PSRC Needs New Leaders

(I submitted the following to Senator Cantwell)

Previous posts have opined how travel times on both I-5 and I-405 could be reduced.  That Sound Transit could increase the capacity along both corridors by routing an additional 100 express buses an hour from P&Rs along I-5 from Everett to Tacoma into Seattle, and along I-5 and I-405 to Bellevue and Overlake.  That those bus routes could be assured of 45 mph commutes if the WSDOT would implement HOT fees on an HOV lane with fees raised to limit traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour.

That the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, if not abetting, continues to abide Sound Transit and WSDOT failure to do either. That Sound Transit is instead proceeding with ST3, planning to spend $96 billion over the next 20 years on “the most ambitions transit system expansion in the country” that does nothing to increase capacity; using light rail primarily to replace current bus routes.  Even the Traffic Lab concedes ST3 won’t reduce congestion.  That WSDOT plans to implement 2 HOT lanes on I-405 will increase GP congestion and fail to achieve 45 mph during peak commute.

The other major player in dealing with the area’s transportation problems is the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC).  Its objective is to help communities secure federal funding for over $240 million for transportation projects each year and to develop and maintain the Regional Transportation Plan, “a blueprint for providing transportation choices”.  They are also presumably the reason the FTA has given Sound Transit $500 million in federal grants over the last two years with $278 million for Lynnwood extension.

In 2004, Sound Transit funded the PSRC transportation staff’s August 2004 Technical Workbook, “Central Puget Sound Region, High Capacity Corridor Assessment”.  The Sound Transit 2008 East Link DEIS cited it as “a basis for more detailed planning studies and environmental analysis”.   Its “Light Rail Transit Technology Characteristics” table limited light rail capacity to 8880 riders per hour per direction (rphpd).  That light rail stations in the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) limited trains to 4 cars, that safe operation required a minimum of 4 minutes between trains, and that each 74-seat car could accommodate 148 riders. 

East Link’s share will presumably be limited to half the DSTT capacity or 4440 rphpd.   Yet the Sound Transit, East Link 2008 DEIS claimed, “the center roadway would have a peak hour capacity of up to 18,000 to 24,000 people per hour.” (9000 to 12,000 rphpd)  Sound Transit simply ignored the results of the PSRC report they had funded as a DEIS reference.   This “discrepancy” may or may not be the reason the PSRC August 2004 Technical Workbook is no longer available on the Internet. 

In 2015, the PSRC also prepared a May 8^th “Stuck in Traffic: 2015 Report” for the Eastside Transportation Partnership. It detailed delays commuters encountered on HOV lanes on all the area’s major roadways.  That only 9.8% of commuters used transit, 10.3% used 2+HOV, and 73.6% drove alone.  While the report did a good job of reporting the problem, it neglected to propose solutions and, like their 2004 Technical Report, is no longer available on the Internet.

One would think those responsible for Sound Transit getting $278 million for Lynnwood extension or allocating $240 million in annual federal transportation grants throughout the area would recognize HOV lane congestion is the result of more commuters riding in 2-person carpools than in 70-80 passenger buses.  That the way to reduce HOV lane travel times is to increase velocity by reducing number of vehicles on the HOV lane, typically 45 mph requires limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour (vph). The most effective way to do so is to implement HOT on an HOV lane with fees raised to what’s required to limit those willing to pay for the 45 mph commute. 

That the way to increase capacity is to increase the number of vehicles on the HOV lanes that are high capacity buses.  (Again, ST3 replaces current bus routes rather than increasing bus transit capacity)  Both current carpoolers and many of the 73.6% who currently drive alone would likely welcome the chance to ride public transit commutes at 45 mph.   Yet the PSRC Regional Transportation Plan, their “blueprint for providing transportation choices” neglects to even consider adding bus transit capacity. The premise for the entire PSRC 56-page plan can be summarized in the following excerpt:  

There should be an increased reliance on express lane tolls and user fees, such as a road usage charge, that are phased in as toll system technology and user acceptance evolves over time. Toll and fee rates should be set in a manner that strives to improve travel benefits for users of the express toll lane system and manages system demand during peak periods of the day. The use of toll revenues should also evolve over time towards increasingly broader uses.

That $27.6B in new revenue, needed by 2040, will come from the “Road usage charges”.  The proposal to use toll revenues for increasing broader uses raises all sorts of “questions”.  The PSRC simply ignores the reality that unless commuters have an alternative, tolls only raise their costs.  That the only way to provide an alternative is to dramatically increase transit capacity.  Instead, they continue to abide if not abet Sound Transit getting $500 million in FTA grants for light rail extensions that do nothing to increase transit capacity.

