My Voters’ Pamphlet Opposition to the Carbon Tax

The previous two posts have detailed my intent to use the candidacy for governor and the Voters’ Pamphlet statement to inform voters about Seattle Times decade of abiding If not abetting Sound Transit and WSDOT failure to address congestion on area’s roadways.  That our area’s congestion, already one of the worst in the country, is only going to increase if  they’re allowed to continue.

This post details how my candidate’s statement will inform voters why there's no need to reduce state’s fossil CO2 emissions.  Washington currently ranks 25^th in the country with 79.3 million tons (Mt) making up 1.5% of the country's 5,107 Mt total.  The state’s 10.88 tons per capita is less than 40 other states.  Clearly reducing the state’s CO2 emissions will have little effect on country’s emissions. 

The entire country currently emits only about 13% of global total, the 2017 total, 5,107 Mt is little changed from the 5,085 Mt 1990 level.  By comparison the world’s fossil CO2 emissions have increased from 22,674 Mt in 1990 to 37,077 Mt in 2017.  China emissions have increased from 2,397 million in 1990 to 10,877 in 2017 and 29% of total.  Yet they have no plans to slow current increases until 2030.  Clearly reducing US emissions will have little effect on total.

Even more important, climatologists overstate the impact of fossil CO2 emissions on global temperatures.  Again, the world’s fossil CO2 emissions have increased from 22,674 Mt in 1990 to 37,077 Mt in 2017.  However, a plot of global temperatures shows the temperatures increased from 1920 until 1945, before significant CO2 emissions, at the same rate as from 1970 to 2018.  The temperature increased from1970 to 1990 at the same rate as from 1990 until 2018 despite the 70% increase in fossil CO2 emissions.  Clearly global temperatures were not that sensitive to those emissions.

Also a plot of CO2 in the atmosphere showed CO2 increased from 320 parts per million (ppm) in 1960, to 396 ppm in 2014. Yet the rate of change from 1970 to 1990 was essentially the same as for 1990 to 2014.  Again despite the 70% increase in fossil CO2 emissions.

If increasing fossil CO2 emissions didn’t increase atmospheric CO2 ppm they could not be the reason for increasing global temperatures.  The only rational explanation was global temperatures, driven by the sun were increasing CO2 out gassing from ocean surface.  

It’s “unlikely” a Washington carbon tax will have any impact on the sun.

My Candidate's Statement on I-405.

The previous post detailed my Voters’ Pamphlet candidate’s statement for governor will be an attempt to inform voters about the Seattle Times decade long abetting of Sound Transit’s fatally flawed light rail extensions along I-5 and across I-90 Bridge.  This post details how the statement will attempt to tell voters the Times has also failed to deal with I-405, “Washington’s worst corridor for congestion.”  

They continue to abet WSDOT and Sound Transit inept approach to the I-405 congestion. The paper refuses to acknowledge WSDOT decision to impose limited HOT fees on two I-405 HOV lanes has increased GP travel times between Lynnwood and Bellevue and failed to assure 45 mph for many of those willing to pay fees.

The paper continues it's decade long abiding if not abetting Sound Transit's refusal to add transit capacity along I-405 and their plan to wait until 2024 for I-405 BRT.  They apparently don’t recognize Sound Transit’s BRT, a single bus route every 10 minutes making 10 stops between Lynnwood and Burien will never suffice.

The Times apparently doesn’t recognize HOT fees reduce commute times by reducing the number of vehicles on HOV lanes from those able to carpool to limit traffic to the 2000 vph needed to assure 45 mph.  Contrary to WSDOT claims, there’s no evidence paying tolls increases that capacity.

That the problem with the 2^nd HOT lane is it increases traffic on remaining GP lanes to where more drivers are willing to pay the WSDOT limited fees for HOT.  During peak commute they increase traffic beyond the 2000 vph on both HOT lanes, slowing traffic when most are commuting.

