Sound Transit Car Tab Mendacity

(I emailed this post to the Bellevue Reporter)

Sound Transit’s response to Initiative 976 in the Sept.7 Bellevue Reporter article, “Car tabs return to ballot in November” typifies their mendacity regarding the issue.  Prior to the 2016 vote a Sound Transit 7/8/2016 post entitled: “ST3 plan would cost typical adult $169 annually or $14 per month” included the following:

Here’s how much a typical adult would pay if ST3 is approved:

MVET

An adult owning the median value motor vehicle would pay an additional $43 per year in MVET if ST3 were passed. The updated calculation reflects an annual median value $5,333 of vehicles in the Sound Transit District.

The article claims Sound Transit would lose $20 Billion in revenue if the initiative passes.  Yet Sound Transit’s 2019 budget shows anticipated total MVET revenue between 2017 and 2041 was approximately $8 billion, and that was out of a total of $64 billion in tax revenue.  Thus it’s “unlikely” the loss in car tab tax revenue would delay projects for 20 years.

What I-405 Corridor Advisory Group Should Do

The September 20^th Bellevue Reporter article “Corridor advisory group discusses legislative session, projects at meeting” exemplifies their current flawed approach to I-405 congestion, what even the WSDOT acknowledges is “one of the state’s worst commutes”. 

The article suggests the Corridor advisory group doesn’t recognize the “problem” so it’s “unlikely” any suggestions they make will do much to reduce it.  First the lack of adequate public transit capacity.  The advisory group talks about how they propose “moving BRT stations” to shorten the current 57-minute ST express bus commutes between Lynnwood and Bellevue. 

However they ignore the fact that Sound Transit I-405 service from Lynnwood is limited to 6 ST535 buses between 6:30 and 9:30 am.  That Everett to Bellevue service is limited to 7 ST532 buses.  Clearly reducing travel times for those buses is “unlikely” to reduce I-405 congestion between Lynnwood and Bellevue.

Meanwhile, south of Bellevue, the 11-mile, Renton-to-Bellevue travel times are 60 minutes on GP lanes and 33 minutes on HOV lane.   Those travel times were the major reason the 23-mile Federal Way-to-Bellevue commute take 83 minutes on GP lanes and 51 minutes on HOV.  

Yet there are no I-405 bus routes between Federal Way and Bellevue and there are only 6 ST560 buses from Burien between 6:30 and 9:30 am. They take 58 minutes to reach Bellevue T/C because of stops at SeaTac and Renton T/C.

The corridor advisory group should “advise” Sound Transit dramatically increase I-405 bus service now rather than wait until 2024 to implement I-405 BRT.  That BRT works best with direct routes between a single P&R and destination, not a route with 10 stops between Lynnwood and Burien. 

During peak commute, I-405 BRT should provide each P&R with a non-stop bus route to Bellevue every 10 or 15 minutes, not a single bus every 10 minutes for the 10 stops along the entire route.  The corridor group should also “advise” Sound Transit to divert the $300 million they’re planning to spend on an 85^th Ave T/C with no P&R for access towards added I-405 bus service and local routes to P&R lots. 

Second, the advisory group should recognize the WSDOT plans for 2 HOT lanes between Lynnwood and Renton will, at least during peak commute, increase BRT travel times. The HOT lanes are a major reason for the current 57-minute bus commutes between Lynnwood and Bellevue. The problem being the 2nd HOT lane eliminates a GP lane, increasing congestion to where more that 2000 drivers per hour are willing to pay the HOT fees than the HOV lane can accommodate and still attain 45 mph.  

They should “advise” WSDOT to limit HOT to one lane along the entire route with fees raised to limit traffic to the 2000 vehicles per hour.  Doing so would ensure 45 mph for those willing to pay and those riding buses. The added GP lane would reduce congestion for those unwilling or unable to pay. 

That’s what “advisory groups” are supposed to do.  Abiding Sound Transit and WSDOT current I-405 plans will exacerbate the congestion problem.

Ballard and West Seattle Deserve Tunnel

The Sept 13^th, Seattle Times, B1 Page article “How light rail plans are shaping up in Seattle” typifies the Traffic Lab’s flawed approach to the area’s transportation problems. The article includes the following:

Tunnels in West Seattle and Ballard, along with other options for the international District/Chinatown and Interbay Stations could add $2 billion to what’s already an $8 billion-plus project without changing the expected daily ridership of 52,000 between Ballard and South Lake Union, and 35,000 between West Seattle and Stadium Station.  The downtown portion will serve more than 100,000 riders.

The Traffic Lab questions whether $2 billion more should be spent for tunnels to West Seattle and Ballard that won’t increase ridership.  Yet they ignored Sound Transit choosing to spend more than $2 billion on a Northgate extension tunnel with no expectation doing so would boost ridership. 

Even more absurd they have no problem with Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s 2019 budget plan to spend most of $96 billion on a light rail spine along I-5 between Tacoma and Everett, and across I-90 through Bellevue to Redmond.  They do nothing to increase capacity of light rail routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT).  

Apparently the Traffic Lab doesn’t recognize a 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, limited the DSTT capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.  Not only are Sound Transit CEO Rogoff’s claims for the Prop 1 extensions delusional, any riders added will reduce access to this limited capacity for current riders. 

Sound Transit is already proceeding with plans to  spend $2.8 billion on an 8.5-mile Lynnwood Link that will double the operating costs of the Northgate Link but does nothing to increase capacity.  The entire area will be forced to spend countless millions each year to cover the shortfall between costs and fare-box revenue with the longer routes. 

