Sound Transit is required to prepare a six-year transit
development plan and annual report, as well as conduct a public hearing about
the proposed plan. This year’s Transit Development Plan 2020-2025
and 2019 Annual Report was released on July 16th and is scheduled
for public comment 12:00 p.m. -12:30 p.m. Sept 3rd.
Typical of Sound Transit they limit the comment period to 30
minutes. Even worse rather than allow those wishing to comment to
sign up prior to the meeting they’ll be required to go to the Sound Transit
sign up window beginning at 8 a.m. on the day of the hearing. They
will be called in the order they signed up. The 30-minute comment
period will severely limit either the time each commenter will have or the
number of those able to comment.
Anyone reading the TDP would understand why Sound Transit would
want to limit comment. In particular, their decision to wait until page 24,
Chapter “V: PLANED ACTIVITIES, 2020 – 2025” for their response to COVID-19.
Sound Transit is
evaluating service levels and the timing of capital projects as a result of
reduced revenues stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic
downturn. The process began in May 2020 with an overview of
potential financial impacts and will continue through summer of 2021.
The following
information is accurate as of the adoption of the 2020 Budget and Transit
Improvement Plan at the end of 2019 and do NOT reflect impacts of the COVID-19
Pandemic.
One would have thought the results from a “process that began in
May 2020” could have been included in a July 16th TPD. Instead
they chose to call it a “Draft”. Still the TPD illustrates CEO
Rogoff’s incompetent approach to public the area’s transportation problem.
First, he’s apparently “unaware” I-976 passed with TPD
projecting MVET revenue will continue, increasing from $346 M in 2019 to $407 M
in 2025. Even more important, the TPD projections for 2025
demonstrate Rogoff’s delusional approach to area’s congestion.
He clearly doesn’t appreciate the benefits of increased bus
transit capacity. The TPD reduces ST Express annual Revenue Vehicle Miles from
16.5 million in 2019 to 8.2 million in 2025, reducing bus passenger trips from
17.5 million to 8.0 million. Rogoff does so while promising to
implement BRT along I-405 and north of Lake Washington in 2024.
By comparison his TPD increases annual Link Light Rail Total
Vehicle Miles from 5.7 million in 2019 to 24.0 million in 2025. The
increase reflects more frequent service, added cars per train, and additional
route lengths with the extensions to Northgate and beyond to Lynnwood, across
I-90 to Bellevue and beyond to Redmond, and beyond Angel Lake to Federal Way.
All of the Link Light Rail trains in 2025 will pass through the
Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT). An August 2004 PSRC
Technical Report, funded by Sound Transit, “High Capacity Transit Corridor
Assessment”, concluded DSTT station lengths limited Link Light Rail trains to 4
cars and safe operation required 4 minutes between trains. Thus the
PSRC study would limit Link Light Rail to 60 cars an hour in each direction.
It’s not clear what assumptions Rogoff was using for the TPD in
2025 since the billions spent on the extensions do nothing to increase the
number of train cars through DSTT. The PSRC concluded each 74-seat
car could accommodate 148 riders so ridership was limited to 8880 riders per
hour in each direction or 17,760 total. Again, it’s not clear
what Roffoff’s TPD assumed for number of cars per hour or riders per
car. The TPD projects Link Light Rail “Passenger Trips” will
increase from 24.8 million in 2019 to 84.0 million in 2025, or 280,000 a
daily. Ridership would have to exceed 37,000 hourly during the
3-hour morning and afternoon commutes to accommodate 80% of the 280,000 daily
riders.
Clearly, at least during peak commute Link Light Rail doesn’t
have the capacity. (Even 4 minutes between trains may be optimistic because of
the difficulty of merging return trips from different East Link and Federal Way
route lengths and stops.) Riders added by extensions will reduce access
for current Link riders. All of the parking with access to light rail has
been full for years yet the TPD Capital Improvement budget includes nothing for
parking Instead Rogoff intends to use extensions to replace existing
bus routes. The TPD “Planned Activities” includes “discontinuing
service on ST Express” between Bellevue and Seattle in 2023, and between
Lynnwood and Seattle and Federal Way and Seattle in 2024.
Rogoff apparently doesn’t recognize congestion on I-5 and I-90
is not due to too many buses. He’s spending billions on light rail extensions
that don’t increase transit capacity to eliminate bus capacity into
Seattle. During peak commute those former bus riders could end
access for current Link Light Rail commuters.
It’s no wonder he wants to minimize TPD input. He
apparently has no idea how to deal with the COVID-19. It won't take until 2025
to see the his TPD problems. The first indication will be failure of the
billions spent on Northgate to reduce I-5 congestion when it begins
operation. East Link operation in 2023 will simply confirm the debacle.
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