The Expert
Review Panel (ERP) was formed in response to Washington State law requiring an
expert review panel provide an independent technical review of a high-capacity
system plan that will be funded in whole or in part by local option voter
approved measures. The
October 27th Sound Transit Board Meeting summary minutes included
the following statement from CEO Rogoff concerning the ERP ST3 review.
Sound
Transit received the final ST3 Expert Review Panel (ERP) letter which signals
the completion of the technical work required for ST3. The ERP held five meetings and worked
with staff for 18 months. The
panel concluded that Sound Transit has included in the ST3 plan all the
elements required by state law for a high capacity system plan. The elements include the level and type
of transportation services, route alignment and station locations, performance
characteristics, and social, economic, and environmental impacts”.
The ERP Sept
26, 2016 final report included the following item in the “Summary of Findings”.
Sound Transit identified
high-capacity transportation system options and studied an appropriate range of
services and technologies.
Sound Transit did so presumably in response to the following
from RCW 81.104.100(2)(b):
High-capacity transportation system planning shall include a study of
options to ensure that an appropriate range of technologies and services are
evaluated. The law requires the study of a do-nothing option and a low capital
cost option, along with higher capital options that consider use of different
technologies.
The ERP reported Sound Transit had used a multi-step process
to consider these options. Yet, the
Sound Transit 2008 East Link DEIS failed to consider two-way BRT on the I-90
Bridge as a “do-nothing or low-capital cost option” for the I-90 corridor. There’s also very little indication
Sound Transit ever considered BRT along limited-access lanes as an HCT option
for the I-5 corridor. Yet the ERP
concludes:
Sound Transit has met its
requirements for developing options.
The ERP also concludes:
ST3
proposes improvements that add major new capacity in the region’s most
congested corridors to help serve the transportation demands of people and
businesses here today as well as the more than 800,000 new residents
anticipated in the next 25 years.”
Yet the
Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC), one of the “major partner agencies during
the course of its meetings” concluded in a Sept 2004, "High Capacity Corridor
Assessment" that light rail through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel was
limited to 8880 riders per hour in each direction. Thus, the light rail spine will never have the needed
capacity.
The ERP
ST3 Benefit-Cost analysis concludes:
The ST3
benefit-cost analysis reports that over half of the benefits accrue to the
transit users and also a high proportion of benefits accrue to highway users.
Four percent is due to improved highway travel-time reliability.
It’s “debatable”
whether a 4 percent benefit due to "improved highway travel-time reliability" constitutes a
“high proportion of benefits for highway users” for a $54B, 25-year
transportation project.
ERP
estimates for ST3 extension operating costs per rider for ST3 transit
operations range from $13.56 to $17.13. The estimated cost per new rider for
ST3 capital expenditures ranges from $38.83 to $49.05. The range depends on the number of
riders and both are about 4 times current levels. Both of those numbers could increase dramatically unless
Sound Transit adds parking with bus connections to light rail stations to
provide access. (Both are also reasons for Sound Transit to use ST3 to expedite
West Seattle and Ballard light rail extensions rather than light rail spine)
The bottom
line is Rogoff can claim the ERP concluded, “Sound Transit has
met its requirements for the required elements of a high- capacity
transportation system plan”. However, the ERP definition of “what’s required” does
little to ease the area’s congestion problem. Its failure to provide a competent "independent review" is surely reason to require a competent independent audit before Sound Transit is allowed to proceed.
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