Clearly spending an additional $2 billion to tunnel from Ballard all the way to West Seattle for 100,000 transit riders into Seattle would seem to be a relative bargain.  Especially with the low operating costs for the added riders with the relatively short extensions. There would be no ST3 funding without Seattle’s 70% approval.  If Sound Transit can tunnel to Northgate they can surely tunnel to Ballard and West Seattle. 

The bottom line is the Traffic Lab  still doesn’t recognize the billions spent on Prop 1 extensions will do nothing to increase light rail capacity into Seattle.  The Ballard and West Seattle  extensions will.  The real concerns should not be about the added $2 billion for tunnels, but the fact Sound Transit intends to delay them until 2030 and 2035.  They should be expedited, not delayed. 

Lynnwood Extension Epitomizes Sound Transit Incompetence.

The Sept 4^th Seattle Times B2 page Traffic Lab article “ll years later, light-rail project moves north” epitomizes a decade of Sound Transit failure to deal with the area’s roadway congestion.  They’ve ignored a 2004 PSRC study  (funded by Sound Transit) that concluded routing Prop 1 light rail extensions through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limited light rail capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction, far less than the transit capacity needed to reduce congestion.  

The Lynnwood light rail station groundbreaking ceremony is the latest example of Sound Transit CEO Peter Rogoff’s delusional 2019 long-term budget plan to spend $96 billion between 2017 and 2041 implementing “the countries most ambitious transit system expansion”.  He claims, “What is not in question is whether we will get to Everett, get to Redmond and to Federal Way, or Tacoma, to Ballard and West Seattle.”

The real “question” is what will commuters get from Rogoff’s “Prop 1 and beyond” transit system expansion?  Pre-Rogoff, Sound Transit made a major blunder when they diverted half the DSTT capacity across I-90 Bridge.  Ten years ago they could have added 4^th lanes to the bridge outer roadways for non-transit HOV and implemented two-way BRT with ten times light rail capacity on center roadway.  There was never any need to spend billions confiscating the bridge center roadway and ending forever Bellevue’s persona as the "city in the park".

Sound Transit made a second blunder when they chose to extend Central Link to Northgate rather than use the UW station as an interface between SR 520 BRT commuters and light rail into Seattle.  Many of the 110,000 Central Link riders Sound Transit had projected by 2010 came from commuters from both sides of the lake being able to use the 520 BRT/light rail connection into and out of the city.  A second Montlake Cut bridge was initially included to facilitate the commute.  Instead Sound Transit used the University Link to replace local bus routes into Seattle with a fractions of potential 520 BRT ridership. 

The Northgate extension was purportedly the result of a 2013 “Master Implementation Agreement” (MIA) with UW getting $20 million from Sound Transit for allowing them to tunnel under the University.   Sound Transit initially estimated 15,000 daily riders for the $2.1 billion, 4.3-mile extension. The 15,000 was optimistic with fewer than 1500 parking stalls for access and using it to replace Metro #41 into Seattle wouldn’t add that many riders.  Sound Transit’s more recent projected ridership, 41,000 to 49,000 by 2022, reflect CEO Rogoff’s going beyond optimistic to delusional.

Sound Transit could have boosted Northgate extension ridership by terminating all the I-5 corridor buses at the Northgate T/C.  It could’ve easily accommodated all the Sound Transit, King County Metro, and Everett based Community Transit system I-5 buses.  (Unlike East Link where Sound Transit and King County Metro agreed to halve current I-90 corridor bus routes with their “bus intercept” agreement with Mercer Island.) 

Terminating buses at Northgate would avoid much of I-5 corridor HOV congestion into Seattle and facilitate access to and from UW.    However, using light rail to replace buses into Seattle does nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  Increasing capacity requires adding more buses along an I-5 HOV lane with HOT fees raised to limit traffic to the 2000 vehicles per hour needed to assure 45 mph.   The Northgate T/C would only be used for those commuting to and from UW.

Instead the Sept 4^th article reaffirms Sound Transit’s decision to spend $2.8 billion to move the terminus for all the I-5 corridor buses 8.5 miles further north to the Lynnwood station, essentially doubling operating costs   Again using light rail to replace buses does nothing to increase transit capacity and Sound Transit claims for 47,000 to 55,000 Lynnwood Link riders by 2026 are delusional, with only 1900 parking stalls and Community Transit ridership “unlikely” to add that many commuters. 

All of the Community Transit bus routes into Seattle could continue to do so along the I-5 HOT Iane.   Doing so would have eliminated the need for Sound Transit to spend $400 million (per 2019 budget) logging thousands of trees and demolishing more than 274 houses and businesses” for the Lynnwood extension.  CEO Rogoff's decision to do so, as well as announce Lynnwood Station "groundbreaking" five years ahead of completion typifies his attmepts to make the Lynnwood Link a fait accompli.

The bottom line is the only way to really reduce I-5 congestion is to attract more commuters with added bus routes.  An additional 100 buses an hour could add the equivalent of 5 lanes of freeway, and more can be added as needed.   Each bus route could have designated drop-off and pick-up stations on an elongated 4^th Ave T/C, a clear advantage over the likely chaos for the thousands of commuters (tens of thousands per Rogoff's ridership claims) forced to use the two DSTT light rail stations every hour during peak commute.   It’s also something they could begin doing in a year.

Spending $2.8 billion on Lynnwood extension does nothing to change that reality.  Again that's only the first of Sound Transit CEO Rogoff's plans to spend $96 billion Transit's on "the countries most ambitious transit system expansion" creating a light rail spine that does nothing to reduce congestion.