Traffic Lab STILL Doesn’t Get It

The July 9^th Seattle Times article, “Could light rail be built any faster?  It wouldn’t be easy,” is just the latest example of Traffic Lab’s failure to recognize the area’s “real” congestion problem.  It’s not the “timing” of the Prop 1 extensions, it’s their failure to reduce congestion. 

Anyone with a modicum of competence would recognize the stupidity of extending Central Link to Everett and Tacoma.  They’re all routed through a Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) that limits trains to 4 cars.  A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT stations limited capacity to 8880 riders per hour (rph) in each direction, a fraction of the transit capacity needed to reduce congestion.  That accommodating even that capacity at the two DSTT stations during peak commute is “problematic”.   

The billions spent on Prop 1 extensions do nothing to increase that capacity.  Yet the Traffic Lab continues to abide Sound Transit claims for daily riders.  The Sound Transit 2019 budget includes CEO Rogoff”s delusional claim 600,000 of the 700,00 daily riders in 2041 will come from the 116-mile light rail network.

Even a fraction of that ridership would end access for current Central Link riders.  University Link riders, who will begin to lose access in 2021 with Northgate extension, will lose access for much of the day with Sound Transit claims for 47,000 to 55,000 Lynnwood Links riders. 

East Link operation will halve Central Link capacity south of the International District station.  Thus, even a fraction of Sound Transit’s claims for 38,000 to 58,000 for Federal will end access during much of the day for current riders.  Clearly extensions beyond Lynnwood and Federal Way exacerbate Central Link capacity problem.

Even more absurd Sound Transit intends to use the Prop 1 extensions, not to add transit capacity, but to replace bus routes into the city. The problem being 70 to 80% of the Prop 1 riders’ only access to light rail stations will be at P&R lots.  Yet all the lots with access to light rail station are currently filled with bus riders.  Rather than add parking Sound Transit intends to force those commuters to use light rail.  Reducing the number of buses on HOV lanes will do little to reduce traffic there and nothing on GP lanes. 

East Link is a particularly egregious example since even its limited capacity exceeds the numbers of commuters within walking distance or able to park near light rail stations.  Again Sound Transit intends to boost ridership by forcing current bus riders to use East Link for the commute into and out of Seattle.  

Mercer Island objections led to Sound Transit and King County Metro agreeing to halve current bus schedules in order to terminate bus routes on island.  East Link operation will force thousands of existing transit riders and future potential transit riders to drive, inevitably grid-locking I-90 Bridge outer roadways and entire I-90 corridor.  

                                                                                                                Thus the only “benefit” of Sound Transit’s light rail spine will be those having access to light rail stations, mostly bus riders, will have more reliable commutes into the city.  (Something the Seattle Times conceded in a Nov 4^th 2016 edition.)

However the entire area will pay for the extensions, the additional light rail cars required, and the operating costs with the extensions.  Any attempt to expedite Prop 1 extensions simple hastens lack of access for current Central Link riders, need for more expensive light rail cars, and huge subsidies to cover their operating costs, 

By contrast the combination of the West Link through a 2^nd tunnel to a Ballard Link would dramatically increase capacity into downtown Seattle.  While Sound Transit’s projected 110,000 to 136,000 ridership in the tunnel is likely “optimistic”, any riders would increase transit capacity into downtown.  Ridership benefits from the fact 70-80 % of the link riders would live within walking distance of light rail stations, minimizing the need for expensive P&R lots.

The bottom line is there would be no ST3 without Seattle’s 70% approval. The promised West Link and Ballard Link undoubtedly played a major role in that approval. The costs for the 12 mile route in the ST3 funding proposal is only ~ $6 Billion in 2014 dollars. Operating costs with the shorter routes would be a fraction of those for the light rail spine. They need to be expedited not delayed haggling over routes or additional costs.  Any resulting delays in Central Link extensions should be welcomed. 

Sound Transit didn’t require any additional funds for their decision to tunnel all the way to the Northgate station.  They need to tunnel to West Seattle and consider doing so to Ballard.   The Traffic Lab should “Get It” and advocate for doing so.