The current travel times on GP and HOV lanes between Lynnwood and Bellevue are only going to increase with future growth.  The only way to alleviate the problem is to limit HOT to one lane with fees raised to limit traffic to 2000 vph and use added lane to reduce congestion for all GP traffic.

On I-405 between Renton and Bellevue a Dec 25, 2017 Seattle Times article included the following:

In 2019, work crews on Interstate 405 will start building a new lane in each direction between Renton and Bellevue, as part of a series of changes that aim to improve traffic flow on what officials call Washington’s worst corridor for congestion.

Yet they continue to abide WSDOT still not beginning. That WSDOT plans to impose tolls on the new lane as well as on current HOV lane show they still don’t recognize flaws with 2 HOT lanes.  That limiting HOT to the new lane and allowing GP traffic on additional lane increases both velocities.

The Times also needs to acknowledge the slow speeds on both HOT lanes and the need for multiple stops negate any potential BRT benefit.  That If 100 of the 2000 vehicles per hour were high capacity BRT buses they could accommodate 10,000 riders; adding the equivalent 5 lanes of traffic at 45 mph. 

During peak commute, rather than multiple stops, every T/C on I-5 north of Lynnwood, south of South Center, and along I-405 could have direct BRT routes to Bellevue or Overlake depending on demand.  Riders could have access to T/C with added parking or local bus routes from near where commuters live.  Instead Sound Transit plans to spend $300 million on a T/C near Kirkland with no access from parking or local routes.

The bottom line is the Seattle Times needs to recognize WSDOT plans for 2 HOT lanes are more about increasing revenue than in reducing congestion.  That Sound Transit’s I-405 BRT should reflect real improvements rather than an attempt to appease those wanting BRT with a fraction of what’s needed.  That failing to do so will increase "Washington's worst corridor for congestion".

My candidate's statement is an attempt to "persuade" them.

Why I’m A Candidate for Governor

As promised last year I’m formally announcing my candidacy for governor.  As with my previous 8 candidacies I’m not accepting any financial support and have no expectation or desire to win.  It’s another attempt to make up for the Seattle Times failure to inform voters Sound Transit has spent the last decade perpetrating a failed approach to the area's transportation problems.  That Sound Transit failed to increase transit capacity into Seattle by refusing to add additional parking near or local bus routes to T/Cs with express bus routes into Seattle. And they plan to continue doing so until 2041.

Instead they’ve spent the decade extending light rail routed through the DSTT that will never have the capacity needed to reduce congestion.  The billions already spent are only a down payment to far more expensive additions that do nothing to increase capacity and with any riders added restricting access for current riders

Sound Transit's plan to use extensions to replace bus routes does nothing to increase capacity along the routes and reduces total transit capacity into Seattle.  The loss in transit capacity will increase congestion, especially during peak commute  Even worse, during off-peak hours, the extensions’ operating cost will dwarf fare-box revenue creating a financial black hole for the areas transportation funds way beyond 2041.

The Voters' Pamphlet candidate statement is my way to attract voters to this blog, http://stopeastlnknow.blogspot.com.    It began as a response to the Times ignoring countless emails detailing East Link concerns.  They’ve since refused to interview me, choosing instead to belittle my efforts as a “perennial losing candidate” whose only supporters  were “nihilists”.   Again my campaign is an attempt to add to the 150,000 page views of  more than 500 posts detailing problems with additional posts.  

As the blog’s title suggests, the pre-eminent example of Sound Transit’s failure is their decision to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail.  East Link will surely be regarded as one of the biggest transportation boondoggles in history.   They should have never been allowed to confiscate the bridge center roadway for half the DSTT trains.  It not only precluded two-way BRT with ten times light rail capacity, it precluded doing so ten years sooner at !/10^th the cost.  The fact Sound Transit needlessly devastated the route into Bellevue adds to the debacle. 

