The previous post opined
the WSDOT decision to implement HOT on 2 lanes between Bothell and Bellevue
increased congestion on the remaining 3 GP lanes to where more drivers were
willing to pay for HOT than the lane could accommodate and still achieve 45
mph. That WSDOT plans to implement
HOT on 2 of 4 lanes between Bellevue and Renton will surely have a similar
problem. That travel times for both
HOT and GP lanes can be reduced by raising fees to limit traffic on one of the
HOV lanes to assure 45 mph and use the second lane to add the capacity needed
to reduce GP congestion and travel times.
This post opines the best
way to take advantage of the HOT velocities and travel times is to use it to
attract thousands of additional transit riders. A 70-ft articulated bus can accommodate up to 119 sitting
and standing riders. BRT routes
employing 100 such buses an hour could accommodate more than 10,000 riders, the
equivalent of 5 additional freeway lanes.
The only limitation
being providing commuters with access to the bus routes with added parking or
local bus routes to existing transit stations.
Instead we have a
Sound Transit whose CEO Peter Rogoff continues to demonstrate a failure to
understand the basics of public transit.
His plans for I-405 BRT in the 2016 ST3 funding package included
spending $812-$869 million on a 38-mile, 11-station route between Lynnwood and
Burien in 2024. When
completed in 2024, I-405 BRT is projected to attract between 15,000 to 18,000
daily riders. That he intends to
do so with BRT service that consists on one bus every ten minutes.
BRT works best when it’s
restricted to direct routes from one or two pick up locations along a
restricted access roadway to one or two drop off locations. Rogoff’s BRT include 5 stops between
Lynnwood and Bellevue and 4 stops between Bellevue and Burien, with much of the
route on GP lanes. It adds a total
of 1300 parking stalls, instead makes the “assumption” 20 to 85% will come from
non-motorized riders; live within walking distance to stations.
However the latest example of Rogoff's continued incompetence is the 2020 budget showing he intends to proceed with the "In-line station" at NE 85th St near Kirkland. The budget depicts it as a huge I-405 overpass of 85th with no visible station or access from parking or nearby residents. Rogoff apparently intends to proceed with spending $300 million on the station despite Kirkland's decision not to implement the two bus-only lanes on 85th from downtown that presumably provided most of the riders.
Anyone with a modicum
of transit competence would recognize that even if it worked as planned Rogoff’s
BRT would have a miniscule effect on I-405 congestion. If 80% of the 15,000 to 18,000
riders did so during the three-hour morning and afternoon commutes each of the
36 buses would have to accommodate between 333 to 400 riders a trip.
Again, even if they
could accommodate the riders, splitting the 2000 to 2400 hourly ridership
between the route from Lynnwood and the route from Burien, the additional 1000
to 1200 transit riders an hour would have a miniscule effect on I-405
congestion. Especially since
I-5 corridor commuters from north of Lynnwood and south of South Center won’t
even have access to the BRT routes.
The bottom line is the
WSDOT decision to assure 45 mph on HOT lanes will do little to reduce I-405
congestion unless Sound Transit uses the assured velocity to attract thousands
of additional transit riders. However
there is no need for a BRT route from Lynnwood to Burien or from Burien to
Lynnwood. What’s needed are direct
bus routes from all the park and rides on I-5 from north of Lynnwood to Everett
and south of South Center to Federal Way as well as along I-405 to Bellevue or
Overlake. That access to all the
routes could be increased with added parking or local bus routes to existing
parking. And they could begin
doing so in 2 years not 5.
ST CEO Rogoff needs to
be convinced or replaced.
No comments:
Post a Comment