Lynnwood Extension Epitomizes Sound Transit Incompetence.

The Sept 4^th Seattle Times B2 page Traffic Lab article “ll years later, light-rail project moves north” epitomizes a decade of Sound Transit failure to deal with the area’s roadway congestion.  They’ve ignored a 2004 PSRC study  (funded by Sound Transit) that concluded routing Prop 1 light rail extensions through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limited light rail capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction, far less than the transit capacity needed to reduce congestion.  

The Lynnwood light rail station groundbreaking ceremony is the latest example of Sound Transit CEO Peter Rogoff’s delusional 2019 long-term budget plan to spend $96 billion between 2017 and 2041 implementing “the countries most ambitious transit system expansion”.  He claims, “What is not in question is whether we will get to Everett, get to Redmond and to Federal Way, or Tacoma, to Ballard and West Seattle.”

The real “question” is what will commuters get from Rogoff’s “Prop 1 and beyond” transit system expansion?  Pre-Rogoff, Sound Transit made a major blunder when they diverted half the DSTT capacity across I-90 Bridge.  Ten years ago they could have added 4^th lanes to the bridge outer roadways for non-transit HOV and implemented two-way BRT with ten times light rail capacity on center roadway.  There was never any need to spend billions confiscating the bridge center roadway and ending forever Bellevue’s persona as the "city in the park".

Sound Transit made a second blunder when they chose to extend Central Link to Northgate rather than use the UW station as an interface between SR 520 BRT commuters and light rail into Seattle.  Many of the 110,000 Central Link riders Sound Transit had projected by 2010 came from commuters from both sides of the lake being able to use the 520 BRT/light rail connection into and out of the city.  A second Montlake Cut bridge was initially included to facilitate the commute.  Instead Sound Transit used the University Link to replace local bus routes into Seattle with a fractions of potential 520 BRT ridership. 

The Northgate extension was purportedly the result of a 2013 “Master Implementation Agreement” (MIA) with UW getting $20 million from Sound Transit for allowing them to tunnel under the University.   Sound Transit initially estimated 15,000 daily riders for the $2.1 billion, 4.3-mile extension. The 15,000 was optimistic with fewer than 1500 parking stalls for access and using it to replace Metro #41 into Seattle wouldn’t add that many riders.  Sound Transit’s more recent projected ridership, 41,000 to 49,000 by 2022, reflect CEO Rogoff’s going beyond optimistic to delusional.

Sound Transit could have boosted Northgate extension ridership by terminating all the I-5 corridor buses at the Northgate T/C.  It could’ve easily accommodated all the Sound Transit, King County Metro, and Everett based Community Transit system I-5 buses.  (Unlike East Link where Sound Transit and King County Metro agreed to halve current I-90 corridor bus routes with their “bus intercept” agreement with Mercer Island.) 

Terminating buses at Northgate would avoid much of I-5 corridor HOV congestion into Seattle and facilitate access to and from UW.    However, using light rail to replace buses into Seattle does nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  Increasing capacity requires adding more buses along an I-5 HOV lane with HOT fees raised to limit traffic to the 2000 vehicles per hour needed to assure 45 mph.   The Northgate T/C would only be used for those commuting to and from UW.

Instead the Sept 4^th article reaffirms Sound Transit’s decision to spend $2.8 billion to move the terminus for all the I-5 corridor buses 8.5 miles further north to the Lynnwood station, essentially doubling operating costs   Again using light rail to replace buses does nothing to increase transit capacity and Sound Transit claims for 47,000 to 55,000 Lynnwood Link riders by 2026 are delusional, with only 1900 parking stalls and Community Transit ridership “unlikely” to add that many commuters. 

All of the Community Transit bus routes into Seattle could continue to do so along the I-5 HOT Iane.   Doing so would have eliminated the need for Sound Transit to spend $400 million (per 2019 budget) logging thousands of trees and demolishing more than 274 houses and businesses” for the Lynnwood extension.  CEO Rogoff's decision to do so, as well as announce Lynnwood Station "groundbreaking" five years ahead of completion typifies his attmepts to make the Lynnwood Link a fait accompli.

The bottom line is the only way to really reduce I-5 congestion is to attract more commuters with added bus routes.  An additional 100 buses an hour could add the equivalent of 5 lanes of freeway, and more can be added as needed.   Each bus route could have designated drop-off and pick-up stations on an elongated 4^th Ave T/C, a clear advantage over the likely chaos for the thousands of commuters (tens of thousands per Rogoff's ridership claims) forced to use the two DSTT light rail stations every hour during peak commute.   It’s also something they could begin doing in a year.

Spending $2.8 billion on Lynnwood extension does nothing to change that reality.  Again that's only the first of Sound Transit CEO Rogoff's plans to spend $96 billion Transit's on "the countries most ambitious transit system expansion" creating a light rail spine that does nothing to reduce congestion.