East Link confiscation of center roadway will also increase outer roadway congestion even with added 4th lanes.  Sound Transit and King County Metro have exacerbated the congestion with their "bus intercept" agreement with Mercer Island to halve current I-90 corridor transit capacity to terminate bus routes on island. Those unable to use transit will add to congestion along the entire I-90 corridor.

East Link operation will also halve the number of DSTT trains going to SeaTac.  Thus, neither East Link nor Central Link south will have the capacity needed for peak-commute transit. Yet operating costs for 4-car trains during off peak commute will create a perpetual financial “black hole”.  Running 4-car trains, each costing $100 a mile, every 15 minutes from 8 pm to 12:30 am to SeaTac and beyond and across I-90 Bridge to Bellevue and beyond are a sure recipe for a fare-box shortfall debacle.

The statement will inform voters Sound Transit added to debacle with the decision to extend University Link to Northgate. Sound Transit could have terminated Central Link with a T/C at the UW stadium light rail station.   It  would have provided an interface between enhanced BRT on SR520 and University Link benefitting commuters from both sides of the lake with added transit capacity for morning and afternoon commute in each direction.

Instead Sound Transit has spent $2.5 billion on a 4.3-mile tunnel to Northgate adding $860 to the operation cost for a 4-car light rail round trip. With both East Link and Central Link trains going to Northgate, operation will extend 300 weekday and 220 Saturday and Sunday routes, adding $42 million to annual operating cost. Yet the extension does nothing to increase light rail capacity so riders will reduce access for University Link commuter. 

As with East Link, Sound Transit will use Northgate extension to replace bus routes into Seattle.  Again doing nothing to increase transit ridership, reduce GP lane congestion, and little for HOV lanes.  The loss in bus routes means the billions spent implementing the extension and the millions spent annually on operating costs will be reduced transit capacity into Seattle and  displaced current riders during peak commute.

The $3.5 billion Sound Transit is spending on the 8.5-mile Lynnwood extension adds $1700 to each round trip cost.  Assuming maintaining Northgate schedules, the 300 weekday and 220 Saturday and Sunday round trips will add $83 million to annual cost.  Again, riders added will reduce access for University Link riders and using it to replace bus routes does nothing to reduce GP lane congestion and little for HOV lanes from Lynnwood into Seattle.   

The 5.3-mile extension to Federal Way adds $106 to the Central Link south round trip.  Assuming half the number of Northgate round trips adds $5.2 million annually to operating costs and further reduces access to Central Link riders who’ve already lost half the trains to East Link.  Using it to replace bus routes rather than add transit capacity does nothing to reduce GP congestion and little for HOV traffic. Clearly extensions beyond Lynnwood and Federal Way add to operating costs and loss of access for current riders. 

The candidates statement will inform voters Sound Transit 2019 budget exemplifies a decade of failure to recognize the limitations of light rail and the benefits of bus transit.  That Sound Transit claims for extension riderships are delusional and they continue their decade-long failure to increase transit riders with added parking and bus routes until 2041. 

The 2019 budget light rail ridership claim shows Sound Transit still doesn’t recognize the billions spent constructing and operating light rail extensions does nothing to increase DSTT capacity.  Without added capacity the fare-box shortfall will dwarf 2019 budget estimates until 2041 and beyond.  All to fund extensions that’ll reduce access for current riders and nothing to reduce congestion.

The statement will inform voters the only way to reduce congestion into Seattle is to increase transit capacity with added bus routes.  A hundred high capacity bus routes an hour can accommodate drivers from 10,000 cars, the equivalent of adding 5 lanes of freeway at 45mph. 

That Lynnwood and beyond and Federal Way and beyond light rail funds should be diverted to added parking and local bus routes to a T/C.  That any light rail funding should be for Ballard to West Seattle route.  During peak commute each T/C will provide access to BRT routes as needed to meet local demand, avoiding the multiple light rail stops.  Off peak routes could include stops every 15 minutes at several T/Cs. All the routes will be via a limited access HOV lane (HOT or +3HOV) to an elongated 4^th Ave T/C.  Each route will have dedicated drop off and pick up stations to facilitate egress and access.