The bottom line is 15 years ago PSRC was funded by Sound Transit to conduct a "Central Puget Sound Region, High Capacity Corridor Assessment".  Since then they've devolved to where they've removed that study from the Internet and have abetted Sound Transit decision to ignore its limitations on light rail capacity.

The PSRC 2015 "Stuck in Traffic" report detailed how travel times on the area's HOV lanes have increased.  Yet they neglected to recognize the delays were due to more people riding in 2-person carpools than in high-capacity buses.  Instead they continue to abet Sound Transit ST3 plans to spend billions on light rail to replace the buses!.  That Sound Transit plans to continue its decade long refusal to increase bus transit capacity for the net 20 years: instead proposing commuters be forced to pay tolls.


Clearly, the PSRC needs new leaders.

Reducing I-405 Corridor Travel Times

A previous post detailed how diverting light rail funds to expanding bus transit capacity along an I-5 HOT lane could reduce corridor congestion.  This post details how expanded bus transit capacity along a single HOT lane would reduce I-405 corridor travel times. 

That WSDOT plans for implementing 2 HOT lanes between Lynnwood and Renton are far more about increasing revenue than reducing travel times.  That Sound Transit needs to end its decade long refusal to increase bus transit capacity.

Travel times from a Jan 23, WSDOT 7:55 am traffic report exemplify I-405 congestion.  The report’s 89 minutes for the 26-mile Everett-to-Bellevue commute and the 61-minutes for the 16-mile Lynnwood-to-Bellevue commute show WSDOT decision to implement 2 HOT lanes has failed to reduce GP lane congestion. 

The report’s 45-minute HOV travel times from Everett and 33-minutes from Lynnwood show average velocity was far less than the 45 mph WSDOT committed to provide for those who were paying I-405 HOT fees.  The problem being limiting GP to 3 lanes between Bothell and Bellevue increased congestion to where, during peak commute, the number of commuters willing to pay the tolls exceeded the 2000 per hour needed to assure 45 mph.

Meanwhile, south of Bellevue, the 11-mile, Renton-to-Bellevue travel times were 60 minutes on GP lanes and 33 minutes on HOV lane.   Those travel times were the major reason the 23-mile Federal Way-to-Bellevue commute took 83 minutes on GP lanes and 51 minutes on HOV. 

Clearly south-end commuters using the I-405 corridor also deserve better.  The WSDOT is finishing spending nearly $200 million on their SR167/I-405 “Flyover Connector” from SR167 HOT lane to I-405 HOV lane.  They’re scheduled to begin adding a 4^th lane from Renton to Bellevue this year. Yet neither will significantly change travel times because the WSDOT is planning to implement HOT not only on the new lane, but on the existing HOV lane as well.  

Again the 2 HOT lanes restrict GP traffic to two lanes, increasing congestion to where more that 2000 drivers per hour will be willing to pay the HOT fees than the HOV lane can accommodate and still attain 45 mph.  The only beneficiary of the two HOT lanes is the WSDOT since more riders will be paying tolls on 2 HOT lanes to avoid GP congestion, even if they don’t attain 45 mph.

The solution is to implement HOT on a single lane for the entire I-405 corridor with fees set to where those willing to pay limit total HOV traffic to 2000 vph.  The additional GP lanes would reduce congestion but the biggest benefit could come if Sound Transit were to add 100 high capacity bus routes an hour along the HOV lane.

The assured 45 mph commutes with the added bus capacity could attract more than 10,000 additional transit riders each hour, adding the capacity of 4 lanes of freeway; reducing congestion and the incentive to pay tolls (and WSDOT revenue.)  Instead, Sound Transit 3 plans for when I-405 BRT routes begin in 2024, require a minimum of 10-minute headways between buses, limiting frequency to 6 buses an hour.  That projected daily ridership will be limited to 15,000 – 18,000: a fraction of what’s required to reduce I-405 travel times. 

Sound Transit’s version of I-405 BRT is exemplified by their ST 3 plans for the route from Lynnwood to Bellevue T/C. It includes stops at Canyon Park, UW Bothell, Brickyard, Totem Lake, and 85^th St near Kirkland.  (Sound Transit is spending $300 million on the 85th St T/C but nothing to add parking for access.) Their current 535 bus schedule shows all the intermediate stops result in 50 minute commutes between the two.

