link. However its debut will expose the potential folly of spending additional billions on Prop 1 extensions. The extensions to Lynnwood do nothing to increase light rail capacity. If replacing bus routes from Northgate doesn't reduce congestion it won't reduce I-5 congestion from Lynnwood. Riders added by Lynnwood extension will further reduce University Link access.
It should not require a demonstration to conclude light rail extensions beyond Angel Lake and across I-90 bridge, each limited to half the DSTT capacity, won't reduce congestion. However, for doubters, if Northgate Link doesn't reduce congestion from Northgate surely half the DSTT capacity won't reduce it from Bellevue or Federal Way.
Again very little can be done about the lack of East Link capacity to Bellevue. The Northgate debut will demonstrate whether Sound Transit's "bus intercept" agreement with Mercer Island to use East Link to replace I-90 bus routes will reduce I-90 congestion.
Sound Transit should have never extended light rail with half DSTT capacity beyond SeaTac. Their December 20 Progress Report shows they've already "incurred" $663 million of the $2,451 estimated final Federal Way link cost. The 2021 budget included $429 million for the link. The Northgate debut will confirm, what should have been obvious, the extension won't reduce congestion and any riders added will reduce access to Central Link commuters who will've lost half their capacity to East Link.
The bottom line is Sound Transit's decision to extend light rail to Northgate and then attempt to delay its debut "suggests" they have concerns it will demonstrate Prop 1 extensions routed through the DSTT won't reduce congestion. That using its limited capacity to replace bus routes exacerbates the deficiency. The delay allows Sound Transit to spend another year and billions more on the extensions.
My campaign for King County Executive is an attempt to make up for the Times Traffic Lab abetting Sound Transit rather than "digging into" the issue.
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