The statement will conclude very little can be done about East Link or Northgate extensions.   The countless posts on this blog have failed to make up for the Seattle Times failure to ever include legislation requiring an audit exposing their problems in their top-ten priorities. However the money wasted on those extensions pales in comparison to the $96 Billion Sound Transit plans to spend implementing and operating light rail extensions through 2041 and beyond.

My 9^th candidacy’s goal is again to convince them or the legislature to audit.  Each year they delay means more billions wasted and increasing congestionl

Sound Transit’s Perpetual Financial Black Hole.

A previous post detailed why Sound Transit’s Northgate operation in 2021 will demonstrate light rail routed through the DSTT won’t have the transit capacity needed to reduce congestion.  That Sound Transit compounded that problem by using the extensions to replace bus routes rather than add transit capacity.  That billions spent on Prop I extensions will reduce transit capacity into Seattle, increasing congestion for the vast majority of commuters.  

This post details why East Link operation will demonstrate the operating costs of the extensions will create a financial “black hole” extending well beyond 2041. In 2021, the 4.3-mile Northgate operation in 2021 will add 8.6 miles to the current Center Link 40-mile round trip.  The longer route will require more trains and increases operating costs.   Sound Transit’s 2019 budget included $24.82 per mile costs for light rail cars but “neglected” to include any costs for any of the transit modes in 2020 budget.

Assuming $25 per mile costs, adding 8.6 miles to each 40-mile round trip will increase the trip cost for each car from $1000 by $215 or $645 for 3-car trains.  Sound Transit currently schedules the trains every 6 minutes during much of the day with a total of 180 round trips each weekday. The 180 round trips will add $116,100 to daily operating costs for 3 car trains.

East Link operation in 2023 will increase both the number of daily round trips and the number of cars in each train.  The reason being East Link will have only half the Northgate trains or trains every 12 minutes.   

Safe operation requires a minimum of 4-minute headways between trains.  Thus Northgate headways can safely be reduced from 6 to 4 minutes, allowing East Link trains every 8 minutes.  During off-peak operation Northgate train every 5 minutes can provide 10-minute headways for East Link and Central Link south trains.  Assuming 10 hours of 4-minute and 12 hours of 5-minute headways, East Link operation will increase Northgate train routes from 180 per day to 300. 

However, maximizing capacity with 8-minute headways for both East Link and Central Link trains requires adding a 4^th car.   Adding the 4^th car will increase costs from $645 to $860 per trip.  East Link operation will increase Northgate daily operation from 180 3-car to 300 4-car trains; increasing daily operating cost from $116,100 to $258,000. 

The 8.5-mile Lynnwood extension will add 17 miles to the 48.6-mile trip or $1700 per trip along with the need for more trains.  In 2024 the 300 daily Lynnwood round trips will add $510,000 to the weekday operating costs.  The 5.3-mile Federal Way extension will add $1060 to Central Link south round trip costs.  When operation begins in 2024 the 150 routes will add $159,000 daily.

It’s not clear how many riders the extensions will add. Sound Transit claims for 41,000 to 49,000 for Northgate, 47,000 to 57,000 for Lynnwood and 38,000 to 58,000 for Federal Way. However, Sound Transit makes no attempt to add parking or local bus routes for access so those numbers dwarf ridership extensions can attract by replacing bus routes. 

Whatever riders the $258,000 per day Northgate, the $510,000 Lynnwood, and $159,000 Federal Way extensions operating costs per day will result in current Central Link riders losing access to former bus riders.   During peak commute the loss could be especially egregious since other posts have detailed a 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT limited light rail capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.