They fail to recognize that during peak commute the 100 added buses each hour could be allocated to routes from one of ten or more P&R lots along I-5 from Everett and along I-405 to Bellevue with routes directly to either Bellevue or Overlake T/Cs. That avoiding all the intermediary stops and 45 mph speeds would slash commute times. (Current bus routes would continue)

Those working in both Bellevue and Overlake would be surveyed to determine bus schedules for each P&R to Bellevue or to Overlake.  Access to P&Rs could be augmented with local bus routes where needed.

Meanwhile Sound Transit’s I-405 BRT south of Bellevue should include similar plans to allocate the 100 buses an hour to routes from P&R lots along I-405 to Burien and along I-5 to Federal Way and beyond to Bellevue or Overlake T/Cs. Again surveys will be used to schedule bus routes and local routes needed to provide access to P&R. (Neither Metro nor Sound Transit currently provide any I-405 bus routes between Federal Way and Bellevue.)

The bottom line is current I-405 congestion is only going to increase with WSDOT's plans for 2 HOT lanes. That Sound Transit plans to spend $812 -$869 million implementing BRT consisting of a single route from Lynnwood to Burien every 10 minutes does little to reduce I-405 congestion.  That spending $300 million of those funds on a T/C near Kirkland with no parking for access does little to increase transit ridership.

Reducing I-405 travel times requires Sound Transit add high-capacity bus routes from up to twenty P&R lots along both I-5 and I-405 to Bellevue and Overlake T/Cs.  That WSDOT facilitate those routes by limiting HOT to one lane with fees set to limit traffic to assure 45 mph.  Again, until that happens I-405 travel times are only going to increase. 

Lowering the Area's INRIX Rating

The February 12^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “Seattle-area traffic, sixth most congested among big U.S. cities” is no surprise to the area’s commuters.  Kirkland based INRIX had the Seattle area as 8^th in 2014.  Congestion has increased markedly since then.   The Traffic Lab article opined, “while Seattle has America’s fastest transit growth, Sound Transit needs two decades to finish a voter approved network of high-capacity rail”. 

However a PSRC, May 8^th,  “Stuck in Traffic: 2015 Report” concluded between 2010 and 2013, the number of commuters who used transit increased from 8.6% to 9.8%.  While the 14% increase over 3 years may have been “America’s fastest transit growth”, the more important statistic, the number of commuters who drove alone only dropped from 74.4% to 73.6%.  It’s unlikely those numbers have changed significantly since then. 

The Traffic Lab article warned, “Sound Transit needs two decades to finish a voter approved network of high-capacity rail”.  They continue to fail to recognize Sound Transit’s ST3 “Prop 1 and beyond” light rail extensions routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle. That any riders added by the extensions, at least during peak commute, will simple reduce access for current riders. (A Nov 4^th 2016, Traffic Lab article conceded ST3 funding would not reduce congestion.)   Clearly spending “two decades” waiting for high-capacity rail is not the answer.

The article also reported WSDOT Secretary Roger Millar had earlier concluded “It would take $115 billion, or a $2.20 gas-tax to construct enough highway lanes to assure 60 mph.  Yet neither considered attracting more of the 73% who drove alone with added bus transit capacity on exiting lanes.  A 70-ft articulated bus can accommodate up to 119 sitting and standing riders.  An additional 100 high-capacity buses an hour could accommodate more than 10,000 riders an hour.

Limiting traffic on highway lanes to 2000 vehicles per hour (vph) has long been accepted as a way to maximize vehicle capacity and attain lane velocities of 45 mph.  Routing an additional 100 buses an hour on a freeway lane with HOT fees set to limit total traffic to 2000 vph would add the equivalent of 4 lanes of freeway traveling 45 mph. An additional 100 buses an hour would add 5 more lanes. 

Clearly adding bus routes is the way to reduce the area’s congestion.  There’s no need to spend billions on additional freeway lanes and no reason to expect two decades of spending billions each year on light rail extensions will reduce congestion.  What’s needed is for the WSDOT to increase highway capacity by implementing HOT fees on I-5, 1-90, and I-405  that limit traffic to 2000 vehicles with Sound Transit making 100 or more of them added bus routes.  

Until Sound Transit is “persuaded” to end its decade long failure to increase bus transit capacity the area’s INRIX congestion rating is only going to rise toward the top.

Reducing I-5 Corridor Travel Time

A recent Seattle Times Traffic Lab article reporting, “Everett to the north now endures the nation’s worst highway delays” is well founded. However it shouldn’t be “new news”.  A PSRC May 8^th, “Stuck in Traffic: 2015 Report” included charts showing I-5 HOV travel time from Everett to Seattle during peak commute had increased to 75 minutes in 2014.  It’s undoubtedly increased since them.  Recent WSDOT data show frequent 50-60 min. HOV travel times for the Lynnwood-to-Seattle portion.

