First I want to thank those who supported my candidacy for
governor in the Aug 2 primary.
The fact that nearly 50,000 residents chose to support a candidacy whose
primary purpose was to expose the failure of ST3 to deal with the area’s
transportation problems should be “wake up” call to Sound Transit and their
supporters in the media.
I believe that Bill Bryant can use the failure of the
Governor, Sound Transit and the WSDOT to address these problems to attract the
support from west of the mountains he needs to win this fall. First, he should come out in
opposition to an ST3 proposal that will spend $54 billion and 25 years
primarily on “Prop 1 and beyond light rail” extensions that will do absolutely
nothing to ease congestion on the area’s major roadways.
He should promise to use his office (and the WSDOT Secretary he appoints) to “persuade” Sound
Transit to use existing Prop 1 funds to add 100,000 parking spaces over the
next five years with free bus rides to Seattle, Bellevue, and Overlake. Operating cost would be paid for by
those willing to pay for an assigned parking space at one of the P&Rs. Doing so will result in those using
transit "paying" for transit rather than the vast majority of those who rarely
if ever use it.
Second, Bryant should promise to appoint a WSDOT Secretary
that will end plans to add HOT tolls to any roadway in the state. Along I-405 between Lynnwood and
Bothell the WSDOT should not only end HOT lanes they should open all three
lanes to general-purpose (GP) traffic and expedite adding a 4th lane
for HOV traffic. Between Bothell
and Bellevue they should open one of the two HOT lanes to GP use.
Bryant could attract voters from both sides of the state by
coming out in opposition to Initiative 732’s plan to tax carbon emissions. It purports to do the following in Sec. 2. “Findings and
Declaration of Policty”:
The people
find that reduction of Washington state's high sales tax will increase commerce
in this state; reduction of the business and occupation tax on manufacturers will
encourage business formation and expansion by reducing the burden of this tax;
the implementation and enhancement of the working families' sales tax exemption
will provide the benefits expressed at the inception of that program; and the
imposition of a carbon pollution tax to fund these actions will establish
Washington state's national leadership in addressing both climate change and
the acidification of the oceans.
Washington
is one of the 45 states that haven’t mandated reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions at the state level. The
state did, however, have a goal of reducing emissions to specific levels by a
particular year since 2008 when the state
legislature passed statutory emissions limits in order to reduce
Washington's overall greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2020, 25 percent below
1990 levels by 2035, and 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. The initiative is presumably an attempt
to meet those goals.
In
2011, Washington ranked 28th in carbon emissions nationwide with 69 million
metric tons. If I-732 is passed a
$15 per metric ton (pmt) of carbon dioxide will begin on July 1 2017. It will increase to $25 pmt on July 1
2018 and 3.5% plus inflation each year up to $100 pmt. At $25 pmt, the 69 million tons will
generate $1.725 billion.
While substantial, the state’s budgeted revenue for 2015 totaled $37.6
billion. Its difficult to believe
that the carbon tax could provide benefits anticipated in the initiative.
While
the common perception the way to reduce the state’s CO2 emissions is to
use renewable energy to replace fossil-fuel power plants, they only amount to
~7 million tons (11%) in Washington. “Renewable” hydroelectric power already provides 70%
of our electricity. The
major “contributor” in this state is the roughly 60% of carbon dioxide
emissions or 41 million metric tons from transportation. The remaining ~30% comes from Industry
(~18%), residential (~8%) and commercial (~3%).
If
the carbon tax on all the emissions is the same, approximately $1 billion of
the $1. 725 billion will come from gas taxes. Again at $25 pmt, the tax would range from 20 to 25
cents per gallon depending on whether it was diesel and the amount of ethanol
in the fuel. As the
carbon tax increased the contribution to the budget and also the cost would
increase.
It’s
not clear how the $1.725 billion will be allocated to meet the initiatives
goals. The initiative did include
the following restriction despite the fact that ~$1 billion came from gas
taxes.
The proceeds of the carbon pollution tax are not intended to be used
for highway purposes and must be deposited into the state general fund.
Again
it’s difficult to believe the carbon tax will generate sufficient revenue to reduce
Washington state's high sales tax, increasing commerce in this state; and
reduce business and occupation tax on manufacturers, encouraging business
formation and expansion. The more likely result will be a huge
bureaucracy will be set up to parse out the revenue as they see fit.
As
far as meeting any carbon emission goals, the 69 million metric tons in
2011 was already lower than the 1990 level. While more recent data may show increases, the 1990 levels
have been achieved without the carbon tax. It’s also unlikely that the I-732 approach of primarily increasing gas
taxes to reduce transportation-generated emissions will ever achieve the mandated 25%
reduction by 2035.
I-732
contends “the imposition of a carbon pollution tax will establish
Washington state's national leadership in addressing climate change”. The reality is it’s more the result of Governor Inslee’s effort to promote his stature as a national “leader” against “climate change”. His purported “environmental expertise” is belied by his support
for using huge amounts of the states energy and water resources to convert
Canadian natural gas into methanol for export to China. Why not let Canada do it rather than use
our states precious resources?
He and
I-732 need to be defeated. Bill
Bryant take heed!
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