The operating costs for the extensions to Northgate, Lynnwood, and Federal Way are precursors for Sound Transits light rail spine.  Sound Transits 2019 budget portends the future operating cost problem with ST3 funding ending in 2041, but expenditures “unlikely” to end. 

The only way to avoid a perpetual operating cost deficit is to avoid extending light rail.  Route existing I-5 bus routes into Seattle, avoiding the capacity loss for University Link riders.  Add bus routes into Seattle to match transit capacity with demand, avoiding the lack of light rail capacity during peak commute and high costs during off-peak operation.  Use light rail funds to add parking and local bus routes to stations for increased access.  Lynnwood and Federal Way funds could expedite Ballard-to-West Seattle routes with high ridership low operating costs as well as the more bus routes. 

Sound Transit has already wasted billions constructing light rail extensions beyond UW station and across I-90 Bridge that increase peak commute congestion.  It’s time they acknowledge the billions they’ll spend on light rail spine will not only increase congestion their operating costs will create a perpetual financial back hole. 

Sound Transit’s East Side Debacle Continues

Sound Transit’s Eastside 2020 Progress Report “Expanding your transit choices” exemplifies a decade of failure to deal with east side congestion.  Anyone with a modicum of competence would’ve never diverted half the capacity of light rail routed through the DSTT across the I-90 Bridge.  That doing so limited both Central Link south capacity and East Link cross-lake capacity to a fraction of what’s needed to meet future growth. 

Anyone with a modicum of competence would have also recognized Sound Transits confiscation of the I-90 Bridge center roadway precluded 2-way BRT with 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10^th the cost. Rather than adding transit capacity, Sound Transit has spent a decade of refusing to add east side parking and cross-lake bus routes.

A competent Sound Transit would have also recognized that confiscation of the I-90 Bridge center roadway would increase congestion on the bridge outer roadways despite the addition of the 4^th lanes.   The increased I-90 travel times already reflect that congestion.

Instead their 2020 Progress Report, pages 2-6, heralded “Milestones we’re meeting to bring new transit to the Eastside”.   The page 3 claim “Downtown Bellevue to a Huskies game in 31 minutes// opens 2023“ may benefit those going to a Saturday football game. 

However, when most east side residents commute, the billions Sound Transit has spent for East Link will result in light rail being used to replace current bus routes rather than add cross-lake transit capacity. Again anyone with a modicum of competence would’ve recognized I-90 Bridge congestion was not due to too many buses. 

The most egregious example of Sound Transit incompetence is on the Progress Report's page 10,  “Transit benefits everyone”.  While obviously true, the claim, “Trains can move more people in less space” shows they don't understand either light rail limits or bus transit options.  The claim each 74-seat car can accommodate 200 riders is “optimistic” while high capacity buses can accommodate more than 80 people.

The Progress Report claim  “link trains arrive every 4-6 minutes”  reflects the need for a minimum of 4 minutes between trains in the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) light rail stations. Sound Transit "neglects to mention" East Link is limited to half those trains or one every 8-12 minutes. 

As stated earlier, "moving more people in less space” claim is belied by the fact light rail “space” on the I-90 Bridge center roadway could have accommodated bus routes with ten times East Link capacity. (at 1/10th the cost 10 years sooner) Even more important, East Link capacity will always be limited while bus routes can be added to meet future growth.

Sound Transit exacerbates the lack of East Link capacity problem with their ”bus intercept” agreement with Mercer Island.   They and King County Metro have agreed to halve I-90 corridor bus routes in order to terminate them on Mercer Island.   The loss of I-90 bus routes when East Link begins operation will result in thousands of current and future commuters unable to use transit, adding to congestion along the entire I-90 corridor.    

Sound Transit’s East Link construction has already increased I-90 Bridge congestion and devastated the route into Bellevue.  Its operation in 2023 will demonstrate the billions spent will increase congestion along the entire I-90 corridor.  The fact East Link operation also halves Central Link capacity to SeaTac simply adds to the debacle.