The problem is too many vehicles are using the HOV lanes.  Limiting traffic on HOV lanes to 2000 vehicles per hour (vph) has long been accepted as a way to maximize vehicle capacity and attain lane velocities of 45 mph.  Limiting traffic to 2000 vph would reduce the 26.7-mile Everett-to-Seattle HOV commute to 35.6 minutes, the 15.2-mile Lynnwood-to Seattle to 20.3 minutes. 

Sound Transit is currently planning to spend more than $5B extending Central Link from the University Station to Lynnwood.  Yet they’ve made no plans to significantly increase parking for access to the extensions.  Thus the light rail extensions will presumably be used to replace the current Snohomish Community Transit and Sound Transit 510-512 bus routes from Lynnwood and the Metro 41 routes from Northgate.  However, the 20 to 25 bus routes per hour that will no longer be routed into Seattle will do little to reduce HOV traffic to 2000 vph.  (The fact that any riders added by the transfers will, at least during peak commute, displace current riders further reduces the extensions "efficacy".)  

The only way to maximize vehicle capacity and attain 45 mph velocity is to implement HOT with fees raised to what's required to reduce the number of those willing to pay to where total traffic is limited to 2000 vph.  (+3HOV won’t assure 2000 vph though it could be used until HOT was implemented.) The way to increase transit capacity and to minimize the HOT fees needed is to make 100-200 of those vehicles added high-capacity buses.

A 70-ft articulated bus can accommodate up to 119 sitting and standing riders.  Thus adding 100 high capacity buses to those currently operating would provide more than 10,000 additional riders each hour with commutes into Seattle; the equivalent of adding 5 lanes of freeway.  Again, the increased number of commuters riding the buses would reduce congestion on the remaining lanes, reducing the HOT fees needed to limit traffic volume.  

The added bus routes could provide express bus routes from 10 or more P&R’s directly into Seattle.  Access to the P&R’s would be provided by local bus routes through areas where commuters live.  Surveys of those working in Seattle could be used to determine how to allocate the added bus routes among P&R’s and when and where to route local buses to those P&R’s. (Local bus routes avoid the need to spend more than $50,000 for parking to provide access for a single driver)

The additional bus routes would be facilitated by converting 4^th Ave into an elongated T/C with each route having one or two designated drop off stations on one side and pick up stations on the other.  However, prior to doing so the buses could continue on an HOT lane to one of 10 or more P&R's along I-5 corridor south of Seattle.  Again, access at each P&R could be supplemented with local bus routes.

The bottom line is Sound Transit is planning to spend billions on light rail extensions that will do absolutely nothing to change the fact, “Everett to the north now endures the nations worst highway delays”. The loss of the viaduct will increase the already heavy congestion on I-5 south of Seattle. Implementing HOT on single HOV lanes with added bus routes could reduce  both HOV and GP lane travel times along the entire corridor; dwarfing the benefits of light rail at a fraction of the cost and time.

Until the Sound Transit Board, the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, the House and Senate Transportation Committees recognize that reality the area’s traffic delays are only going to increase.

Traffic Lab Doesn’t Get It.

The previous post opined Mayor Durkan urging commuters not to drive alone into the city or to ask the city for help in planning their trip was “unlikely” to reduce congestion.  Two Traffic Lab articles in the Feb 3^rd Seattle Times show they also don’t recognize either the problem or the solution. 

The front-page article “How the Highway 99 tunnel might shake up your routine” includes the WSDOT justification for the tunnel, “the reason for this project was to get the viaduct down before it killed somebody”.  It’s not clear how much reinforcement the viaduct would have needed beyond what was done to enable it to withstand boring the tunnel.  Maybe that’s why the U.S Public Interest Research Group (PIRG) in 2014 concluded the $3.1 Seattle tunnel project had earned a dubious new distinction atop the list of 11 "highway boondoggles" that shouldn't be built. 

The article “implies” not many will be affected since “half of downtown workers use transit and only one-fourth drive alone”. However a PSRC, May 8^th,  “Stuck in Traffic: 2015 Report” included “pie charts” depicting “Commute Mode Share” for 2010 and 2013.  That between the three years, the number of commuters who used transit increased from 8.6% to 9.8%, while the number of commuters who drove alone dropped from 74.4% to 73.6%.

It’s “unlikely” those numbers or “how people experience congestion has fundamentally changed” since then.  Especially since the Traffic Lab article also reported, “Everett to the north now endures the nation’s worst highway delays”. 

