I'll Be Back

Dear Viewers,
I'm taking a three week hiatus for a long planned visit to New York City  followed by a Canadian Pacific cross-Canada train ride. (I do like trains where they make sense.)  By the time I get back I suspect commuters will have "experienced the benefits of HOT on I-405".  The idea requiring +3 HOV to avoid paying $10 tolls will reduce congestion is absurd.  My guess is many will urge the WSDOT to revert back to the +2HOV between Lynnwood and Bothell and one of the 2 lanes between Bothell and Bellevue.   They will probably ignore you since doing so would reduce their toll revenue.
Bill Hirt
 

Bellevue City Council Ignores East Link Debacle

I presented the following to the council at their 8/14/15 meeting with Sound Transit

Bellevue City Council Ignores East Link Debacle

I first appeared before the council 6½ years ago to explain Sound Transit had made a monumental blunder when they failed to consider BRT in their 2008 DEIS as the “no-build” option for I-90 transit.   I told you an independent study would’ve concluded BRT had 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10^th the cost.   BRT would also provide transit access from every P&R on the east side, reducing congestion for everyone.  You ignored me.

I also told you DEIS claims to voters East Link was the “equivalent of 10 lanes of freeway” capable of “increasing cross-lake transit capacity by 60%” were sheer fantasy.  You ignored me.  They recently conceded East Link will be limited to one 4-car train every 8 minutes.  Their plans to require all transit riders use East Link for the I-90 Bridge commute will reduce peak transit capacity by nearly 50%.

You ignored me when I gave you copies from a 2004 report belying ST claims 4^th lanes on the outer roadway could accommodate both non-transit and transit HOV traffic needed to allow light rail on center roadway.  The lack of outer roadway capacity and lost center roadway transit capacity means East Link will inevitably lead to I-90 gridlock.

You rewrote the land use code to allow light rail construction, disrupting those who commute or who live along the route for years.  When complete, East Link will result in 10,000 transit riders inundating the South Bellevue P&R every morning and afternoon, attempting to transfer to and from over-crowded trains.  Noise from the trains will disrupt the route through Bellevue for more than 18 hours a day.  You apparently don’t care.

I could go on, for example tonight’s meeting with ST.  In 6 months they’ll close the South Bellevue P&R.  They still haven’t provided plans to accommodate all the transit riders who use it.  Yet, what are you talking about with them tonight?  Plans for what they might do more than 6 years from now IF they get ST3 funds.  The entire area will pay a heavy price for your lack of concern.

Why Not HOT on I-5?

The area’s radio waves have been filled with announcements about how I-405 commuters will soon be able to enjoy 45 mph speeds between Lynnwood and Bellevue as a result of WSDOT spending $334M to implement HOT lanes between the two.  The WSDOT has already announced plans to spend an additional $1.1B to extend them to Renton. 

The WSDOT justifies these expenditures by claiming they can reduce the congestion for everyone by adjusting HOT tolls up to $10 to maintain the 45 mph on the HOV lanes.  They also increase car pool requirements to +3HOV during peak commute to assure they can do so.  (Apparently there is some regulation requiring they maintain 45 mph on HOV lanes)  Drivers on I-405 who experience "some of the worst traffic in the state" are sorely in need of help.

However, I-405 commuters are not the only ones needing “help”.  A May 8, 2015 Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) report to the Eastside Transportation Partnership (ETP) “Stuck in Traffic: 2015 Report” included a chart showing I-5 HOV travel times between Everett and Seattle during peak commute had increased to 75 minutes and 68 minutes for the morning and afternoon commutes.  HOV travel times between Federal Way and Seattle were 55 minutes and ~50 minutes.

By comparison I-405 HOV travel times between Lynnwood and Bellevue were 40 minutes in both directions and Tukwila to Bellevue were both ~33 minutes.   If HOT and +3 car pools benefits are worthy of spending nearly $1.5B on I-405, why don’t they do so on I-5? 

The answer of course is they know it's a fraud. The +3 HOV car pool requirement and the reluctance of commuters to pay the $10 toll means the ~$1.5B the WSDOT will spend on I-405 HOT, like the $3.6B Sound Transit will spend on East Link, will increase not decrease congestion.  

Mercer Island "Loss of Mobility" Compensation

The Sept 2, 2015 MI Weekly prompted me to write the following  post:

Mercer Island “Loss of Mobility” Compensation

The Sept 2 MI Weekly asked voters to “Save the Date: Light Rail Open House and Listening Session Sept 24" with the following explanation:

The City has worked with Sound Transit to provide new opportunities for Islanders to identify their outstanding concerns related to the light rail station project on Mercer Island.

Anyone who read that would think the council is simply asking for new Islander input about the light rail station.  They’d have no idea of the problems facing Islander commuters because of the council’s failure to recognize the impact of Sound Transit’s East Link on their cross-lake access to Seattle.   

They follow that with:

In the coming month, a broad public input process will gather comments to inform additional feasibility studies, to be presented to the Board of Sound Transit. These studies will build the necessary foundation for any future Council negotiations with Sound Transit.

After 6 years of placidly acquiescing to ST demands the council is now asking for “public input” about “feasibility studies” for any “future council negotiations”.   It’s a little “late in the game” for the council to report the following:

The City Council has recently re-iterated its related concerns over general loss of mobility due to the closure of the I-90 center roadway for light rail construction.

The “loss of mobility” phrase hardly describes East Link impact. Mercer Island commuters will lose their easy access to Seattle when Sound Transit closes the congestion-free center roadway in 2017. MI commuters, being the last to access I-90, will face long lines on onramps to outer roadways.  Once on the bridge they’ll encounter heavy congestion because of the inability of the added 4^th lanes to make up for the loss of the two center roadway lanes.  

Other I-90 commuters will undoubtedly attempt to use MI P&R lots for access to transit to avoid bridge congestion and Seattle parking costs.   The Sound Transit 2016 closure of the South Bellevue P&R simply adds to their incentive.   Unless some scheme can be devised to prevent non-residents from using the P&R, any MI plans to use ST “loss of mobility” compensation for additional parking will be of little benefit to Islanders.

When East Link begins operation in 2023, Sound Transit intends to require all transit riders transfer to light rail at either the South Bellevue or Mercer Island light rail station.   They told the MI council during a Jan 21, 2014 presentation they estimated 40,000 of their projected 50,000 light rail riders will come from the terminated bus routes.  Since essentially all are from the east side, every morning and afternoon 20,000 riders will transfer at the two stations. 

Yet East Link service will consist of one 4-car train every 8 minutes.  If each 74-seat car can accommodate 148 riders (PSRC assumption) it will take 4 ½ hours for the 20,000 riders.  Thus, at least during the peak commute, light rail trains will be full well before they ever get to the island.  The lack of peak transit capacity also means many I-90 corridor transit riders will be forced to drive rather than ride adding to the outer roadway congestion for all cross-lake vehicles.  Thus East Link operation  will actually increase Islander “loss of mobility”

In conclusion, East Link will require island commuters to choose between attempting to drive on a heavily congested outer roadway or wait for space on an overcrowded light rail car.  The fact the council is even discussing some sort of “loss of mobility” compensation for this reality seems totally repugnant.

ag to drive on a heavily congested outer roadway or wait for space on an overcrowded light rail car.  (It will also perversely limit any attraction for other commuters to use MI P&R lots.)  The fact the council is even discussing some sort of “loss of mobility” compensation for this reality seems totally repugnant.