Sound Transit’s “Building faster bus connection” on I-405 is equally inept.  They claim “Lynnwood to Bellevue in 33 minutes//Starts 2024” with “Stride bus rapid transit service” consisting of one BRT bus “as often as every ten minutes”.  Rather than increasing transit capacity by adding parking with access to 10 times that number of bus routes Sound Transit is spending $300 million on an 85^th St T/C near Kirkland with no parking.

Sound Transit’s page 9 claim “Transit gives you choices” with new “bus rapid transit (BRT) providing fast, reliable and traffic-free transportation choices”.  Yet Sound Transit’s 2019 budget projects the 20 million annual bus riders in 2020 will drop to around 12 million in 2025 with no increase through 2041. 

A competent Sound Transit would've recognized effective BRT also requires WSDOT limiting I-405 HOT to one HOV lane with fees raised to assure 45 mph.  The “2020 look-ahead” should include that requirement for Renton-to-Bellevue.

Sound Transit’s page 10 claims “Transit benefits everyone”.  The reality is East Link operation in 2023 will increase congestion along the entire I-90 corridor.  That Sound Transit’s version of BRT in 2024 will do absolutely nothing to reduce I-405 congestion.

Sound Transit’s 2020 Progress Report continues that debacle.

Bellevue Council Can Mitigate East Side Congestion

The February 2020 “Bellevue Its Your City” included a “Choose Your Way Bellevue” with “Countering congestion with commute options for companies”.  It detailed how “The city can help with tailored, cost effective solutions”. 

Apparently that was the city’s response to a Dec. 23, 2019 Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “As tech firms grow, Bellevue braces for commuter boom”.   The city anticipates the 18,000 new downtown jobs when added to the 52,000 currently there will boost employment higher than Seattle’s South Lake Union.

It typifies the Bellevue Councils decade long failure to deal with the area’s congestion.  Bellevue used to have a requirement new developments were restricted if drivers were delayed more than one minute at any intersection by development.  That all ended more than a decade ago despite the fact residents for years have listed congestion as their major concern with 68% doing so in the latest survey.  The council’s welcoming the addition of 18,000 more jobs is just the latest example of that failure.

It’s “unlikely” many of the added workers will live within walking distance of the new jobs.  The problem for their commute is all the routes into Bellevue are already congested.   On I-90 Bridge, the council enabled Sound Transit's East Link light rail rather than two-way BRT with 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10^th the cost.   All the I-90 Bridge commuters to Bellevue already face long delays into the city.  East Link’s share of light rail routed through DSTT won't provide the capacity for existing traffic let alone additional I-90 Bridge commuters.  

On I-90 corridor, congestion already begins before Issaquah. Yet Sound Transit has spent a decade refusing to increase transit ridership with added parking with access to more bus routes into Bellevue or Seattle.  Clearly more commuters will add to congestion.

On I-405 from Lynnwood the WSDOT decision to implement HOT on 2 of 5 lanes has increased GP lane congestion and failed to provide 45 mph for most peak commuters willing to pay.  The WSDOT plans for HOT and 2 of 4 lanes between Renton and Bellevue will increase existing congestion by forcing carpoolers to use the two GP lanes.  More riders will only increase that congestion.  

The bottom line is the council has abetted Sound Transit and WSDOT incompetency that’s already resulted in miles-long congestion on the routes into Bellevue.  East Link operation in 2023 will expose it as one of the biggest transportation boondoggles in history.  The WSDOT refuses to recognize the way to reduce I-405 congestion is to implement HOT on one lane with fees raised to assure 45 mph on HOV lane and another lane added to reduce GP congestion.

The only way to mitigate their incompetence is to force those adding workers to provide shuttle service with vans or buses on routes from near where they live to near where they work. A November 2017 GoGo website detailed how every day over 34,000 Silicon Valley employees are transported to their jobs by well-known companies such as Apple, Google, and Facebook. 

The council should insist they do so into Bellevue.