The second Traffic Lab article “Altered routes could become routine” continues in the same vein thanking those for the adjustments they’ve made” while the tunnel was closed, and urging they “keep doing them”.  Even tunnel proponents recognize many commuters who previously used one of three lanes on the viaduct to exit in downtown Seattle will now be "reluctant" to use one of two lanes through the tunnel to exit on an onramp to Republican St, “J-hook” back to downtown, and pay a toll to do so.

Clearly the decision to use the tunnel to replace the viaduct rather than to supplement it with additional lanes under the city was a major blunder.  As a result congestion on I-5 into the city from Federal Way will surely raise its rankings as one of the most congested in the country.  

Yet the Traffic Lab refuses to acknowledge the billions spent on light rail extension to Federal Way, like those spent on extensions to Lynnwood and beyond, will do absolutely nothing to reduce the congestion. That any riders added by the extensions will simply reduce access for current riders.  The only way to reduce congestion is to increase the number of commuters able to use public transit.

Yet Traffic Lab continues to abide Sound Transit light rail extensions and CEO Rogoff’s plans to continue their decade-long refusal to increase bus revenue hours at least until 2041.  Sound Transit needs to be “persuaded” to increase transit capacity with hundreds of additional bus routes into the city from both Everett and Federal Way. That they need to provide commuters access to the bus routes with added parking or local bus routes from near where they live to T/Cs with the buses.

The added bus routes could be facilitated with an HOT lane with fees set to limit non-transit vehicles to where the total is less than the 2000 vehicles per hour required to assure 45 mph.  (Until HOT was implemented the HOV lanes could be restricted to +3 HOV during peak commute.) That egress and access in Seattle for each route could be expedited with one or two designated drop-off and pickup locations on an elongated bus-only T/C on 4^th Ave.   

Instead Traffic Lab continues to abide Sound Transit plans to spend 86% of their $2.4 billion 2019 budget on light rail extensions.  That the more than $2 billion is only a down payment on Rogoff’s plans to spend $96 billion on what he proudly calls “the most ambitious transit system expansion in the country”. Neither he nor apparently Traffic Lab recognize his transit system expansion will do nothing to increase transit capacity into the city.  That the only thing the transit system expansion does is increase the operating costs creating a "black hole" for the area's future transportation funds.

Again, the two Traffic Lab articles urging commuters to change their commutes into Seattle while abiding Rogoff plans to continue extending light rail rather than expanding bus transit clearly show they don’t get it!

Mayor Durkan Still Doesn’t Get It

A 12/06/18 post opined Mayor Durkan needed new transit advisors.  It was written in response to a Seattle Times Traffic Lab article, “Durkan associate gets $720K to steer light-rail planning”.  It detailed concerns that Durkan had chosen Shefari Ranganathan, former executive director of Transportation Choices Coalition that’d garnered tens of billions of tax dollars for transit projects, as deputy mayor.  That the mayor needed someone with the modicum of competence required to recognize Sound Transit and WSDOT failure to deal with area’s congestion.

Friday’s The Durkan Digest, “The New SR99 Tunnel Opens Monday. But the Squeeze is Far from Over” indicates she still doesn’t get it.  Her “solution” for dealing with the “squeeze” once the tunnel opens included the following:

We can’t let up. We still need to work together to make space on the roads for transit and emergency vehicles to keep moving. If you absolutely do not have to, please do not drive alone downtown. So let’s continue the great work to keep people, transit, and goods moving in Seattle. Please go to www.seattle.gov/traffic for resources from the City of Seattle and our partners to help you plan your trip. If we all make a plan and do our part, we can get through this together.  

Urging people to “not drive alone downtown” or to use “resources from the City of Seattle to help plan your trip” is not likely to reduce the number of commuters clogging the area’s roadways.   What’s needed is to give more commuters the alternative of riding public transit.  

Sound Transit hasn’t increased bus revenue hours since Prop 1 passed.   CEO Rogoff is planning to spend $96 billion on light rail extensions that do nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle but nothing expanding bus service that would.    

Durkan needs someone who would advise her the way to “keep people, transit, and goods moving in Seattle” is to persuade Sound Transit to dramatically increase the number of riders able to use buses for their commutes into the city.  That doing so requires local bus routes from near where commuters live to T/Cs with express routes into Seattle (or Bellevue).  

That she should also use her influence to persuade WSDOT to limit an HOV lane on I-5 and I-90 to buses or with HOT fees sufficient to limit total traffic to the 2000 vehicles per hour needed to achieve 45 mph.  That giving commuters the option of fast, reliable, commutes into the city is the best way to reduce Seattle congestion.